TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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2nd non-Plf went all in on Panda
NEW
KFP4 - 3.5 screens - 19 showings (loses a few late nights - it's 4 screens by day)
Cabrini - 1 screen
Imaginary - 1 screen
4 foreign films split - 1.5 screens
Returning
Dune - 3 screens (more late shows than early)
Bob Marley - 1 screen
The Chosen - .5 screen
Madame Web - 1 showing
Gone
Demon Slayer, Wonka (finally gone), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, some foreign films
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Posting this week's sets to show Dune and KFP2 possible strength and holdover wipeouts...
NEW
KFP2 - 2.5 screens (+1 screen - 4 PLF showings - both 10ams and then on a single screen for next 2 early shows, so .6 on PLF)
Cabrini - 1 screen (no change)
Imaginary - 1 screen (no change)
Shaitaan - 1 screen (new)
Oscar Returns (4 movies) - 1 screen
Oscar Shorts - .5 screen
RETURNING
Dune 2 - 4.5 screens (18 showings - 5 PLF, 13 reg) - lost 2 PLF equivalent showings, that's it. Gonna be a nice weekend possible.
Bob Marley - 1 screen
Madame Web - 1 showing
Chosen - 1 showing
Foreign film - 1 showing
This is 13.25 of 14 screens - .75 is being held - probably for either an extra Oscar nom movie or foreign film
GONE Bloodbath
Demon Slayer (easy come, easy go), Migration (finally dropped), Argylle, The Beekeeper (finally dropped), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, multiple foreign films, multiple different Oscar one show films for Oscar week
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46 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
Somehow somehow there were that many people that found the time to see a near 3 hour movie on a nonholiday weekday...
It's senior citizen opening day - Mondays have senior discounts in most chains...
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Xfinity has finally closed the KFP4 deal (which had been going on since presale open) saying "all rewards claimed" - so, that free ticket bump should be mostly over (I mean, there could be some stragglers who claimed codes but haven't bought yet)...
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2 hours ago, Starphanluke said:
I’m seeing the narrative pop up online that since this debuted similar to Oppenheimer, it will also gross $900m+. Whole lotta people are going to be disappointed.
I still see it ending in the $600-700m range, which is a great result. Of course it would be great to see Dune go higher, but you have to keep those expectations in check.
Also, Deadline is sticking with the $50m prediction for KFP4 which feels… optimistic.
Every Xfinity subscriber in their rewards program could get a free ticket or 2 free tickets, depending how long they've been a subscriber, redeemable on Fandango for up to $15 (buyer pays any overage).
There are 31.42M subscribers, all eligible for the rewards program (but you figure some don't bother). That's a crapton of free ticket redemptions possible floating around that beats anything Angel Studios ever had floating around...you assume almost all are never redeemed...but then again - kid movie sequel...and free is way cheaper than the TMobile/Atom $5 tickets...
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33 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:
In terms of Box Office earnings, do the free tickets have zero value even though they are filling up auditoriums, drastically reducing the ATP? How is that handled in terms of forecasting based on filled seats? @abracadabra1998, how does that affect your Cabrini forecasts, for example?
I noted that Angel Studios is promoting Cabrini as opening on Thursday, March 8, International Women's Day, so no Thursday grosses will be rolled into Friday/OW, right? (Akin to Chosen, etc., in that respect.)
On the Angel website, I also noticed they are promoting a 21% Early Bird Discount through tonight at certain theaters (AMC seems to be participating, though not Regal), which also affect ATP for anyone purchasing through there. Angel also has a Group Discount booking option. I clicked on it, and for 5 or more tickets, you get an equal number free (based on $15/ticket price). That is probably encouraging church groups, etc., to buy in blocks. I had noted strong local sales at certain local theaters for this coming weekend. How does all of the discounting get built into forecasting?
One more thing: Angel Studios site has a live Total Pre-Sales Tracker. They have currently pre-sold ~292,000 tickets, and you can watch a scroll as more tickets get bought around the country. Not sure if this total is only for those bought through the Angel booking site itself. They do not seem to be directly connected to Regal's sales portal, for example, so Regal sales would presumably not be updated live. And yes, they do have a "Pay It Forward" button again ala SoF.
Free tickets ALWAYS have box office value. I've just never been certain what that is.
It's normally going to be close to the full price or the full price - like the "free" pay it forward tickets to Cabrini are up to $15 and the free XFinity tickets to KFP4 are also for "up to $15", and then the buyer is charged excess. So, I assume the box office is the full price of the ticket - the payer is just different.
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Be careful with KFP2 walkups...these Infinity free tickets (1-2 per member, which is way better than $5/ticket) have been around for weeks to use...so I expect most of the current presale strength comes from those (and whatever subscribers didn't want Dune).
That said, there will be reported revenue for all those tickets, so I do expect a base level for this movie to be much higher than if the deal didn't happen...
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So, numbers/brains were all too low...hearts were all too high - and if we'd just split the difference, we'd have hit opening weekend on the nose...I think there's a movie coming out that talks about getting everything in the body working together:)...
Hmmm...I think I'll still stick to the $325M DOM number:)...
