YM!

There’s a very good chance Avatar 3’s OW does over Sonic 3 Domestic if it stays in the same spot. I’m thinking that too, so Sonic could get a few PLFs. Either that or try Christmas Day.

Those two together should be more so around 4-4.5m, but you’re right it is too low.

Saw Way of Water again last night. Still best film of the year.

If by some miracle Puss follows Sing’s holds, it’ll be at 81M by next Sunday with an 11M weekend (-43%). No idea what the total could be but it could match the first.

It is PVOD. So it won’t be hurt too much.

True but that was a family film but Frozen did gain quite a bit more fanbase.

The only cause for concern is not being in the top 10 list for Fandango as I can't recall an example where a film did 300m+ but miss the list. But even then it's Quorom statistics is really great, I can see Dead Reckoning over it but not Barbie or Oppenheimer, especially when it's tracking as one of the strongest of the summer period.

Blue Beetle is also the first Hispanic superhero lead with a majority Hispanic cast. It could be big with the right marketing and with the power set being a teen with an Iron Man esque alien suit could be fun. When even Morbius did 70M, I don't see why it would go sub 100M. BOP was R-rated and arguably knee caped by the pandemic and TSS had a bad first movie to overcome, a still strong pandemic and day and date taking away at least half it's potential gross imho.

I doubt Puss in Boots does the minimum of $20m to top it.

Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $175m/$465m The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m Aquaman 2 - $90m/$365m The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$350m The Flash - $95m/$260m The Marvels - $100m/$255m Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $90m/$115m/$255m Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $85m/$250m Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m Dune Part 2 - $75m/$230m Wonka - $45m/$225m Across the Spider-Verse - $70m/$210m Blue Beetle - $65m/$200m Trolls: Band Together - $55m/$190m John Wick: Chapter 4 - $55m/$185m Barbie - $40m/$180m Wish - $35m/$55m/$165m Fast X - $65m/$150m Migration - $25m/$150m Kraven - $50m/$140m Ghostbusters - $25m/$140m Oppenheimer - $35m/$135m Shazam: Fury of The Gods - $50m/$130m Elemental - $35m/$130m Creed 3 - $45m/$120m M3GAN - $40m/$100m Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25m/$100m

I expect much better reviews because of Gerwig and a higher total but I can see a smaller than expected OW like 35-45m and everyone dooms and glooms but has very solid legs and goes to 175-200m. I think 50m is the ceiling OW wise, this seems like more a WOM affair.

Tbh with comic con that weekend prior to The Marvels, I can see them announcing the cast of Kang Dynasty to help build up tickets sales but I expected Marvels to dominate that comic con.

Tbh Barbie reminds me so much of Detective Pikachu, I’m hesitant to make a prediction on it.

Honestly, I think they’re rushing the Kang stuff and in trying to outdo Phase 3, they’ve made the committee criticism a lot more evident in hindsight. The standout this phase film wise was Wakanda Forever (because Coogler is easily the best director in the MCU against Gunn) and Shang Chi, and tv wise I dug Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk but the rest I liked but had flaws, very mediocre or in some cases bad. Phase 4 should’ve been a return to basics with SamCap making a new Avengers to fight against Masters of Evil and gone smaller in scale.

I don’t think it’ll do that low. I think a similar fall from Wakanda Forever, 275/695. It’s not great but depending on budget it’s fair enough.

I think a 90/245/600 run seems right. A slight decrease from 2 and a sign of diminishing returns but not the utter decimation and still a good hold relatively speaking. If I were to predict every MCU movie from now until Secret Wars, here’s what I’d do assuming no China: Quantumania: 90/245/600 Guardians: 185/460/925 Marvels: 115/290/675 New World Order (I think it’ll be a psuedo Hulk movie like Ragnarok): 135/345/700 Thunderbolts: 70/195/515 Blade: 60/160/400 Deadpool 3. 165/420/800 Fantastic Four (I think it’ll be mediocre like the Watts movies but loved by the GA as Feige wants to get it right): 100/300/700 Kang Dynasty: 200/450/1300 Shang-Chi 2: 110/325/700 Armor Wars: 80/225/495 Secret Wars: 275/625/1800

Different circumstances. Besides half of the stuff Phase 4 film wise got positive reception. We won’t see an utter collapse in my opinion until maybe Blade because it’s the most troubled production wise. For goodness sake, Morbius did a 40m opening on just the Marvel name and that wasn’t even MCU.

It’s because they have eight projects a year to sell and they don’t want to risk shutting one out in favor of another. They used to do 2-3 trailers for a Marvel flick and get them out early. Like the July release at the absolute latest would get a February trailer, but now we wait until April because lord forbid whatever Disney+ piece gets eyes taken away from it.

An utter collapse won’t happen unless Kang Dynasty+Secret Wars are awful. Diminishing returns won’t equal collapse. The current floor for an MCU opener is still $70m.

There’s a lot of potential hits. Aquaman will likely be the big fish. Wonka and Migration seem likely candidates for 150m-200m+, and Ghostbusters will do around Bumblebee numbers. I think we’ll get a repeat of 2018 again: Aquaman 2: 365m Wonka: 200m Migration: 165m Ghostbusters: 120m

Let me pimp out my club right here:

I think the remakes skew more adult than the animation because of the animation stigma so what effects the animation shouldn’t effect Mermaid. I mean, the Marvel movies would’ve done about the same without the pandemic. As for the field trip comment, lol at Fast X and Transformers being superior choices when they skew more adult and are likely to do sub 150m.

PVOD doesn’t really affect domestic performance and only slightly more than OS. Look at Sing 2 for instance.

Andrew Tate is an actual human trafficker, please don’t do this both sides bullshit.

I’m pretty sure Blue Beetle will go to that 9/22 WB has for DC movie unless it’s something weren’t seeing like Teen Titans Go Through The Multiverse or some bs. I think Trolls 3 will move to start of November to fight against Dune 2.