TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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Just now, AniNate said:
I do think Ghostsbusters might've had more audience overlap than we thought, though I still think it'd be doing sub 45% drops with better reviews.
In my showing last night, there were a ton of little 8-12 year old boys...so that demo is turning out for this GB...
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6 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Eesh, don't think $200mil is happening anymore. That word-of-mouth really must've dinged it.
Nah, it just opened as a $35M family movie with $25M in older teen money. So, it's gonna go 4x+ that family money + the OW teen money (which didn't catch on post the weekend, like Minions did), or exactly where it should have ended up.
It wasn't really a "family opener" in the traditional sense, but more a hybrid, so a lower leg multiplier...
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So, we saw Ghostbusters:). It has the same problem as Eternals, but to a lesser degree...TOO MANY characters. Just too many. I mean, it had the advantage of having them all introduced before, but it just doesn't help enough, especially when they do continue to introduce new characters.
So, the movie struggles all movie juggling the cast and their purpose, giving them spotlight time, hitting nostalgia points, getting through plot exposition, etc. Like Eternals, the movie just feels way longer than it is b/c of trying to fit in too many folks.
That said, it was still an enjoyable movie. My 2 youngest boys (tween and teen) loved it, while my older teen girl was not thrilled. Spouse and I were happy, but not amazed.
For the grades, spouse and I gave it a B-. He also said it was 2 written drafts and some character pruning from being a home run.
Boys gave it an A-.
Teen girl wouldn't grade, but was happy she saw a movie.
The best times of the movie were with Bill Murray on screen - damn, he still has it. The worst parts were where the 2 teen girls shared a scene b/c my own teen girl said that "looking lifeless" was not supposed to be what both were doing, and they couldn't decide what they wanted their screen emoting to be, so you have this deadness on screen.
Also, going to the (audience asks, why would she do that - answer "b/c she's a teen and the movie plot needs it") trope over and over was a bit...much...
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3 hours ago, JimmyB said:
Im going to assume its because people think it'll be frontloaded and Ghostbusters doesn't gross much internationally
With the TMobile deal, the weekend won't be as front-loaded as might be expected...
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So, this will be my 1st 2024 theatrical movie. Kid wanted to go with his movie subscription, so I've got 5 tickets for Friday night. Thank you Atom for making 2 of those $5:).
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After this week, the next 2 weeks of weekdays will be good days for box office.
Then, we'll hit the doldrums of April til we start getting colleges out in May.
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So, this month's movies have added more deals on Fandango - Ghostbusters one won't matter (b/c TMobile's is WAY better) but Godzilla's might...
Ghostbusters - $5 off 1 ticket
Godzilla - Buy 2, Get 1 Free - up to $15 off (would have way more effect as a BOGO, but this IS a national, publicized deal)
Godzilla will NOT have a TMobile deal.
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
Coming to Universal in 2027: The Amazon Where Madame Web's Mother Was Researching Spiders Before Dying.
Speed rollercoaster ala Mummy (or even a water coaster) with spider effects, water effects, and general horror. This would get so many riders:)!
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I finally watched Echo. It was kinda horrible. It's one step up from Secret Invasion, but that's about it.
Turning the character into a Walmart version of Black Panther vs showing her learning from Kingpin in her comic book physical mimcry style was such a mistake from the concept get go. She could be so impressive with that mimicry (since once learned, she never loses the ability), and it was kinda just waved away as not important. And it didn't help that to show the conversion of the power set away from mimicry to ancestor power, you got to see folks that I thought would have been better cast as Echo and who were better actors.
The show had pretty much zero stakes, went nowhere, had little super powered action, concluded in a non-satisfying way, and existed solely, it seems, to re-establish that Kingpin is alive and back in charge.
D+ for another D+ show is my grade. They have to start doing better.
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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Normally that offer come just before release. Why so much earlier this time?
It is just before release (it's always Tuesday before) - it's actually announced later than usual. Usually, most films announce 2 weeks prior to the deal, not 5 days before, so this one might have been a little last minutes after the 2 big opens...
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So, the Ghostbusters folks are reading this thread...and might be worried about being forgotten.
3rd Atom/TMobile deal of the year - Ghostbusters - $5 tickets, available starting next Tuesday, 3/19. Expect a slight slowdown in presales from now til then, and then a bigger "walk up" and last minute buyer through the weekend...
2024 Atom/TMobile $5 ticket deals
Beekeeper
Marley
Ghostbusters
(Edit to Add - and 6 free months of Apple TV again...so I'll be a subscriber for the 3rd time...maybe I'll watch more this time - I did the 2nd time vs the 1st time)...
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7 hours ago, eddyxx said:
I wouldn't care about the x-men 97 guy getting fired if his social media wasn't erased and both parties are refusing to comment. It makes it seem like it's something sinister he did or criminal. I'm thinking he abused some one.