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3 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:
Yeah it’s early Deadline. Not exactly words to live by.
$34m at minimum should be the target for the day. Hopefully higher. $30m would be rough.
Yeah, I like that minimum:)...to be honest, my area has been rocking all day today...but the main college in the area started Spring Break this weekend, so I don't know how much is "college friends got off class early" and how much is this doing REALLY well today. I'm inclined to think the former, but who the heck knows til we get numbers:)...
I just would like a really, really big weekend...it's been awhile...and one that shocks after previews to the upside would be the cherry on top...
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https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/
"The $190M Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros sequel is heading for a $30M-$34M Friday, inclusive of $12M previews, for what’s shaping up to be a $70M-$80M at 4,071 theaters. Lower estimates stem from the fact that this movie is not a younger-skewing fanboy movie, rather older. Those over 25 attended last night at 77% with guys over 25 repping 53% of the crowd.
Last night’s Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak exits were from another galaxy at 5 stars, 94% positive. Women over 25 at 24% were the second biggest demo followed by men under 25 at 15% and women under 25 trailing at 8% (that portion of the Zendaya fans haven’t showed up yet). The 25-44 demo repped 53% of the audience. Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 22% Hispanic and Latino, 13% Black, 10% Asian and 7% other."
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Okay, $12M is much better:).
Big numbers are still possible...
PS - College spring breaks are aplenty next week, so expect Sunday to not be as big a drop as normal...
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Okay, so I'll be the downer.
If a great campaign with amazing stars with a greatly received movie can't break 3 digits OW, then we're in for a long year...and I hope a lot of studios have lined up $5 tickets, b/c that seems to be the only way (barring something uber-uber-huge) to bring in large swaths of GA folks who are just as happy to watch anything on the couch and get them talking and get WOM to bring in more GA.
So, we won't have any $100M OW (without days of previews - I won't discount someone playing that game) til Memorial Day (or maybe even longer) without a discount ticket deal bump...if even then...
I mean, I shouldn't be surprised, though - but I was hopeful. But then I didn't buy tickets...and since Aquaman, my kids haven't wanted any tickets this year, and haven't been bugging me about it, so it's fallen out of their interest and their friends' groups' interest.
Maybe I'll still buy tickets...and we'll get legs to $300M in the wasteland. Sigh.
Okay, changing back to hope - c'mon 10x+ weekend multiplier...
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Damn, I lose power last night and everyone goes sadz:)...when a movie still hasn't even opened...and we just had a movie blow the roof off tracking and presales to weekend multipliers just 2 weeks ago...
But I digress...instead, let's keep on the sour path with more March presale sets to see that big weekends aren't gonna save the rest of the month...nothing, save Ghostbusters, is looking at even $50M possible from the opening set, let alone $100M...aka, don't think high on KFP4, when the family theater isn't booking it...
PLF 14
Kung Fu Panda 4 - 1.5 screens (.5 PLF - split with Dune, 1 reg)
Cabrini - 1 screen
Imaginary - 1 screen
Arthur The King - 1 screen
Ghostbusters - 2 screens (1PLF, 1 reg)
Non-PLF 12
KFP4 - 1 screen
Cabrini - 1 screen
Imaginary - 1 screen
Arthur the King - 1 screen
Ghostbusters - 2 screens
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7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
The increases are outrageous.
Yeah one may discount Thu jump by clubbing THU+EA but there's no excuse for FRI and SAT.
On one side its great to have big opening but for the predictor side its always frustrating to see a late surge when the run prior is not suggesting any such. Hopefully this is one off and it drops tomorrow 😈 but I won't be too hopeful of that.
I've been pointing out all the reasons you couldn't just go with numbers from before, b/c none of the numbers from before, the circumstances of release, or even the historical 1st in the series would be a good comp for varied reasons (Covid, PLF availability, seat availability, competition and movie viewing into the open, etc).
Some things need a little heart to predict and not just the brain number patterns:).
Hopefully, Shawn finally puts my OW in his range this week:). I mean, I've pushed him from that early $50M floor...I just have a little more ways to go...
Edit to add:
Final sets at my 2 Cinemarks...
18 showings (6 PLF/12 reg)
20 showings (all reg)
So, 4.5 and 5 screens at the 14 and 12. So, definitely enough for a 3 digit open to be possible. Not quite a Dr Strange 2-like clear out (nothing has matched that lately), but definitely bigger than Oppy got for OW (albeit smaller than Barbie for showings b/c of show length - same number of Barbie screens)...
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3 minutes ago, M37 said:
That may be true for that specific film, but I only chose it because it was a March release. Could easily sub out any number of GA-friendlier titles without a $5 deal and the overall point would stand
The catch-22 is that films that tend to have a very strong PLF draw also tend to over-index in bigger markets broadly. So yes you get the higher ATP in said big markets, but lower numbers in the smaller markets, which drags down the PSM ratio; getting a larger slice of a smaller pie overall
But is that gonna be true here? Usually it's b/c middle America won't come out for a movie at the numbers cities will...but I don't think that's the case here. I see Dune playing coast to coast, and if anything, struggling in some non-auteur loving cities.
