TwoMisfits

2006 - top movie for the weekend was Glory Road at $13.5M for the 3 day...that was for all movies open that weekend (with 4 new wide releases)...

Suicide Squad had a few big advantages over BvS. One, BvS had already REALLY lowered expectations for it. Everyone went it expecting an awful movie and got to be happily surprised it didn't totally suck (not the other way around of expecting a great movie and getting wildly disappointed). Two, it had an empty August. When you are competing with few movies fighting to kick you off the screen, you get to ride the dog days of summer out. There was no big supers event til November, so nothing fans were jonesing for (unlike Civil War 5 weeks after BvS). And three, they emphasized the HUMOR and FUN! I mentioned before, it seemed fans in 2016 were craving fun over dark and serious, and there were not that many movies that went that direction, especially with supers (except Deadpool, which wildly exceeded its expectations)...Suicide Squad's marketing with Harley and Joker was key to winning back the disaffected fans who were looking for the DC fun...Edited to add: And #4 - no baggage from previous movies/takes. Suicide Squad as a team was an never-done-before blockbuster movie take. We've had acres of Batman and Superman movies, and the recent Superman ones were off-putting to some, but no Suicide Squad ones...and fresh takes on things also did well in 2016 vs retreads of the same old, same old...

To be fair on the multiplier - that was Easter weekend 2016. Everyone had off for Spring break for the Friday (and probably Thursday). So, you didn't have the usually slightly low Friday that normal weekend movies get and you had a higher-than-normal Thursday night (with schools and probably parents mostly off). Thus, you burned off more demand sooner than usual, leading to a higher weekend and a lower multiple. It's still a bad multiplier, but I think only somewhat worse than Cap3's 2.27x DOM, which was an initial shock for many b/c that was a really good movie... So, if I was making my list, I'd have BvS not as an outright loser 1 on a 5 point scale, but I'd put it at a 2 just b/c it did definitely underperform and it did put the whole universe in jeopardy and it wasn't a good movie in a year where we had some good (Dr Strange) and great (Cap3/Deadpool) supers.

I would skip Dory for Trolls, but it's a group event, so I didn't get to select the movie. Seems Pixar is always the safe choice for this group (at least the pizza will be good!:)

Okay, I finally have at least one theater deciding on their set-up - at my local 12, every movie gets 1 full screen from Rogue 1 to Monster Trucks (if you get 3d, you get a split of 2d/3d showings, but still only one total screen worth)...So, just the screen limitation is gonna keep anything from a monster breakout. I am gonna predict now with the current projected screen counts (and weather), but if suddenly something loses 500 screens, I might update that movie:)...I don't have great confidence in any of my projections, except that no movie is probably breaking $30M in the 3 day (which is probably a gimme:)...and I actually don't have any movie breaking $20M for the 3 day (although I think Patriot's Day and a few holdovers will be close)... Patriots' Day (wide) $19.1M Monster Trucks $16.5M (gotta keep $60M DOM in play:)... Live by Night (wide) $7.2M Bye-Bye Man $4.5M Silence (wide) $3.3M Sleepless $3.1M

I'm holding off til I see how my local metro area allocates screens at their theaters - it's Tuesday afternoon and they still can't decide...guess it's gonna be a fun weekend to predict!

See, I disagree (and yeah, I've seen it, too:). I almost never say this about animated movies b/c you accept it as part of the concept, but parts of the movie were SO unbelievable to me that they took me out of the movie. Was it funny? Yeah. Was it sweet? Yeah. But sometimes the writers just wrote in stuff that I couldn't buy and that took away from the movie for me. I gave it a B...and the movie goers with me (all of the younger variety) shared my opinion. For them (and me), it was a definite step down from Zootopia and Kubo (our top 2 animated movies) and a 1/2 step down from SLOP (which did need to be funnier after a really good 1st 20 minutes), being about equal to Moana (which we found good but entirely forgettable). We skipped Dory, but are seeing it Friday, and we still haven't seen Trolls/Sing, so that might move Storks down even lower for me...it was a very good year for animation, and that's probably why it suffered b/c it just didn't quite measure up...

