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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. They still tend to do much better than the average comedy when they underperform. Original Fist Fight: Domestic: $32,187,017 78.5% + Foreign: $8,800,000 21.5% = Worldwide: $40,987,017 Why him ? Domestic: $60,323,786 51.1% + Foreign: $57,710,487 48.9% = Worldwide: $118,034,273 The Boss Domestic: $63,285,885 80.3% + Foreign: $15,558,697 19.7% = Worldwide: $78,844,582 Rought Night Domestic: $18,671,063 70.9% + Foreign: $7,671,830 29.1% = Worldwide: $26,342,893 Perceived has underperforming sequel were still all nice success: Neighbors 2: Domestic: $55,455,765 51.3% + Foreign: $52,551,344 48.7% = Worldwide: $108,007,109 Ted 2: Domestic: $81,476,385 37.6% + Foreign: $135,215,348 62.4% = Worldwide: $216,691,733 Paul mart 2: Domestic: $71,038,190 66.0% + Foreign: $36,550,035 34.0% = Worldwide: $107,588,225 Horrible boss 2: Domestic: $54,445,357 50.6% + Foreign: $53,225,000 49.4% = Worldwide: $107,670,357 Anchorman 2: Domestic: $127,352,707 73.3% + Foreign: $46,296,308 26.7% = Worldwide: $173,649,015 Bumb and dumber to Domestic: $86,208,010 50.8% + Foreign: $83,629,000 49.2% = Worldwide: $169,837,010 With some just flat out success in the bunch like 22 jump street, Bidgets jones The comedy sequel track record is still impressive overall: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comedysequel.htm&sort=date&order=DESC&p=.htm Except for Ban santa 2, zoolander 2 and Hot tub time machine 2, it is mostly a long list of nice success, even Grown Up 2, a really nice batting record, I suspect Daddy Home 2 will beat (if not destroy) almost all live action non sequel pure comedy of this year.
  2. We're the millers was a well liked movie (A- Cinemascore, 72% audience RT score, 7/10 IMDB), that did an incredible run because of incredible legs (5.6 multiplier that is not far from Hidden Figures performance). I really doubt you can do that with a bad movie, a movie like the House seem like a movie that you would loose most of the 40/50 million on the domestic release if you would be to give it a proper comedy marketing, like what happened to WB when they spend a fortune on Fist Fight in february. They spent over 40 million on a domestic release that gave them around 16.5 million in rental.
  3. Sandler is an other one that had a really long staying power (without evolving much), Billy Madison/Happy Gilmore was in 95/96, Grown Ups was a giant success in 2013. Eddy Murphy was an other one with a very long career, he was one of the biggest box office draw in the world for a long time (if he was not number one in that peak), from the early 80 to around 2000 Ferrell became a star with SNL + Old School (2003), around the early 2000's, about 15 year's yes. Jim carey was at least at Ferrel level from 1994 to around 2009 or so, also 15 year's for him, and Dumb and Dumber to still made 169 million at the BO 20 year's after the first one.
  4. The only way to "tarnish" the original with a remake is by doing a considerably better movie, if you do a worst one the original end up looking even better. I cannot think of one case of a bad remake tarnishing an original, very good remake yes. Remake are not really dangerous, prequel/sequel in the same cannon, adding explanation element to the original movie, those can tarnish it. Has for is it a sequel or a reboot, the last one to listen about that would be the studio PR, they had a fear of the word reboot, them not using that word mean nothing (or plugging 2-3 element to make it in the same universe does not either), that just show how easy it is to manipulate people.
  5. I'm pretty sure that the 197.4m euro is the gross budget yes. In US dollar the average euro the US was since january 2016: https://www.oanda.com/currency/average 2016 1.10675 1.10710 *2017 1.06635 1.06671 Making the budget in US around 214 to 219 ishhh depending of when the money was spent, I'm not sure if we can really use today exchange rate to convert past expense, better use what it was for most of the spending. Now how much will it get in tax credit, animation movie tax credit has a 30% rate but they never get all expense available for it (it will not be 60 million) or even have a maximum cap in place, when it was planned to be a 180m US production it was apparently eligible to get 30 million in Euro reduction under that new law they made just for that movie: http://www.screendaily.com/news/luc-bessons-valerian-begins-paris-shoot/5098553.article But local non-French language productions with a strong special-effects element have now been given the same status as feature-length animation films, so these too can qualify for the 30% credit - a modification rushed through at the end of 2015 to meet Besson’s requirements. As a result, Valerian is eligible as a French film and could benefit from up to $34m (€30m) in savings while creating around 1,000 jobs. Say it got around that 30 million Euro in saving (considering it did cost way above 180m that would be logical) and say that under the french system you get money not a tax credit you need to sell or that is company can use all of it, that will make it a 167.4m Euro net budget, a 178 to 185 isshh million US net movie. If they need to sell those tax credit, then they would be less efficient but they should still get 85-90 cent on the dollar. For example Besson last movie, Lucy had 45.445m Euro gross budget according to the same document year's ago, that is about 60 million US at the time. http://www.cnc.fr/web/fr/publications?p_p_auth=9PDUy05y&p_p_id=20&p_p_lifecycle=1&p_p_state=exclusive&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-1&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_20_struts_action=%2Fdocument_library%2Fget_file&_20_folderId=8411273&_20_name=DLFE-22907.pdf The net production budget throw around by the trade was 40m US (not saying they were right in their estimate, they were probably not, but that would show that the devis number in the CNC is the gross budget and that the net after incentive could be significantly lower) Edit: After a quick read of the tax credit rules in France: Le plafond de crédit d’impôt a en outre été augmenté, passant de 4 M€ à 30 M€. It is 30m maximum for Valerian, so it would not be more than that because the movie did cost more than expected.
