Barnack

I would imagine Pixar is in constant soul searching, they have only one giant original hit in the 2010s with Inside out, Brave did well enough, but it was a trouble production with mixed result. Compare that with the Monster Inc, Nemo, Incredible, Cars, Ratatouille, Wall-e, Up run level of ridiculous success. (4 of those that had sequels). If Coco do so-so, Inside out could be the only giant original Pixar hit of the 2010 decade all together.

Big star assemble has a long list of example of that, but it could simply be that even thought the batting average is better we don't have that impression because pile of crap without a big cast goes unnoticed.

Is domestic in that sentence France ? I think you have the situation in reverse, for them the US market is oversea. The franchise has a someone pre-existing fan base in Europe (it did sell millions of copy) and has one of the biggest names in world cinema with Besson.

Maybe not for an STX release (or if you are Disney), but I would imagine that you are better to have a reputation to play fair, yes fight for the best release date when it is the time for it, but not step over an other studio outside of fair play, so they will to the same for your in the future (but it this case, eurocorp and stx, yes I imagine just think about your movie)

Europa is not releasing in that many market (only france ?), and STX only domestic, that movie has 25 different distributor according to imdb, I<m not sure it is and easy ship to turn around if you want a world release pretty much around the same date and it could go both ways, many small player with a low clout not easy for them to get out of an previous engagement.

Not necessarily, they would loose any chance to ever get an Imax release again, every job I ever worked for contract were often bent when one party knew well the other player would not enforce it, it is how big company get a good advantage over small contractor that have mostly just them as a client for example.

A contract is often more a clear reminder of the exact term (outside when people are really willing to destroy relationship and ready to spend a fortune enforce them), in the business world contract are not respected all the time. Now Imax listening to Nolan one of their biggest promoter make sense, a player like STX not able to walk out of is release make sense they are just distributing domestic and cannot release that movie domestic week after the rest of the world nor necessarily control the other distributor WW, a lot of this make sense for those player. WB making Dunkirk a summer release is maybe the one a bit strange.

Outside that is pretty standard (it is probably more with full off uncredited people giving input outside those 4), try to come with a good story for a top gun 2 (one that would pass the studio test) movie, it is really a big big challenge, that if they pull off in a good movie, that would earn those paycheck.

Same legs has Hidden Figure, first weekend was 13.3% of Blind Side, 13.5% for Hidden Figures. I would think it was a lot for the same reason in both case. Both A+ cinemascore hugely Crowd pleaser (tailored for pure crowd pleasing), both got Oscar attention, both can play strong in middle america not just coastal, both got some of that church crowd for strong Sundays but could still play among non religious.

I did just try with the 165 movie that went wide (over 600) last year, and with every (well 5-6) test, movie over 3000 theater, between 1000 and 2500, over 4000, over 2000, etc.... I always come up with a positive correlation between RT and the opening WE box office (and a large one for total box office, RT would be possibly a good predictor of WOM), that said the R2 even thought clearly positive is really small in all those scenario opening weekend wise (a bit like the 2011 graph I pasted above). Animation that is really robust, Franchise (BvS and Suicide Squad really make a bump in the low range), there is a lot of noise out here. It is not easy, because the type of movie that it could help the most probably often never reach 600 theater without good reviews. Maybe if we remove animation and franchise it would give a better idea, but they are such a major part of the wide release output now. Maybe an other way would be among movie of the same franchise with many entry (MCU, x-men, etc...)

Oh I thought people were joking about that, but I think it can goes has high as 15-20% on a movie between a really rotten and a 90%+ score (and that is the operating margin of the best studio out there). For certain movie (really small one) it could be much more, but giant marketing affair will not need critics has a marketing tool much.

The theory is that RT became more important since is last 90% score, but anyway the main message is that you were pointing out that despite an good score Baby Driver is only marginal performing better, well no it look like it could be doing 100% better, if not more. Now like I said, it is not the only factor and we will not be able to isolate RT from one guy, one movie, but Daby Driver doubling the rest of Wright filmography certainly does not against the idea that RT has a more and more significant impact on a movie box office.