We were pretty darn accurate this week - it amuses me that I was farthest off on the lowest movie (I'm gonna blame the snow - yep, that's my excuse for being that far off...that and I cheerlead non-sequel/non spin-offs:)...

Production Budgets for all 2016 Disney movies Finding Dory $200M Moana $150M Zootopia $150M Jungle Book $175M Rogue One $200M Captain America 3 $250M Dr Strange $165M Alice 2 $170M The BFG $140M Pete's Dragon $65M Queen of Katwe $15M The Finest Hours $80M The Light Between Oceans $20M Total Production Only Budget for Disney for 2016 $1.78B (Now, probably add in a $1B-$1.5B for advertising and you have their rough costs for the movies)...so, say $3B or so total cost for their movies...with an almost total tentpole strategy (maybe 2-3 were not intended at tentpoles)... Now, they made more than $7B in revenue world-wide for 2016 (1st time for this), so they spent a lot of money, but still made a lot of money in 2016...but it's not quite as amazing when you see how much they had to spend to do it... PS - I was too curious and decided to do this myself:)...

If the cost of the films matter in their BO successes and expectations, Disney would probably have to drop off your list. Disney and Pixar movies usually cost a LOT (Rogue One's production costs ONLY was $200M and it didn't have a single actor/actress earning more than $2M, and Moana's production only cost is rumored to be $150M), so Disney's theatrical return on costs is gonna be a lot lower than other studios (since they plan these tentpole movies to drive merchandise, merchandise, and more merchandise). I would love to see Disney's total production and advertising costs for their movies compared to JUST their theatrical revenue (which we know was $3B). I bet the year doesn't look quite as uber-spectacular then (although it should still be really good, since they only had a few "busts")...

Seems like you liked one of my Top 10 Bold Predictions (No Dec 23rd wide openers over $200M DOM) - of course, you skipped Jumanji, so maybe you're holding off on your $200M+ DOM estimate...

I'm just happy a non-sequel, non-spinoff movie likely won the weekend. I've been waiting for Sing to do it, but if it's Hidden Figures, I'll take that, too:)...1st official weekend of the year of 2017 might be setting a nice new trend for the year (at least for January:)...of course, it will turn out Rogue One squeaks it by $10...

Disney was the easiest choice as a winner and you made that one...so, just b/c it's easy, doesn't make it not right...

I gotta agree with Illumination being a big winner. Everyone thought Secret Life of Pets would be big, but NOT #4 DOM big! $368M+ DOM was huge, beating EVERY supers movie but Cap3 and the 1-2 punch of Zootopia and Jungle Book (Who had SLOP as the #3 summer movie, c'mon be honest - okay, I had it at #2 on another game, but I've been big on Illumination). AND a few months out, Sing was supposed to lose handily to Moana, and instead, it's gonna top Moana DOM (with WW still to be decided). That's a winner, even if you don't like Illumination. They took 2 ORIGINAL properties and made them soar (and only had $75M production budgets each) - that's REALLY hard, even in animation.

It's limited by the number of theaters and screens it got (just like Arrival was). It's only in 2471 theaters, and in those theaters, it's mostly just getting one screen. In good news, that means pent-up demand is not being satisfied, so we should see some long legs, like Arrival. It would not surprise me if the film doesn't actually drop more than 20% next weekend - even with all the new openers. It will not lose a single screen and MLK weekend should be box office gold for this film.

It's my top sleeper movie of the year:)...If it's any good, I think it will have the legs to push itself into the #10 spot for DOM BO this year...over Thor, Coco, Pirates 5, Cars 3, etc, etc, etc:)...

