Brainbug
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Posts posted by Brainbug
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This is not a Spoiler for the movie, since its in the trailers: GodzillaxKong will take place partly in Brazil. Could that boost its numbers here or is that not really a factor?
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Just now, Legion Again said:
I would not like to see the number begin with a 7
Well then the question is, do you mean with that
a) that you dont like the Monsterverse movies and would like to see the movie open on the low end of expectations in which case why are you so mean?
b) you would like to see an 8, in which case im fully on board!
c) you generally dislike the number 7.
Im eagerly anticipating your answer.
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12 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:
Going with $62m for GxK. Was definitely too cautious with it a few weeks back. The $50m high end then looks like the low, low end now.
We all know you, too, would like to see the number begin with a 7 more, Shawn.
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Oh man im so happy. King of the Monsters' underperformance nearly killed my passion for following box office back then so to see the new movie doing this well in presales feels especially good.
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5 hours ago, Mulder said:
Saw someone on twitter say it got pushed back to Thursday, which if true is rough and not good. Already not a great sign that none of the trades or big press put out reactions last night review wise. Like Brainbug said though, what happens really depends on how the GA feel when they see it.
I feel like one reason for King of the Monsters underperformance (and its short legs) was that while it had way more fight scenes than G14, they were often interrupted by the (frankly boring) family storyline which can be frustrating.
GvK on the other hand had multiple fight scenes where you were just watching the Kaiju duke it out for a few minutes. And i think that went over way better with the GA and especually the part of it that just wants mindless monster action. So if GxK is "more of the same", i do expect it to get similarly good WoM to GvK even if the reviews are poor (which i kind of expect now with the emargo dropping later).
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For me, 8M Previews would already be fantastic considering many here felt the movie would open more in the 50M range for the last few months.
10M Previews would just be nutty. At that point, i would probably be insufferable on the forums (more than already mind you)
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11 minutes ago, M37 said:
::Checks in on weekend sales numbers::
Hey, um guys (& gals!)...
All indications are for a very strong upward trajectory from here on out. Growth rates for both MTC1 and Sacto are tracing among the highest data points in their respective data sets, most notably and aptly Transformers ROTB. Keeping up that pace, as Keyser and Porthos both indicated, puts $8M in previews solidly in play, and wouldn't take too much more of push to flirt with $9M: The one catch is that late dropping - and potentially poor - reviews may derail momentum, plus whatever impact the NCAA Sweet 16 games have in keeping some of the male skewing demo home; those factors do soften the floor, giving a Thursday range of like $7-$9M
Based solely on growth rates, would put final targets at approximately (as this is Q&D analysis)
MTC1 = 150-160K
Sacto = ~4500
See above for why those targets may not verify, but that's where currently trajectory predicts
Florida = not enough data to estimate, but will be very interested in seeing the Miami walk-ups, given how this market/state perform on Jurassic films
The weekend pattern and corresponding IM is tricky with the holiday, but currently Friday sales in MTC1 is 70% higher than Trans ROTB at T-3, which would comp to $28-$29M, and while I think the fan nature of Godzilla and holiday effect probably means that doesn't quite pan out, mid-$20M range seems like a good target, with a BPWF like 2x Thursday almost certainly the floor. Saturday likely drops from TFri (See F8ate of Furious), to something around ~2.5x Thur [See Trans ROTB, JWD, and Godzilla KOTM], and rolling it all up gives an approximate 8x+ IM, for a full weekend of expectation of $60-$75M, most likely in the Black Adam/Fast X range of high $60M
The amount of citys i would destroy for a 75M OW ...
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3 hours ago, BoxOfficeZ said:
The human characters are somehow a bit worse than the last movie (to be fair to the cast the script is just bad) but feels like they aren't as prominent at least. Kong is the anchor of the movie and the star of the show. Godzilla is more like a sidekick and isn't as featured as the trailer suggests. Great visuals and fights once it finally gets going. Forgettable soundtrack besides one moment.
I think the last movie was probably better executed, but GxK is still entertaining for any Titan fans.
This sounds exactly like i though it was going to be. Similar in tone and with the same strengths and flaws of GvK.
Meaning as long as general audiences dont find this movie boring, it should get good WOM since the people come for the fighs.
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Interesting. Though for me, ScarJo ist just ... a bit of a random pick? Though i will certainly not complain, like at all.
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To the score discussion: I also believe that King of the Monsters score is vastly superior to all other MonsterVerse soundtracks. I like the music from G14, but theres no real banger track on it imo and Kong Skull Islands music feels like Hollywood blockbuster factory themes.