  6. That settle that one. Guillermo del Toro on Pacific Rim then ? That had a rumored 190m net budget.
  7. That is the rumored net budget I think, has a Georgia production it got a nice tax break, Abu Dhabi has a really good one also.
  8. If you are talking gross it ended up being 197.47m Euro according to this (Centre national du cinéma Français): http://www.profession-spectacle.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/La-production-cinématographique-en-2016.pdf That is 225.8 million US with today exchange rate, but ER fluctuate quite a bit recently, could have been a bit lower with 2016 exchange rate say 214 to 219. Net could be considerably lower after a France state tax rebate, could be 30 million Euro lower for a 181 to 184 million or so net cost.
  9. Maybe it was your theater sound system (or a noisy crowd ?), at my showing it was almost systematic to hear a ring when the head phone were not in. I don't know what to think of the movie yet, will need a rewatch but I didn't had has much fun I expected, below Hot Fuzz, had less energy I thought it would, some action scene were just great with a high level of craft but the movie achieved to feel long and the script always have hard time to install why he would continue to drive instead of just leave, didn't felt natural. Maybe too many set piece, multiple heist crew + the gun deal going bad (maybe that one could have been condensed with something else) and maybe less drama between the supporting cast that do not pay off that much and use the time to develop more the waitress characther.
  10. Ghostbuster second trailer is the second most disliked movie trailer after Ghosbuster, no other movie come close i think. Ghostbuster first trailer: 1.05 million dislike Ghosbuster second trailer: 95k dislike Maybe I<m not looking at the good trailers on youtube but the 2 trailers with the most view counts seem to have together less than 5000 down votes and really not in same category. Maybe trailers with just so much more views are probably all above Jumanji Force awaken has 20k dislike BvS has 17k dislike
  11. Who are those people that buy ticket online in advance for something like the House.
  12. On a box office message board we would need new expression, what people usually mean by original movie is non established IP in my market. From a BO point of view, original or not is not important, it is established brand or not, same from an audience point of view.
  13. The number of screen pretty much stagnated since 2009/2010 Screens: 2016 40,174 2015 40,006 2014 39,956 2013 40,024 2012 39,662 2011 39,580 2010 39,520 2009: 39,233 More importantly, the numbers of theater went down a bit after the financial crisis and had a mini peak in 2009 https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/ in 2009: 5942 theater 2010: 5773 theater 2011: 5697 theater 2012: 5692 theater 2013: 5719 theater ... And just went back to an close to 2009/2010 level (depending of were it was down from 2009 when Twilight was released) 2016: 5821 For a reference in 1999 there had 7477 theater or drive in, it is a type of record that could have been never been beating for a very long time with our tendency to have less but bigger theater.
  14. When you read the Sony e-mails of them talking about green-lighting this movie, it is in exchange of Wright doing a couple of movie for them.
  15. I think he could if he ever do a hired studio movie project (ant-man would have made 100m+)
  16. Maybe some bad RT score are still better than none.
  17. I don't think you can be casual and a youtuber at the same time (or are we this far at this point ?).
  18. That was a good rule when big movie were getting about 58% domestic, 40% intl and were domestic heavy. Now because of China, using it would be sometime just way too misleading, a movie like Warcraft didn't get 40% of the box office for an example. The rules of thumb I would use is (for major movie release, smaller movie get much worst deal) .53 x dom + .4 x (intl-china) + .25 x (china)
  19. I don't know but depending of the month in 2013 60 million US gave you between 520 to 600m South Africa Rand. in 2016 60 million US gave you between 830 to 970m South Africa Rand. Combined with a apparently: he Foreign Film and Television Production and Post-Production Incentive offers: • Shooting on location in South Africa, the incentive is 20% of the Qualifying South African Production Expenditure (QSAPE) - there is no cap for this incentive Depending on how much was made in South Africa vs New York (that also has a nice tax credit incentive) a 60 million US in 2016 movie shot there, could be the equivalent of an 80m in 2013. Exchange rate really does hurt global box office, but in the last year we do start to see some movie budget really benefiting from it, an extreme example being Inferno rumored at 75m net. That and the aggressiveness of jurisdiction of getting production. That factor plus Tom Rothman and charge being usually aggressive on cost and the movie trailer not looking to have top end SFX and production overall (it does seem really on the cheap side versus say Westworld on HBO), it is probably on the low/positive estimate side, but not necessarily that out of the possible range.
  20. In the past most did yes when legs were really different, some small weekend movie did better too like Blade that was a bit above 4.0x, Batman Begins in 2006 did over 4 has well, superman return was not far. Post Avengers it must be the best thought.
  21. From what I understand of a BOT 10:1 odds bet, it mean: If I loose the bet I give to the website 10 time what you would have giving to the website if I would have won.
  22. Overall Besson said Lucy type of performance would be an ok one (so I would guess a small but clear positive return for everyone involved). From the studio point of view it was so much pre-sold, that a bit like for a Power Rangers the concept of break even would be a strange one.
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