YM!

Guardians 3 had no competition on the lead up, and thanks to good WOM legged it to a solid total. Mario was dying down and tbh if it weren’t for the last minute WOM/reviews, it was looking for a sub 110m OW. If anything one could argue, DP3 has slightly more on the lead up. Think Wolverine gives it a boost but it won’t be as big as some fans hoped, Logan was the swan song during peak CBM times and it still did about the same as other X-Men movies and even then X-Men box office wise was never as big as Spider-Man movies. Another boost could be I think the recent CBM cynicism might help the movie due to the comedic satire vs hinder but as of rn, even when the trailer blows up due to fan craze, I still don’t think that we should go gung-ho on OW because of not just the R rating but also I think OW will depend very much on WOM/reviews (don’t think 200m opening was even happening during 2021-2022 hypothetical). Shawn Levy is a good journeyman though so who knows. Thinking around 125-150m OW, the rest depends on legs. Feel like at absolute best, maybe 170m if the marketing campaign is aces/if reviews are raves/if WOM is strong amongst the GA+nerds. A lot of variables need to go right for this to be the behemoth and as of rn, I would rather be realistic than optimistic.

Think an Incredibles 3/Nemo 3/legacyquel Monsters 2 with grown up Boo could do it even with MU reception but yeah 100m would be great. Feeling 90-110m rn.

1. Ratatouille 2. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Spirited Away 4. Black Panther 5. The Prestige 6. Bambi 7. West Side Story 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Who Framed Roger Rabbit 10. Coco/The French Dispatch 12. The Sixth Sense 13. Coco 14. Wall-E 15. Beauty and the Beast (1991) 16. PoTC: Dead Man’s Chest 17. Scream 18. The Incredibles 19. Hunchback of Notre Dame 20. The Emperor’s New Groove 21. The Lion King (1994) 22. Princess Monomoke 23. Tangled 24. The Wind Rises 25. Moana 26. Cinderella (1950) 27. Toy Story 3 28. Luca 29. Lilo and Stitch 30. PoTC: Curse of the Black Pearl 31. Toy Story 2 32. Fantasia 33. Monsters Inc 34. Soul 35. Kill Bill Volume 2 36. Turning Red 37. Kill Bill Volume 1 38. Chicago 39. Nightmare Before Christmas 40. Signs 41. The Last Duel 42. Inside Out 43. Prey 44. The Rock 45. The Muppets Christmas Carol 46. Scary Movie 47. GoTG Volume 2 48. Black Panther Wakanda Forever 49. The Menu 50. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe 51. Face/off 52. The Muppets 53. Aladdin (1992) 54. A Goofy Movie 55. High School Musical 2 56. Mulan (1998) 57. Iron Man 3 58. Guardians of the Galaxy 59. Finding Nemo 60. Up 61. Toy Story 4 62. Encanto 63. Howls Moving Castle 64. Jojo Rabbit 65. Unbreakable 66. Captain America: The First Avenger 67. Sleeping Beauty 68. Pete’s Dragon (2016) 69. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 70. National Treasure 71. Ford v Ferrari 72. Avengers: Infinity War 73. The Princess and the Frog 74. Phineas and Ferb: The Movie: Across the Second Dimension 75. Lincoln 76. Tarzan 77. Enchanted 78. Scream 2 79. Tron 79. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 80. PoTC: At Worlds End 81. Hocus Pocus 82. Wreck It Ralph 83. The Waterboy 84. Spy Kids 85. Return to Oz 86. High School Musical 87. The Princess Diaries 88. National Treasure: Book of Secrets 89. Real Steel 90. High School Musical 3: Senior Year 91. Zootopia 92. Kim Possible: So the Drama 93. Cinderella Man 94. The Lion King 1 1/2 95. Frankenweenie 96. Tangled Before Ever After 97. Ant Man and the Wasp 98. Bionicle: Mask of Light 99. Bionicle 2: Legends of Metru Nui 100. The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl

Seems like judging from the stories this was probably a Frozen II scenario in which rewrites were likely around late 2022-early 2023.

True but like Austin Abrams has nothing else on his upcoming schedule.

My heart will be double campaign for both Ted and Abbott.

Omg its Stewie and Peter Griffin

Which is why Ghostbusters won't be relevant outside of people who can't let go of 80s nostalgia.

https://deadline.com/2024/01/marlon-wayans-goat-universal-monkeypaw-1235791769/

Solid OW for Mean Girls but suspect bad legs due to poor audience reception. Think the musical surprise hurt (I'm still reminded that my cousin my age lost all interest in Mean Girls when I told her it was a musical and my family didn't care for the stealth musical in Wonka makes me wonder if it'd leg stronger if they were honest) Beekeeper is also doing quite nicely, thinking it could do 20m for the three day if not for the shitty winter storm. Anyone But You is looking noice as it seems likely to do 100m at the end of its run, making me feel maybe rom-coms are back (think the Scarlett/Channing one could be big this summer). Migration’s trek to 100m is in jeopardy with a bad hold but still think it's possible due to the lackluster calendar. In hindsight, weak legs made since with poor PostTrak scores with adults (like worse than Wish). Considering Elemental is the only animation original within the past seven years to do 150m domestic, not feeling too optimistic about animated originals right now even with rave WOM.

Lmao its Ethan from Euphoria

Feel like late March is odd move. The post Easter spot seemed better for both the movie and theaters. It now has to share attention with Dune 2, KFP4 and Ghostbusters (though granted think low to mid 100s is where KFP/GB/GxK are heading), so odd move. It's like no one learned last March.

Never thought I would see the day a romcom got number one again. That's pretty cool.

True. It's also possible they film late 2024 vs the heyday going on currently.

Yeah I'm not sure if he can do all three.

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You know maybe the movie in which only two members has superpowers doesn’t need a 200m budget. A 100-150m budgeted Thunderbolts makes more sense given scale and makes it more likely to be profitable. Considering how the GA has shifted against CBMs last year, a more conservative budget approach for some projects is a smart move. Then again, they didn’t save Shazam 2 or Blue Beetle.

Having seen the DM4 leaks it’s very much what you’d expect from a fourth film and that makes me lower my predictions for it. Though a superhero spoof seems interesting enough that I think it’ll at least do the same as DM3.

Honestly same

I think Levy is alright journeyman. Like reservations on Free Guy and The Adam Project, those legged it out just fine. My youngest cousin watched the former so many times it became a mainstay at home lol. The former had strong legs at the box office, and tbh if it didn’t open when people were still skeptical of going to the movies, think it’d probably do around upper 100s, maybe low 200s. Like I don’t care for Jon Watts Spideys but he’s a good journeyman that the GA usually eats up.

The plot leak is real and no Vector returns. There’s leaks of the new characters and the new villains.

I buy that they got a cast locked, DCULeaks is pretty reliable, was more so referring to the long cycling in casting. Though it’s retrospective, do think the strikes have some factor on deal-making but iirc the roulette stuff was mainly pre and post Actors strikes.

Though I don’t think Yuen walked due to the script issues as if anything the current script seemed written around him once they bought in the Beef crew, and scheduling issues are still a very plausible thing, I do think the reason why we haven’t had a F4 cast announced is definitely due to actor skepticism on being in the MCU for likely another ten years. Especially when the future does look dubious. As for the rest of the cast, I’m not sure they’ll leave but I don’t have much hope in this project financially anyways.

RPK backed it up and r/DCU/DCEUleaks have gotten everything new about the DCU right and the Blade production problems right.

Feeling more and more sure an MCU hard reboot is coming after whatever Secret Wars is.