Carlangonz

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-8 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-10 The Marvels 376 25462 1.48% +31,93% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-10 Comp in % Comp in lc Little Mermaid 1092 17685 6.17% +40.36% 34.43% $8.13M Spiderverse 7558 19284 39.19% +13.43% 4.97% $2.19M As M37 pointed out in DOM thread; similarly in here it's probably due to Halloween and Dia de Muertos that pace has slowed down but still not good news that it went below Little Mermaid. Considering the holidays extend until Thursday and therefore many schools and even offices have decided to stay off-labor until Monday we either see a great jump or a bigger drop. This is still struggling to surpass Little Mermaid's first 30 hours of sales and even considering that one didn't even held midnights makes it worse. I think is safe to say that 4-Day opening is looking very much likely to go under Captain Marvel's opening day back in 2019 - $79M. Also looking to contest Blue Beetle as the lowest grossing CBM of the year and The Incredible Hulk as lowest grossing MCU ever. Although in the end this one may have the edge.

Hadn't included previews so it's up to $189M. $25M in previews so after all my comps on tracking were actually on point despite screen count.

Yeah but it also lost most of its shows as well

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-10 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth The Marvels 285 27155 1.05% +128% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-13 Comp in % Comp in lc Little Mermaid 778 15285 5.095 +73.27% 36.63% $8.64M Spiderverse 6663 19284 34.55% +36.65% 4.28% $1.88M Even I'm taking these comps with a grain of salt because those numbers are simply awful. I'm not using Barbie because of different presale schedule and Flash is also useless given they were Wed previews + Thu opening day. Transformers and Insidious could've been good comps because they represent best-case scenario for final days but they had the same release pattern as Flash. I know people say DOM sales are bad but at least they don't point towards Blue Beetle territory. And unlike Brazil where it saved some face beating Flash and Shazam 2, here it remains DC's biggest flop since 2003's Catwoman. Hopefully all this is a fluke and opens at least to $80M-$90M.

$164M were reported for Five Nights at Freddy's. Down from initial estimate from Universal, on line with forecast and best result for horror not only this year but since 2019's It: Chapter Two. Remains to be seen if it beats The Nun II. Radical decreases only 28% to $30M and along with excellent weekdays is now up to $92M. Killers of the Flower Moon also holds well (-43%) with $8.1M and collects $27.7M. Trolls 3 is kinda meh as it opens to $27.6M which is below what Paw Patrol did earlier this month. Same as Hypnotic with only $6.8M 6. The Exorcist: Believer - $6M/$165.3M 7. Equalizer: Final Chapter - $4.1M/$63.9M 8. The Eras Tour - $3.5M/$142.8M 9. Mira - $3.3M/$16.4M 10. Paw Patrol - $2.7M/$118.4M

30 hours update 125 sold / 13,979 available Across the Spiderverse (36 hours) - 4,876/19,284 Barbie (30 hours) - 2,627/22,440 The Little Mermaid (30 hours) - 449/11,662 If sub-$100M happens that would be a first for MCU since 2016's Dr Strange. Of course this excludes Shang-Chi which was released amidst pandemic but still below Eternals.