That sound a bit surprising to me. Like you said I would have suspecting for the small movie for studio to push more on the marketing of "good movie" creating a correlation (even without causation), and for big budget movie to have better score in general (and once again creating some correlation). Trying to google it, there is lot of noise by terrible research (that use all movies all together and not by release size or they are only looking at the successful movie by looking just at those who achieved a high number like 20 million or top 50 of the year's type of huge mistake in creating the sample) http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses?ref=hp Metascore Range # of Films Avg. Opening Weekend Avg. 2nd Weekend Decline Avg. Multiplier Avg. Total Gross Films scoring 0–19 22 $13,961,514 ▼ 52.5% 2.6 $35,081,918 Films scoring 20–39 301 $16,503,055 ▼ 50.2% 2.8 $47,785,166 all with bad reviews: 323 $16,329,947 ▼ 50.4% 2.8 $46,919,929 Films scoring 40–50 294 $21,353,058 ▼ 49.5% 2.9 $62,658,866 Films scoring 51–60 255 $26,890,484 ▼ 46.2% 3.1 $81,265,377 all with mixed reviews: 549 $23,925,086 ▼ 48.0% 3.0 $71,301,234 Films scoring 61–70 163 $35,480,314 ▼ 44.2% 3.4 $112,446,672 Films scoring 71–80 87 $37,112,105 ▼ 42.1% 3.8 $137,787,032 Films scoring 81–90 29 $49,583,445 ▼ 38.8% 4.3 $197,836,138 Films scoring 91–100 7 $59,076,012 ▼ 37.7% 4.1 $238,356,646 all with positive reviews: 286 $37,984,253 ▼ 42.8% 3.6 $131,895,188 in 2007, when RT didn't had the reach than today, the 90-100% were making 2000$ more by screen and had a much better average box office by fresh movie than by rotten one: If you would take the last 3 year's 2000 or so movie that got a theatrical release and split them by 0-9, 10-19%, etc... RT score, and look at those category of movie performance, I think you would see a pattern (now correlation does not mean causation).

Well Edgar wright output was already critically acclaimed, so you are comparing from previous high score RT output too. Baby Driver: 97% World end: 89% Scott pilgrim: 81% Hot Fuzz: 91% Shaun: 92% The difference factor would be having even an higher score than usual and now RT being more important. One think is certain, it is not doing marginally better, it look like it will be doing 100+% better than is usual (we tend to forget how low is filmography was): Date Title (click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Rank 6/28/17 Baby Driver Sony $9,029,105 3,226 n/a 3,226 5 8/23/13 The World's End Focus $26,004,851 1,553 $8,811,790 1,551 2 8/13/10 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World Uni. $31,524,275 2,820 $10,609,795 2,818 1 4/20/07 Hot Fuzz Rog. $23,637,265 1,272 $5,848,464 825 3 9/24/04 Shaun of the Dead Rog. $13,542,874 675 $3,330,781 607 4 Is average first weekend is about 7m, is average dbo is about 27m, it look like it will be doing over 17m first weekeend and maybe a shot at over 55m dbo. It could be doubling those average of is filmography, almost certainly for the first weekend. Now a lot of that is probably having is most audience friendly high concept and I would imagine audience friendly trailer, with the lot of music and cars chase element, but it would not be surprising if it is overperforming over is tracking thanks to that pristine RT score.

Other reason could be wanting to have Bird involved (versus who care who is doing those Car sequels really) If they wanted him and I imagine they did with him writing/directing it, they needed to wait for him to be free (and for him to want to do a sequel and have good enough material to go forward). Incredibles sequels idea is hard to come with imo (without being a formulaic cliche) once they become SH, should we care about what they do more than others SH, what was special was the family arc, fish out of the water a little bit setting. Not sure anything you could come up with as a story, need to be with those people at all instead of is own new movie.

I really don't get those the-numbers figure of Strange or Suicide Squad if the high end collectible or 3D edition are marginal percentage of the sales.