I agree - I'm thinking abuse and/or age is an issue right now. That's about the only thing that would wipe social media.
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57 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:
Variety said 48% of kfp4 audience is 18-24
2000s kids and Tik tok crowd carrying the movie
Dang gentleminions strikes again...
So, it was a $35M OW family movie...and then college kids showed up...
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And I guess we now know - the free tickets really got the ball rolling for KFP2. SoF is not the only movie who made early free tickets pay off into big weekend and total DOM...
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59 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:
Diversity demos for kung fu panda 4
hispsnics/latinos 44%
White 22%
black 11%
Asian 18%
I did not know po was that popular with the Latinos, that’s awesome hahah. Bodes well for Latin America international numbers
Yeah, I figured Asian would overindex...and it did. But dang on the Latino number. Normally it would be a percent or two above Caucasian for a family movie that draws evenly by US demos. But this time, it's enormous.
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Panda 19.25
This is the 1st shocking number I've seen this year.
We're gonna get Panda 5, 6, and 7 if this doesn't collapse...
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7 hours ago, leoh said:
so you’re missing this forum for some weeks I guess lol, some people even called out @Shawn Robbins cuz his first projection was basically like “Calm down, Dune won’t be making a 100M OW”, and he turned out to be right. However, some weeks ago some people were overhyped after some news saying that “rival studios” were seeing Dune making 1 billion. Shawn was the first one (or at least one of them) to bring down to earth those crazy expectations. Some people (not only on this forum) got upset because he was not even considering 100M as a possibility.
Who? I won’t be exposing anyone. Tracking is a really hard thing to do, people who this for love deserve every praise. Sometimes you get it right some times you don’t. And this is ok.
Shawn's 1st opening predictions were $50-$75M and $125-$195M DOM - and yes, I told him they were too low...a lot...those 1st few weeks when they weren't changing...and they were too low.
My 1st opening predictions (which folks on this board know I don't tend to abandon just b/c of presales) of $102/$325M were too high (at least for OW)...we should have met in the middle:)...and he almost did at the end:).
So, Leoh, please continue...over and over and over again...and keep beating the dead horse. You've contributed so much valuable feedback to these boards so far.
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So, if any of those numbers hold, Jack Black is gonna be able to name his price for Panda 5...
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13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
@keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.
For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4 are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI.
If they end up true, it could be
3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58And now we know where every trackers high numbers are coming from...
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20 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:
Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.
“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million.
Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html
$3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs
- between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and
- between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.
That's a lot of Skadoosh.
I feel like there's some hopecasting going on that family buying and attendance trends of early 2023 will repeat in early 2024 (aka the Mario spring break trend). I mean, we have nothing to say they won't, b/c we have had so few animated movies. Then again, we've had nothing to say they will.
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2 hours ago, TMP said:
This thing's hitting $300m. It's broken into the zeitgeist like a $300m performer does
I've stuck to $325M DOM even during OW. Nothing I've seen so far has dissuaded me from that number.
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I'm just gonna put out there...
There were a lot of free tickets bought in normally "quiet" times for kid animated (like presale bumps don't take much to move "expectations" to higher tiers when you're 7 days out from a kid movie). While their full price box office will be in opening weekend, they aren't really indicative of who will pay full price to show up OW, so they are gonna throw off all sorts of multipliers (T-X to T-O, T-O to walk ups, Thursday to weekend multiplier, etc).
These tickets aren't like TMobile or Angel Studios tickets, where folks still have them floating around all week as options. They are over and done, more like the Atom deals that horror movies (and Ordinary Angels a few weeks ago) have given for free, but at a higher quantity. This is probably the biggest movie to have done totally free in awhile.
So, keep an open mind when you think Thursday and then weekend. This could really go anywhere b/c I don't think the early sales are sales in the truest sense, so this could still go from being Sound of Freedom (where free got the ball rolling) to Ordinary Angels (where it didn't)...
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8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581
Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200
Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).
Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down.
End of the free ticket promo happened at 7pm Monday, so Tuesday sales had to live without it...
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2nd non-Plf went all in on Panda
NEW
KFP4 - 3.5 screens - 19 showings (loses a few late nights - it's 4 screens by day)
Cabrini - 1 screen
Imaginary - 1 screen
4 foreign films split - 1.5 screens
Returning
Dune - 3 screens (more late shows than early)
Bob Marley - 1 screen
The Chosen - .5 screen
Madame Web - 1 showing
Gone
Demon Slayer, Wonka (finally gone), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, some foreign films
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Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits
Gonna give March movies a chance for some nice late legs...the next 2 weeks should be very nice already for the March movie legs...and then the blockbusters probably hang around til May (looking at Dune, and less KFP4)...