Going to also guess what rounds up the potential scale of what could make the top ten:
Captain America: Brave New World - Feels like a number between Cap1 (~175m) and Shang-Chi (~225m) is right for it providing solid reception. Think the angle of Hulk shenanigans is an interesting sell but whilst Falcon doesn’t get same level of fandom vitriol from bigots (I mean it’ll still be there but probably more subdued) like when a girl enters the MCU, I don’t think he’s a kickstarter. There’s another potential issue but I want to wait a few months when the trailer drops to see if it pans out.
Coogler’s new movie. Feels more like a Creed at the box office than a Black Panther but I think it could really surprise us.
Snow White - The Snow White IP though belonging to a big name doesn’t feel much like a kickstarter and feels like it’ll end up on lower Disney remakes but I think mid 100s can happen due to lack of female appealing films Q1.
Thunderbolts* - Personally feels like the weakest of the Marvel projects this year but has a pretty decent thirst for action films during the lead up. Feeling mid 100s again for it, but if The Bear crew manages to make something great - I’ll go a bit higher.
Elio - Though I think IO2 will be a hit and Pixar has the least hurdles of all the Disney brands, I hate the spot for it as it’ll face competition it’s not ready to handle especially as sci-fi animation but can work as there’s lack of family films this summer until Bad Guys 2.
Kendrick Musical - I think the pitch on paper sounds funny and Kendrick is a huge star, think it could be a potential sweeper given the dearth of comedies (Naked Gun remake too but I feel a bit more optimistic on Kendrick)
The Bad Guys 2 - Though I don’t think it’ll break records with Universal’s strong marketing department and a beloved first, I could see a decent sized jump for this one.
FNAF2 - Dislike the first one with a passion, it worked with its target audience as video game movies are the new live action remakes, copy the source fill with references watch box office explode.
The Bride - Think the concept itself feels of interest and could be surprise.
Wicked Part 2 - I said my piece on reception to Wicked 1 will determine this one’s performance as most of the good stuff in the musical happens in the first act.
Did not include Fast Eleven and Blade because I think those movies are 2026.