My #9 prediction - Beauty and the Beast OW DOM < $130M (I put it at $125M), but with final DOM $400M+. I made this prediction on the BaTB game, but I figure since I seem like an outlier on it, it can count as bold here. I feel pretty confident on this one b/c of the release date and the way women go to the movies:). If you want more analysis, see my other posts:). And my #10 prediction - How about a Top 10 DOM movies for the year?:) And 10a - Star8 will be 1st by over $300M - is that its own bold prediction?:)... 1. Star Wars 8 2. Beauty and the Beast 3. Spiderman Homecoming 4. Justice League 5. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 6. The Lego Batman Movie 7. Despicable Me 3 8. The Fate of the Furious 9. Wonder Woman 10. The Star Yes, I did not put a Disney/Pixar animated movie on here, so maybe that's bold itself. I think Disney has a DOM year carried by 1 movie per season - Rogue One remnant this winter, Beauty and the Beast in the spring, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in the summer, and Star 8 in the late fall/early winter and their other movies disappoint slightly or greatly for Prates 5 (Cars 3, Pirates 5, Coco, Thor 3, Untitled Next Live Action whatever that is if that comes out and keeps the July date, Born in China). Update: I realize I changed my mind on what my top super movie is (Spiderman/Justice League), and I'll probably keep changing it every week or two b/c I think they will be really, really close:)...

I agree - R rated female comedies can work - I had Bad Moms as my summer sleeper last year on another game...and I was the only one. That one felt really good when it exceeded practically everyone's expectations but mine:). But this comedy looks BAD!:) It looks like it's forcing all the humor in the trailer and the movie concept - a kidnapping of American women overseas - is not one many people are gonna wanna laugh at. I mean, I give it one thing - it's original and I love original - but, it's still got to make me wanna laugh...

Prediction #7 Snatched DOM < $50M Total. Preview looks like awful...and there are only so many fans of the 2 leads that will show up no matter the movie. And b/c I've got another lined up:)... Prediction #8 Pirates 5 DOM < Baywatch DOM (and 8a - Pirates OW DOM < Baywatch OW DOM) - I have that little faith in a #5 sequel and that much faith that fans may just want something really silly Memorial Day weekend (especially since Snatched will have crashed and burned) - it's a time to lighten up and party at the beach/pools, and I think Baywatch couldn't have a better timed release. It worked for the Hangover sequels and they weren't any good...

Yup, and why pick b/c it could be either til we know which one is any good:)...I'm leaning Justice League to make up for Coco not hitting its desired male audience and it becoming the Thanksgiving movie and carrying through as a family Xmas movie...but it could as easily be Spidey b/c he's one of the most popular characters and if it's finally a good Spidey movie, it will be unstoppable:)...

#6 Prediction: Top supers movie DOM and WW for the year is NOT Disney's...

Coco will not make Top 5 DOM for the YEAR. Some mix of Lego (both movies), DM3, Cars 3, Emoji, Captain Underpants, and either Boss Baby/The Star/Smurfs will all top it:)... Now, this may be a little negative for Coco, but someone wanted bold, and I can see this happening for all the reasons I said before:)...

Prediction #5 (A bolder one for DMan7) - Coco will not make the top 5 for animated films DOM Box Office. I don't care how well Disney advertises this one:)...

4th prediction - Coco < $200M DOM over its run. Strange opening date when Day of the Dead will have passed weeks before, repetitive "music saves all" plot, human animated character, boy character when huge supers movie opens 5 days before, etc.

3rd prediction - No matter how good they are, all 5 major releases on Dec 22nd (Jumanji World, Pitch Perfect 3, Ferdinand, Downsizing, the Six Million Dollar Man) will make less than $200M DOM for their full BO runs. Star Wars 8 will just eat the entire Domestic BO, like it did for Star Wars 7. Now, if any move dates, they fall out of the prediction, b/c it's based on Star 8 just taking all the Christmas Family BO dollar.