TwoMisfits

Only if it breaks $50M OW...anything less and this is gonna start looking really bad...

"The entire box office weekend is totaling around $73M." From Deadline... This is kinda terrible. No way to spin the overall box office state. As for Fall Guy demo...Gosling is not a female (or male) draw for under 25s... "Women under 25 were the lowest to show up yesterday for Fall Guy at 13%, with men over 25 leading at 38%, women over 25 at 33% (who gave the pic its best grade of 93%) and men under 25 at 16%."

Religious films tend to all drop into the $10-$25M Total DOM range unless they have a hook to make them go wider...that said, they always tend to make that minimum range and they tend to not cost much, so they are a nice "book the 60 seat screen" option for mid-to-large size theaters who just need material that will sell X amount... It's the same for anime bookings and Indian film bookings for DOM ranges...Cinemark has gotten really good at juggling these 3 types of films to make sure they are never selling nothing in their screens - every showing usually gets something b/c they churn this type of material a lot...

We have established Ryan Gosling is no Tom Cruise when it comes to being a draw (or even being his own personal stuntman)... And for someone saying "will movies now adapt TJ Hooker?" - if Fall Guy had hit, they surely would have...but now that idea will go back in the box.

Gentleminions was a US trend for Minions Rise of Gru - and it was ENORMOUS for 13-25. The movie was 89% under 25 OW. And hugely, the 13-17 demo made up 34% of the crowd. Or, more specifically, HS (not counting all the college kids who also went in on this - see the INCREDIBLE 89% under 25 number) delivered $42.534M of the 4 day $125.1M. That's incredible. That's one of the highest ever opens by demo for 13-17s...even counting Marvel and Star Wars. And it was all because of that gentleminions trend. When I saw the movie opening week, my theater was packed with dressed up teens and college students. It was like arriving to prom as the chaperone.

It's the start of when some college students are in exam period and finished. My daughter will be done Monday, but many kids in her school were finished all their finals Friday. So, that's kinda why "summer start" - you'll start seeing weekdays do better all through this month til June and July go bonkers and then August reverses the trend slowly...

Digital subscription update - aka this is why folks stay home... So, 2 of my Black Friday and previous cancel deals were up this month...my Hulu with D+ no ads add-on and my HBO Max. I just tried to cancel both (and got sucked back into one). Hulu and D+ no ads has cost me $5.98/month, but was gonna rise to about $15/month, so I canceled it. And then, Hulu decided to offer me another 6 months at the same price. I mean, how to do I pass up D+ with no ads for $5.98/month with Hulu effectively free? So, I didn't. And now, I don't have to rush finishing X-Men 97 (nor rush watching the 2023 Disney movies I still haven't gotten to yet). Max has cost me $2.99month with ads and was gonna rise to $10/month. I canceled that, and they offered me $5/month with ads. I continued to cancel b/c my spouse wanted this, and the only thing I've really been watching (b/c I have FoodTv elsewhere) is NBA and NHL stuff...and the Philly teams are out and I still have a few more weeks. So, I can wait for Black Friday again. And I can spend this month seeing if I missed anything on Max I wanted to watch. Notice, all 3 are available at ridiculous monthly low costs compared to a movie ticket, especially if you're always willing to cancel (which I am, b/c I tend to cycle these, unless the deals are too good to cycle)...

If there's some teenage tiktok on "bring your IF stuffy and watch in your PJs" and it goes wild...I don't know about it. It's no crazier than a dancing horror doll craze. I mean, Regal gave away tickets on the 1st day of presales to its subscribers with its point return plan...and the movie gave away 1-for-1 tickets if you bought the 1st day, so IF has pushed some ticket buying early. Maybe it gets out there...maybe...

Mine are aging out of IF. I mean, as the mom who's seen so many of these movies, it reminds me of Detective Pikachu without any of the Pokemon. So, while it's "new", it's somewhat derivative, at least when watching the trailer. Now, I don't know if that helps or hurts IF - if Pokemon excluded or included more folks. I know very little kids (0-5) don't watch live action. The whole reason to go live action is to try and grab some non-family audience on top of family audience. If the non-family audience here would not be caught dead at IF without a kid, that might also hold down box office, So, I'm not on any $50M+ DOM OW for IF (it would be great, but not what I'm expecting unless John Krasinski is a female 25-85 rock star draw on his own). Maybe it does that...but then, it would be b/c it brought out a Gentleminions audience of a huge 13-25 turnout...or a Top Gun Maverick 40+ Caucasian turnout. Not just b/c it drew families. See Margaret last year for a movie that JUST drew families of girls aged 6-12 (which this movie seems like it's targeting). Then again, I've gone to 1 2024 movie this year, which is so unusual for me...and you do kinda fall out of the habit and the "buzz"...so maybe this is hitting somewhere huge and I just don't know it. PS - On the point of breaking the movie habit again - Covid forced that, so people were clamoring to get back. Nothing forced breaking the habit this year, so that's gonna be much harder to overcome to get folks back. I mean, my kid still has his movie sub, but we're just saving each month's ticket...it's been that slow for their interest...