GvK though for me is the low point. Its way too bombastic all the times and its just - kind of tedious. I love Junkies score for Mad Max Fury Road, but it seems like with the MonsterVerse films he just doesnt try very hard which i think is unfortunate.
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5 hours ago, John Marston said:
nah. GvK may beat Skull Island but it ain’t touching Godzilla 2014’s 93M opening
Agreed. I think low 60s for the OW looks possible right now, but for 93M+, it would need a hell of a final presales push and also extremely good walk-ups. I dont see that happening to this degree.
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18 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
so long as there’s people like you @Brainbug that will see the latest dino/lizard film over ten times in theaters, we’ll be ok. We salute you.Ive already planned 5 viewings for GxK (i hope it will be more), but what annoys me greatly is that i wont have a chance to see it on OW because of other appointments. Earliest i will be able to see it is on April 2nd ☹️
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16 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:
Very, very few horror films are actually scary once you're past a certain age. The last scary one I actually remember was The Lighthouse. Eli Roth's Thanksgiving had some imaginative gross out work but was about as scary as a He-Man episode.
I mean, the feeling of fear in the context of a horror film is probably one of the most subjective feelings one can have in moviegoing, in line with comedies where some people find a film like The Hangover for example extremely funny, while others think its boring and unfunny.
With horror films, ive made the experience that watching them with a group of people is really enlightining in terms of finding out what people find actually scary. It Follows was a case where i think its tense and effective and has 2 or 3 good jump scares, but i didnt really find it scary - two people i watched it with absolutely lost their minds watching it and screamed my ears off.
So imo its not necessarily an age thing, but the exposure to the genre (the more horror films you see, logically the less they probably scare you) and peoples personality where some are just easily scared, while others are unfaced.
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For me personally, im just glad that movies and movie theaters so far survived Covid and also are still surviving the streaming age despite all tge struggles and problems. Im glad for every film like Dune 2 because i dont know when the time will come that such movies wont get made anymore. Or when the viewing habitats changed so much that theaters really get closed everywhere. Im pretty sure that this (terrible) scenario will come someday, but i hope that its still a long, long way ahead of us.
But since i dont know when the death of movie theaters will happen, i just enjoy them in the present as long as i can.
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This weekend is but an appetizer for the movie event of the year coming out next weekend.
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1 hour ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:
Oh no, that doesn’t sound good.
8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:Let us not make this thread about RT reviews. For a monster movie, the RT is irrelevant. Jurassic World movies has always had backloaded pre-sales despite awful reviews. People are not going to a Zilla and kong movie expecting a classic for sure.
This, exactly. I woudnt say reviews have no effect whatsoever on Monster Mash movies, but audiences are extremely forgiving with these films when it comes to story and characters; the one thing though that makes or breaks those movies is the Fun Factor with the fights and whether or not the film delivers them in a satiesfying way.
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Continues to look absolutely amazing and i hope to all heavens that the script remains as good as in Season 1.
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37 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
Sorry Dune-heads, this is the coolest shot of the year in a blockbuster so far.
2024: The year Hollywood decided that great blockbusters can only be made with a desert setting.
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1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Now I know to save my money for the far better movie out the week after.
Ive been saving a lot of money for that as well.
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Oh wow this actually looks decent. Ive been heavily burned before with Alien: Covenant, but maybe im now on board with checking this out.
Might finally be the first good Alien movie since 1986.
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30 minutes ago, excel1 said:
What? ELVIS had the best trailer of 2022, Barbie's entire campaign is iconic level, DUNE 2's final trailer was unreal, etc.
Re: Furiosa, yeah I have no idea how this will do but I think this doesn't have near the mass appeal that some will like claim it has.
I mean ... has actually anyone here claimed that this will be a big hit? If yes, i havent noticed it.
Personally, id say Fury Roads numbers would be the ceiling for this.
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Way better trailer than the first one and i already liked that one.
George Miller is the gift that keeps on giving and i just hope he gets to be 120 years old.
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Villeneuves next film should be a live-action horror version of the Teletubbies.
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Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | March 29, 2024 | They're boyfriends now
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I think from here on out i will quote Yamazaki every time someone brings this false information (in regards specifically to Minus One) up:
According to Yamazaki, the visual effects team was not mistreated, having avoided working long hours on the film, and they installed a kitchen in the studio to make it "more comfortable and cozy". Moreover, he explained there are two categories of animation studios in Japan: "white" and "black", with "black" studios being the exploiters; the name of the film's visual effects studio, Shirogumi, literally means "white team" in Japanese