Physical media maybe became collectible/high end edition heavy (specially the first week were all the pre-sales go through) https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16?url=search-alias%3Dmovies-tv&field-keywords=dr+strange+steelbook&sprefix=Dr+strange+steel%2Cmovies-tv%2C160&crid=SRM0011WQB8B Looking at amazon, price goes from $18.99, $35 to $69.95

He seem to be attached to way too many movie to be semi-retired (and those are movies you never say yes to if you do not need to do movie, for money or other reason, like the type of movie other retired actor like DDL or Jack Nicholson end up getting out to do) And he is probably not getting offered much of anything outside direct to dvd type of movie or other small project with some special type of financier (otherwise he would not do those). He work/get attached to a lot of projects : 12/31/2017 Death Wish $0 $0 $0 12/31/2017 First Kill $0 $0 $0 6/6/2017 Once Upon a Time in Venice Steve $0 $214,425 $214,425 12/31/2016 Untitled Bruce Willis Action Comedy $0 $0 $0 12/31/2016 Untitled Woody Allen Project $0 $0 $0 12/31/2016 Magic City $0 $0 $0 12/31/2016 Wake $0 $0 $0 7/1/2016 Marauders $0 $920,156 $920,156 4/22/2016 Precious Cargo Eddie $0 $575,822 $575,822 12/18/2015 Extraction Leonard $16,775 $959,051 $975,826 10/23/2015 Rock the Kasbah Bombay Brian $3,020,665 $336,605 $3,357,270 1/16/2015 Vice Julian $0 $0 $0 8/22/2014 The Prince Omar $0 $0 $0 Almost none of is movie achieved to make over 1 million world expect not much more for First Kill and Death Wish ( I needed to check for most of those with 0 if they were real existing movie, seem to be). Some even had considerable budget like The Prince (18 million): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prince_(2014_film) He got a really good last chance with a broadway project and Woody Allen movie, but he was apparently fired by him (replaced by Steve Carell in Café Society) and it seem that was pretty much the end of is serious theatrical movie days: http://www.cinemablend.com/new/It-Sounds-Like-Bruce-Willis-Was-Fired-By-Woody-Allen-79807.html

It is not always totally clear, because many movie restart the narrative but insert in some background element way to make it look like a sequel because Reboot/Remake got a bad name (say the Ghostbuster a very clear reboot/remake, but you can read the Sony e-mail with people talking about it has a reboot but to name it something else in the press, to not have the R word mentionned), a bit like for those Part1/2 getting removed from movie title. Jurassic World is one of those really muddy mix between a sequel and a remake (remove the previous movies, how much do you need to change this movie for people to be able to follow the plot?), it does not continue the narrative of JW3 really, but still use a bit of the very first movie narrative in it.

It is me not having seen JW3 talking but is it really clear that it is a sequel of JW 3 ?, it felt like even Jurassic 2 never happened in that universe. And 2 Kids stuck a dinosaur park that goes bad that need to be saved by a not direct family member and some dinosaur specialist guy. That is really not far from a remake. Putting Luke for 5 seconds does not make him being in the movie, the movie are about the new characters imo the old one are close to irrelevant in Force Awaken, you could easily remove them. But you are right than even thought the story is very close to the OT, it is in a mirror way. Still felt a lot like a reboot to me, that does not goes much on what happened to the empire vs rebel and restart with a new but very similar dynamic.

To be fair to myself a copy pasted someone else estimate (message just above mine) without any validation if it was a pessimistic oversea total (he used 185 for Os-china versus my 245 million) that made it more China heavy.