Well, March proved people wanted to go to movies during a big holiday/school break corridor... March = spring break/Easter June/July = summer break Half of November = Thanksgiving break Half of December = Christmas break And GA is okay only going then, and possibly not every one of those breaks if the movies aren't good enough. It's gonna be hard to keep a business alive with real business only 4 months/year...

Reading the tea leaves, the post premiere social media seems like this might be a single, and definitely not a home run. Too long in the 1st act, doesn't hit the ending/3rd act, etc... No idea how RT critics flow these days, but I'd expect a GA-light/Fan-heavy turnout b/c reviews will be okay, but not enough to move the needle (say right around fresh)...but this has always been uber-fan-heavy since the 1st, so no change there...

Well, I can't see Apes going under $25M DOM next weekend, so all May can do is get better now... Garfield, don't let me down:)...

I mean, I picked this and Inside Out 2 to battle it out to win the year DOM...maybe I have some Brazilian roots I don't know about...

Well, they kinda cheated to do okay...true net profit would have been negative if it was regularly done ($2.9M loss vs last year's quarter loss of $3.1M)... "The company reported a net profit of $24.8 million, compared to a loss of $3.1 million in the prior year, though, helped by a gain of $27.7 million from an income tax benefit due mainly to the release of valuation allowances in certain foreign markets. The diluted earnings per share was 19 cents, against a per share loss of 3 cents last year. That beat an analysts estimate for a loss of 21 cents per share.

Roughly 40% drop from Tuesday...and 14% from Monday...

So, reading the article title, he ruled out all results for the Fall Guy between $30-$50M...seems a risky approach...

Not the thread...but I agree. I think it's the perfect timing for the open, and it's gonna open in a great weekend spot. I'd join a Bad Boys OW DOM over The Fall Guys OW DOM...heck, I might even join one against Apes (which I think is also gonna disappoint, but probably not as bad against folks' initial Jan 2024 expectations as Fall Guy will)...

It's not that Sonic 3 will do $200M more domestic than Sonic 2. It's that Sonic 3 will at least match Sonic 2 DOM and probably do a little more...whereas Mufasa is a huge wildcard for DOM - matching The Lion King seems really unlikely, so it's a question of how much less. And that's where the discussion for Christmas is. If your family can only afford one movie, which one will they pick? I have gamers and now older kids, so my kids are an easy vote. It will be interesting how the families split - boy/girl, young/old, etc. And quality will matter for both to see the split. Mufasa will be a lot of family audience with a likely decent sized young adult to older adult female base. Sonic 3 will have a very large teen/young adult male base to help buoy its movie on top of families. Who is coming out to movies now...and who will at Christmas? Seeing this month and last...I think the males currently have it for turnout, but anything can change by Christmas.

Local Cinemark final sets for this weekend - Fall Guy got ONE extra late night showing at my PLF for 2.25 screens (and 9 showings Fri/Sun and 11 Sat) - at the non-PLF, it got an extra screen to have 2 screens (8 showings Fri/Sun and 9 Sat)... So, even if walk ups are bonkers, there's just not gonna be a lot of open space to walk into...aka, Cinemark does not have faith this is breaking out wildly above its current presales-to-weekend-multiplier landing spot (aka, no $50M+ incoming, I don't think)...

It will help, but animated is an easier sell to kids than live action. You use live action when you want to appeal to an older crew more (see the recent Ghostbusters). So, we'll see how this does. It feels like Pokemon (aka Detective Pikachu) without the Pokemon...maybe that helps, but maybe it doesn't... I'm not as optimistic as the Twitter post...

Not for IF - that movie does not have all-day matinee price at my Cinemark...

No? It's shaping up to be another Christmas season where everyone splits the holiday money and goes away mostly satisfied... A super, a gamer movie, and an animated musical...pretty much the only thing left to schedule is the Oscar dramas...

But, it does have it set. IF is getting the same opening sets at my Cinemarks as the Fall Guy - 2 screens (1 PLF) at PLF theater, and 1 screen at non-PLF theater.

Inflation is cumulative. So the rate now may be lower, but you're feeling all the pain of the increases from before plus still the lower rate now. It hurts more and more as time goes on if wages don't keep up...and they haven't. So, unless you get deflation or some extended period of time when wage increases exceed inflation, you don't escape the pain of what came before for a while. Okay, smart stuff done for the day - time for movie box office.

I was thinking it looks like Red Notice - big stars, big stunts, a twist, and a sorta-but-not-totally rom com. It's why I've been thinking it's not catching. Netflix has made these movies available for free, so why pay $20/person for a date night weekend?