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Final List - I have 5. Since I have so few, I'll just post it here and Grim can count it if he wants...
1, Oppenheimer
2. Spiderman - Across the Spider-verse
3. Mission Impossible 7 Part 1
.....
.....
4. Barbie
5. Super Mario Brothers
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Having now seen this and most of the 2023 movies...
Give this movie ALL the Oscars...
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OT: Since I couldn't go out for a movie, I stayed in and watched Oppenheimer. Damn - I did save the best movie for last this year! Is it perfect - NO. BUT, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor awards should be locked. As should Best Movie, b/c this movie vs Holdovers is like comparing the JV HS football team to the KC Chiefs. They are so not in the same league, it's not even funny.
As for this movie's grade, I give it an A-/B+. The acting, knowing the nominees, was actually BETTER than I expected. It's honestly the best acting I've watched from the top 2023 movies - heck, I'd have awarded more male nominees if possible, but I get that they had to choose, and Murphy and Downey were the best 2.
If anything, I think the attempt to make this movie mirror the type of concept like Titanic, where you have a main "current day" plot interwoven, but left alone for long stretches, to tell the historical main plot, didn't QUITE work. It's why I give it an A-/B+. It was just a little too much and yet not enough - too long a stretch where you have to try to piece things together or remember them, whereas the continuity of building the bomb was so clear. I also didn't love the 1st 5-10 minutes - I get it for attention getting and to show the mental issues he had...but it was rough.
But this is the only movie (I think) that I even got to to A- range last year, so obviously for me, the Oscar winner. Heck, I would have it sweep all the main categories it's nominated in...
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Woke up with sniffles, so no free movie watching today. Since I was about 1 of 5 people at the afternoon Ordinary Angels showing, just gonna leave the tickets "bought"...
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35 minutes ago, M37 said:
Even a “bad comp” can be useful, here I specifically used Aquaman 2 for pace purpose only and then comped to Oppy for value in this market
But interestingly enough, they had a nearly identical PSM for this market ($2010/tix vs $2004), likely because PLF demand for Oppy exceeded capacity, limiting Thursday sales and pushing them into weekend, while Aquaman 2 buyers took whatever, but just naturally underindexed for this market. If anything, those comps might slightly overvalue Dune II if Orlando sees more of a standard index for it
Oppy also is a "bad" comp for ticket value b/c it also did NOT have all PLF...Barbie had all Dolby and pretty much any PLF not named IMAX. To get value, you have to use a movie that got ALL PLF, not half or less...
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45 minutes ago, M37 said:
Depends on the context. MCU films for example have weaker walk-ups, because so much of the audience pre-buys, whereas something like John Wick 4 had very strong walk-ups, because the audience had a larger share of casuals/GA/action people who buy much later including day of the show
It’s not a criticism of Dune or it’s appeal to say walk-ups/pace will be lower, just an expectation that it will be closer to the fan-heavy films (in range of Avatar 2), in that it’s audience is more likely to buy early than late
JW4 has strong "walk ups" from $5 deal users. It's why it's also a bad comp. Walk ups for movies that appeal to $5 goers (which something like Margaret last year did not), always have better "walk ups" than similar movies due to the "$5, what the hell" eventual factor...you can buy your ticket literally 10-15 minutes after movie showing start with the deal...and most trackers stop tracking at 1st preview movie showing of the day...so you miss all those late online, but not presale, buyers...not true walk ups, but in walk ups.
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1 hour ago, M37 said:
Took me a minute to realize your chart was in reverse (X-axis being T-0 to T-X).
But not sure I agree with that expectation for pace
Quite unexpectedly (to me anyway), the most steady comp for your sample - and perhaps of all the data point comps we have - has been Aquaman 2, which hasn't budged out of a $10.1-$10.6M range since you've been including it. While I don't love it for market/audience/PSM purposes, if Dune II continues to match that pace through the finish, would be around 5100 ticket final (2.30x vs current 2.345x), which would only be a smidge below the 5239 your market had for Oppy
... and get us right back the ~$10M target for Thursday. Now I wouldn't be surprised if, given the subject matter, limited PLF availability, and lack of holiday, Dune isn't quite that walk-up friendly on the final day, and comes in a bit lower. [Though you reported weak walk-ups for T-0 on Aquaman 2]. But still would ballpark an expected finish for your sample in the ~5K range give or take
Aquaman 2 is a bad comp. It did not have all PLF - it had to split normal PLF with Wonka and even gave Screen X to Migration.
So, the average ticket price is just not gonna compare, even if overall ticket sales do.
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On 2/22/2024 at 2:23 AM, elhassane31 said:
The movie has been screened at UCLA for a bunch of students Wednesday.
So, that's the most "damning with faint praise" review I've seen in awhile...
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I will say...this movie has made it to the Fortnite tween boy set.
My kid, who hasn't wanted to watch a 2024 movie yet, has said he'd like to see this in March. Not KFP4 - this one.
So, keep that in mind. Now, it's not all my kids, so this is just a tiny movie whisper, not a full on one...
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits
End of the free ticket promo happened at 7pm Monday, so Tuesday sales had to live without it...