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About meriodejaneiro

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  1. Probably? I know no much about Japanese box office ... but unless it fades away from theaters like ... now... TLK is 100% sure to top Avengers in Japan. It's almost half way after just 7 days. Maybe my 100M wish is a hard achievement but somewhere in between 55 and 100 is a safe bet (i'd say 75-80M)
  2. when that type of milestone happen, Deadline makes an article mentioning it, whatever day of the week that happens. And I don't see any yet, so I presume it's still below the 1B.
  3. Are 100M totally discarded for TLK in Japan, or not quite yet? I want those 4x100M Disney 2019 in Japan (Aladdin, TS4, TLK and F2)... and the cherry on the top would be TROS (but this i'm 99.99% self-convinced it's not gonna happen). I know TROS will be considered a 2020 movie for reasons I would never understand, but for me, a movie released in 2019 will still be a 2019 movie.
  4. TS4 might end up making 440M. It's currently 20M+ ahead of TS3 at the same point, and TS3 ended with 415M. By LD weekend, Aladdin might be totally done and no milestone reachable, neither dom (400) nor ww (1100). TS4 might be on the same position as Aladdin, with no milestone reachable neither dom (450 seems too far even with a LD expansion) or ww (1100). I keep thinking TLK could be the chosen one for the LD expansion, since it seems to be suffering to even reach 550M dom, so that might be the push for late legs needed to reach that mark.
  5. Not at all (i wonder why your insistence on saying week after week that TLK drops are sharp and bad). Last week TLK made intl. 81M (mon-thu) + 72M (fss). This week TLK made intl. 42.5M (mon-thu) + 41.5M (fss ... excluding the 9.5M opening from Japan). That makes a -47.5% drop (mon-thu) and a -42.3% (fss ... but -29.2% if you include Japan ow numbers on the mix). So TLK overseas dropped -38.8% (week to week) and -29.2% (weekend to weekend). At this rate, 1B+ OS shouldn't be in danger. Adding 550M dom, i see it landing on 1.6B+ WW.
  6. Now this thread becomes interesting again (after all the toys-sells, theme park tickets, best couples in the SW movies, a bit more of TLJ/Solo ranting and all that nonsense).
  7. As per Deadline, TLK Tuesday is around 8M, a +60% bump from Monday, and a -47.5% from last Tuesday. https://deadline.com/2019/08/hobbs-shaw-dora-the-explorer-scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-weekend-box-office-preview-1202663356/ Meanwhile, The Lion King in Weekend 4 is going to create even more of a barrier for these movies with a $19M hold. Through Tuesday, the Jon Favreau-directed pic is up $444M.
  8. I have said that many times in the forums these last months ... Aladdin scheduled on july 2020 (being the 2020 summer tentpole ala "TLK 2019 summer tentpole") could have put Aladdin on BATB numbers or even higher (dom and ww). But anyway, considering all the noise around Aladdin teasers and trailers ... I accept the 1B ww as a success.
  9. That's a 38% jump from Fri for TLK, and a 48-49% drop from last saturday. Points to a 38.5M+ 3rd we (wish the actuals could put it on the 40M). Hopefully TLK weekend drop goes sub 50% and summer-august legs start kicking off.
  10. At this point, where do you see TLK heading on dom and ww charts/numbers? Dom seems a 550-575M, so top11, ahead of TDK 535M/behind I2 608M, probably going top12 after TROS (or top13 if F2 increases a lot from F1). Seems safe to say TLK won't be below 535 (unless an enormous collapse happens) neither above 608 (unless unexpected legs happen). WW, I think TLK could go top6 ahead of JW 1,671B and behind IW 2,048B (here I don't dare to say wether TROS or F2 will outgross it WW). Deadline says in some 10 markets H&S is not opening #1, assuming TLK is keeping that position (on weekend 3 of its run) in such countries like Mexico, Brazil, UK and some other big european countries (could be Spain, France, Germany). Those are big money maker countries, so we could expect good legs on them for the rest of the summer. Till last Sunday, Ch was 114M, Os-ch was 498. Os-Ch, TLK opened at 254 ow, then added 260 for the week (117 mon-thu + 143 fss). Considering a 45% drop week-to-week, on actual markets, it could climb as high as 930M+ (China included). But since Deadline assumes this weekend TLK is holding pretty good against H&S, maybe that 45% drop could be less (40%), what would put it in track of a 1B intl. (minus Japan and Italy). Japan let's say it adds 70M (though it could climb to 100 given coming Oboon festival, which boost Japanese box office a lot). Italy could go between TJB 12M and BATB 23M. That's a possible 120M extra. So TLK could split into a 550 dom + 1B ww for a 1,550 WW on a low end (top7, behind JW), or could go 575 dom + 1,1B+ for a 1,675B ww on a high end (top6, ahead of JW 1,672B). I expect TLK this Sunday to land on the 430 dom + 755/768 intl (-45%/-40%). A bit below 1,2B ww.
  11. TLK has a lead of 45M over BATB (with worst weekend performance, but better weekdays due to summer, that compensates for the weekend). So some 40 millions dom over BATB would put TLK on the verge of the 550M. I'd say 550 is a sure target for TLK, but not much further than that. Sadly the 600M seems a way too long shot, unless it stats developing very good late legs ala Aladdin or TS4, and being the Labour Day re-expansion chosen by Disney (which I think they will, cause Aladdin or TS wouldn't have any significant milestone to reach by september, and some 10M dom extra for TLK can put it closer to 600 than to 550, which psychologically could mean a victory). I don't mind fudging, I just want TLK over 600.01M dom.
  12. What about Zootopia live-action? Or would we face same emotinoless-facial-expression issue TLK is having by critics?
  13. Don't worry. TLK and Frozen2 will come to the rescue soon enough.
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