YM!

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (2 days before previews, 3 before release) 4/7/22 North Shore Cinema Mequon, WI 3:00 - 13/301 4:15 - 4/146 6:30 - 17/301 7:30 - 13/146 162% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($3.72M/$75.7M OW) 130.55% of Onward ($2.61M/$51.07M) 104% of Coco ($2.4M/$53.06M) 54% of Aladdin ($3.78M/$49.43M) Yeah these comparisons are not good. Sticking by my predictions but let’s say, 4m previews/45-52m OW. Will update with Menomonee Falls data later.

As someone who still currently watches Family Guy, I don’t even think it’s in my top 100 bits/jokes.

To be fair, the show has been better than the last two Beasts movies.

Honestly, the best thing for the Potter franchise is to rid itself of Rowling and Yates and get some new blood. Rowling being a transphobe aside, I don’t see she translates well as a screenwriter as book and movies are two different mediums entirely, which happens to a lot of writers when trying both mediums. I also think Yates is kind of tapped out at this point. Maybe not, Potter sequel series but maybe try some things events post Deathly Hallows or do a Voldemort’s rise type prequel.

Nice, what would you rate it?

Might also throw in some reports from Menomonee Falls Cinema. It’s one of the biggest in my state, according to our number god. Also will say this, I think The Bad Guys might be slightly underestimated. I don’t see $30m+ but I don’t see $10m-$15m. $17m-$25m would be my guess, it’s doing really well at Menomonee Falls, and if I compared between theaters, it’d be one of the better selling family films.

I gave the former a look this weekend, watching a few episodes with my younger cousin. Not as bad as I thought but still bad. Doesn’t work for a lot of reasons especially the switch to live action, the animation is ugly and some character choices like Vicky thirsty for the Crock(er) but otherwise it’s a usual kids’ live action sitcom and it did its job at entertaining kids. So now, before my timeline was bombarded with the Vicky x Crocker stuff, I’ll just go back to ignoring it’s existence. Just wish Paramount would let this brand die in peace like it should have in 2006.

Hmmmm, Sonic had a pretty decent bump last night, currently at 47 tickets. I won’t do another update until like afternoon Tuesday but if Sonic 2 does like 52-57 tickets by the time of Tuesday as now my comparisons are Onward and Aladdin (as Pikachu was never recorded T-2 due to a site update/outage), I think I’ll feel confident in over $55m-$60m.

Morbius ate beans in the theater for every movie I’ve been to. It’s got to stop.

Discrepancies happen with ticket sales all the time. They’re many different factors at play as well. An example of which was I tracked The Lion King at one point which according to my comparisons indicated a $250m+ OW. The Potter fanbase tends to by tickets upfront moreso than most blockbusters as well as if memory serves correct tends to have a more frontloaded OW multiplier.

To further increase how big it is, it’s selling 8.6% ahead of Justice League and 42% of Spider-Man Homecoming at the same time at my theater. Granted these are really old comparisons but Dumbledore is acting like a biggie.

Ofc. I’m thinking $45m-$55m.

Doctor Strange is a factor but opening two weeks after a big family film cause at minimum Sonic should do $40m after a four month drought is a bad idea.

Yes. The true event is next weekend.

Hmmm, well Dumbledore is overindexed here. It’s already the biggest post COVID seller that I’ve tracked here (didn’t do NWH or Batman due to timelines) as it’s already at 97% of Venom 2 and Shang-Chi’s Tuesday before release sales here.

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (4 days before previews, 5 before release) 4/3/22 North Shore Cinema Mequon, Wi 3:00 - 13/301 4:15 - 4/146 6:30 - 10/301 7:15 - 9/146 Comparisons: 38.7% of Toy Story 4 ($4.64M previews/$46.8M OW) 81.8% of Aladdin ($5.72M previews/$74.86M OW) 128.6% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($7.32M previews/$69.9M (nice) OW) 171.4% on Onward ($3.42M previews/$66.86M OW) All of these comparisons are pre-COVID but they suggest really good numbers around $65m-70m with an average of $5.275M as I especially like the Aladdin and Pikachu comparisons so long as it continues to hold. However, I’m going about my gut this time with it, while I think previews wise it makes sense and my gospel for a theater in Wisconsin shouldn’t be an apt comparison but I’ve been getting Lego Batman and Pikachu vibes from it for the past few weeks now. I think if $60m was likely or even $55m+, it’d be at 50 tickets sold here. Especially when Sonic will probably skew older and male-er than most of these comparisons, alongside the kind of numbers @Porthos has been seeing in one of the biggest movie markets. 36 is respectable but I do worry about the bump leading up to this Tuesday. I’m thinking $45m-$55m with around $4.5M-$5.0M in previews.

They really should’ve moved it to March 11th or May 20th when Turning Red and League of Super Pets moved. Much better spots.

However until NWH, it was the third best live action Spider-Man film. Fr, though SM3 is solid but held back by too many arcs in so little time. The action though still holds up and is arguably better than most CBMs recently. Even with crossover event status, I do think trimming a few minutes wouldn’t hurt. Blockbusters have been too long recently.

Even acknowledging the rumors which we won’t have a clear concept of until the credits roll, at best those are like cameos.

Special treat for you late 90s and early 2000s kids out here:

“Keep Spidey’s name out of your fucking mouth!”

The medium has nothing to do with telling a cohesive narrative.

Sony just gave us a tidal wave of new release dates. Venom 3 - 10/6/23 Through the Spider-Verse (formerly Across The Spider Verse Part Two) - 6/23/23 Madame Web - 4/5/24 The Amazing Spider-Man 3 - 7/5/24 K-Pop: Demon Hunters - 2/16/24 Tut - 12/19/24 https://www.deadline.com/2022/04/sony-release-date-slate-1234990463/

MorbiusSweep!!!

https://www.deadline.com/2022/03/morbius-box-office-8m-Thursday-previews-1234990463 Damn! $8m previews for Morbius?!