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Everything posted by YM!
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
YM! replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yes but $20 a piece. -
That 5 films a year thing isn't set in stone but I'm pretty sure Universal is doing at least three a year (so 1-2 DWA/OD and 1 Illumination). As long as their quality animated movies and kids, animation will continue, audiences will just get more selective. Minecraft, I can see it doing Angry Birds numbers. Rampage should make decent numbers. WAG however needs the most work. Scooby and Lego 2 should both do $150M/$300M at worst imo. (Maybe $100M/$300M for Scooby). TTG has the best chance for $100M between it and Smallfoot but both can go sub $100M/~$150M. Say what you want about SPA and Sony but they have been able to get 4 out of 6 of their films in the last two years get ~$200M WW, WAG only has 2.
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In terms of market domination, Disney has some some serious competition from Universal in the animation field. Illumination and Dreamworks can pose as a challenging combination, with each one taking a spot in each season with up to 5 a year (2 from DWA, 1 from OD, and 2 from Illumination). In 2020, Minions 2 can do $900M+, Sing 2 should do around $600M-$650M, Trolls 2 can break out and do Madagascar 2 numbers ($180M/$500M-$600M), and even if Croods 2 has an IA5 like performance except higher DOM ($80M-$100M) but lower OS and does $400M. WB also has a lot of strong franchises too, DC, Harry Potter, Conjuring, Monsterverse, the IT duology, and other strong performers in the future with franchise potential like Lego 2, Scooby, RPO, Minecraft, Rampage and potentially Bond.
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If there's a good thing about Disney and releasing at least they aren't making numerous sequels in the future to their animated movies in the next few years or try to do something like 4 animated movies are year like Sony and Universal. Dreamworks slate from 2019-2021 is all sequels except for Everest and Spooky Jack. Illumination is all sequels and an adaptation for the next few years.
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Disney should have good years to come and they make decent to great movies with Pixar, Marvel and WDAS. Most of their remakes are garbage and inferior to the originals and Star Wars is hit and miss for me. And it's good to see them trying to do originals again (Nicole, Wrinkle In Time and Artemis) But their strategy is borderline monopoly in 2019 especially the Summer, and if what DAJK says is true with their theaters relations I'm kind of disgusted. I mean I'm cool with Disney and have no real beef but I kind of don't want a four peat from 2016-2019.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
YM! replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I wouldn't take everything to heart. It's a small sign. My theater is one of many. There's times when it gets things right in terms of presales (IT over Homecoming and Baby Driver over Baywatch) but it can get things wrong (Kingsman over Apes). -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
YM! replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Thor Rangarok North Shore Cinema Mequon, WI (32 days before previews, 33 days before release) 6:00 - 15/301 - Ultrascreen 9:00 - 30/301 - Ultrascreen 11:55 - 2/301 - Ultrascreen Running at 95% of Homecoming when Homecoming was at 17 days before release. Blade Runner 2049 North Shore Cinema Mequon, WI (4 days before previews, 5 days before release) 7:00 - 33/301 - Ultrascreen 10:30 - 2/301 - Ultrascreen Running 30% ahead of Kingsman at the same point. -
Probably Coco with around BH6 numbers. The Star has a very wide range from $25M-$60M DH2 should do Ted 2 numbers. However I also wouldn't be surprised if Coco underperformed even with the barrenness. Disney will give it the short end of the stick in marketing and Thor and JL both seem likely for $300M+ and can attract families too.
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The Croods: A New Age | Nov 25, 2020 | RIP Cloris Leachman
YM! replied to CJohn's topic in Box Office Discussion
It will hurt badly for two reasons: 1.) The original's audience will be young adults by now and the first one wasn't a juggernaut 2.) The Netflix show will still be relevant However otherwise Universal will dominate animation in 2020. Minions 2 and Sing 2 should be the heavy hitters and Trolls 2 can also surprise. -
The Croods: A New Age | Nov 25, 2020 | RIP Cloris Leachman
YM! replied to CJohn's topic in Box Office Discussion
I know this is early but I'm starting to think this'll do anywhere from $80M-$115M domestic. That 7 year wait will hurt it in addition to the TV show it has. -
It's not like animation is going to be totally screwed, Disney and Universal basically have all the heavy hitters and will be fine for years to come. Besides I don't think discount deals provide a major boost to box office either. Animated films with TV show presence or been somewhat seen before like TTG, Lego 2, Dragon 3, Croods 2 (which could have a big drop due to the 7 year wait), Spongebob 3 (again also thinking drop since they used the CGI element before) and Animated Spider-Man need a new angle to stay fresh and to draw in adults. For example, TTG could make it a crossover with the older Teen Titans and Lego 2 could take advantage of their shared universe and bring in Robin, Batgirl, and maybe a Ninjago character or two and first and foremost be a good movie.