Even more so for Eddy Murphy he peaked close to biggest movie star in the world and many of is films were in the top 3 of the year at the BO, he was a really big star in Japan for example (and a spokesman for Toyota over there). Bevery Hills was the biggest R-rated movie until the Matrix Reloaded, the biggest movie in the world in 1984 above Ghosbuster. International awareness in 2014: Ferrell, Will Australia 0.914622179 Ferrell, Will Brazil 0.765407555 Ferrell, Will France 0.450648056 Ferrell, Will Germany 0.711576846 Ferrell, Will Italy 0.565340909 Ferrell, Will Japan 0.179132041 Ferrell, Will Korea Ferrell, Will Mexico 0.800796813 Ferrell, Will Russia Ferrell, Will Spain 0.583 Ferrell, Will UK 0.922155689 Ferrell, Will Int'l Average 0.654742232 Sandler, Adam Australia 0.965174129 Sandler, Adam Brazil 0.986055777 Sandler, Adam France 0.583250249 Sandler, Adam Germany 0.943227092 Sandler, Adam Italy 0.888111888 Sandler, Adam Japan 0.198207171 Sandler, Adam Korea 0.650690502 Sandler, Adam Mexico 0.972055888 Sandler, Adam Russia 0.934011284 Sandler, Adam Spain 0.937062937 Sandler, Adam UK 0.94217348 Sandler, Adam Int'l Average 0.818183673 Murphy, Eddie Australia 0.979062812 Murphy, Eddie Brazil 0.993 Murphy, Eddie France 0.980059821 Murphy, Eddie Germany 0.983050847 Murphy, Eddie Italy 0.984031936 Murphy, Eddie Japan !! 0.927 !! Murphy, Eddie Korea Murphy, Eddie Mexico 0.984047856 Murphy, Eddie Russia Murphy, Eddie Spain 0.983084577 Murphy, Eddie UK 0.982 Murphy, Eddie Int'l Average 0.977259761 Carrey, Jim Australia 0.957042957 Carrey, Jim Brazil 0.991 Carrey, Jim France 0.959 Carrey, Jim Germany 0.923230309 Carrey, Jim Italy 0.97 Carrey, Jim Japan 0.61 Carrey, Jim Korea 0.920837533 Carrey, Jim Mexico 0.987051793 Carrey, Jim Russia 0.97127383 Carrey, Jim Spain 0.97005988 Carrey, Jim UK 0.971028971 Carrey, Jim Int'l Average 0.930047752

Not sure about that without even going how much on a different planet Murphy and Carrey peak were those 3 didn't had shorter career. And Sandler run was ridiculous and was at least has long has Ferell current one. Will take your word for Murphy I was too young (and not american) at the time, but is peak was such giant and overall career so long even if we remove the hole in the middle. http://www.ultimatemovierankings.com/will-ferrell-movies/ http://www.ultimatemovierankings.com/adam-sandler-movies/ http://www.ultimatemovierankings.com/eddie-murphy-movies http://www.ultimatemovierankings.com/jim-carrey-movies/ Number of 100 million movie adjusted, lenght of their run: Ferrel: 11 (10 without Lego movie), first in 2003 last in 2015, coming close to 15 year's Sandler: 16 (14 without hotel Transylvanian), first 1998 last in 2013, 15 year's long and he was a star after Happy Gilmore home video/tv success released in 1996, so arguably 17 year's. Carrey: 16, first in 1994 last in 2009, 15 year's Murphy: 25 !! (20 without voice roles), first in 1982 last in 2007, 25 year's

Not so sure about that. Using the same: 22.5m from china (25%) 74 OS (40%) 39 Domestic (55%) 135.5 M goes to Universal for The Mummy 16.4m from china (25%) 81.87 OS (40%) 55 Domestic (55%) 153.27 M for Edge of Tomorrow (that apparently had a solid home video performance, according to Blunt) 0m from china (25%) 89.92 OS (40%) 84.7 Domestic (55%) 174.62 M for Fury Road (and it got a video game made + a imagine a solid home video performance with how acclaimed it was) say The Mummy will made 50% of it's revenue from theatrical (not that pessimistic from were the box office come from) and 45% for the other 2 (not optimistic at all considering the acclaim and the video game for Fury Road and were the movies were popular) Revenue Mummy: 271 m Edge: 340.6m Fury Road: 388m That is a good difference, specially if Mummy is really the most expensive of them all, but even using the 125 million figure if would not be better than the others 2 (even if FR was 230m like some rumors pointed at).

In the 90s, I am saying that he was still at least at Ferrell top level to until 2009/2010 or so (after 2005 Carrey was far from 1997 Carrey, but still at least at Ferrel prime level).