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY) - FIRST 12 HOURS (T-14 DAYS) 49 sold out of 12,962 available The Flash - 634/10,065 Across the Spiderverse - 2,203/17,820 Insidious: The Red Door (!) - 58/2,036 Well at least we know there's no fan rush. This may be one for the ages.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S - WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth from T-2 Wednesday (T-0.5 Hours) 36 7123 7411 96.11% +2.65% Thursday (T-15 Hours) 156 5512 30485 18.08% +32.34% Total 192 12635 37896 33.34% +22.03% Comps at the same point before release Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth fom T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc Spiderverse (T-16 hours) 175 13954 33397 41.78% +42,43% 90.55% $39.84M Barbie (T-16 hours) 258 23370 45283 51.61% +53,49% 54.07% $57.58M Fast X (T-15 Hours) 359 13778 63874 21.57% na 91.7% $68.04M Bad news coming from this side. Absolutely meh final hours despite getting final allocation before comps and pace took it now under Spiderverse. Hopefully walk-ins get stronger but because school is hard to tell. Rainy days will factor in as well if instead we get storms but I'd rather go conservative to $160M-$170M.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-6 HOURS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-2 Increase on seats Five Nights at Freddy's 6939 7411 93.63% +12.12% 276 T-0.5 HOURS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-6 Hrs Five Nights at Freddy's 7123 7411 96.11% +2.65% Overall better pace than what it had showed on previous week despite limitations and with a couple extra shows. Occupancy is nuts! Not even on par with most Marvel titles but Endgame/Infinity War levels right away. I'm not including comps but as suspected Guardians and Fast X point towards $25M and Flash to $23M. Cinemex and indie chains unlike Cinepolis did add extra shows thoughout the night so likely that'll help it to push previews number o/u $18M.

Final allocation for Freddy coming in and is huge! Pure Thursday count is 30k seats which is close to Spiderverse's 33k seats and combining it with Wednesday it expands to 37k. Main concern now is hurricane Otis which is hitting on the Pacific coast and shutting down one state. Center of the country including major markets such as Mexico City and Puebla will likely face rainy weather all rest of the week.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-2 DAYS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-5 Five Nights at Freddy's 6189 7135 86.74% +10.3% Comp at the same point before release. Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-5 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X (T-2) 6500 17153 37.89% +27.5% 95.22% $35.23M Comps at T-0 Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Comp in sales Comp in lc The Flash (T-0) 4812 11053 43.54% 128.62% $20.58 GOTG 3 (T-0) 6643 12606 52.69% 93.17% $22.36 Occupancy over 85% happened before I anticipated. Wondering if 90% be possible, if so that would be insane. Of course growth will now be minimal due to lack of screens and seats. Comps at this point are useless; once they all align will point to o/u $25M previews but its own limitations will bring it down by o/u $10M. Although overperformance on other chains might lift it up a few millions. This is the kind of fan-rush where demand spreads to wherever it can. Out of eight locations: two are over 80% full, one over 85%, three over 90% and one over 95% which is basically only handicap and single seats spread across auditoriums. WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THIRSDAY OPENING Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth from T-5 Wednesday (T-2) 34 6189 7135 86.74% +10.3 Thursday (T-3) 54 4165 11876 35.07% +12.87 Total 88 10354 19011 54.46% +11.32% Comps at the same point before release Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth fom T-6 Comp in % Comp in lc Spiderverse (T-3) 84 9797 19284 50.8% +12,71 105.69% $46.5M Barbie (T-3) 106 15226 23117 65.86% +21,26 68% $72.42M Pace has managed to improve and even though it lags behind Spiderverse is still great considering that one had slowed down at this point. Even if we remove Wed numbers, Thu growth isn't much bigger than combined average because matinees and sub shows still hurting growth so once again... is up to final allocation to see how much accelerates on its final hours. Overall I'm within the same range but higher end on OD leaning more into $40M and lower end on opening weekend at $170M. Biggest opening for a horror title since 2019's It: Chapter II.

1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - $43.6M/$138.5M (-53.52%) 2. Radical - $43.2M 3. The Exorcist: Believer - $15.5M/$151,7M (-57.65%) 4. Killers of the Flower Moon - $14.2M 5. The Equilizer 3 - $11.7M/54.7M (-62.5%) 6. Mira - $9.4M 7. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie - $8.4M/$113M (-46.15%) 8. Saw X - $4M/$91.2M (-61.9%) 9. The Nun II - $2M/$384.3M (-60%) 10. Guimoon: The Lightless Door - $1.7M Spectacular drop for The Eras Tour considering its nature. It is now the highest grossing concert event ever. It'll keep playing on IMAX until next weekend but maybe exhibitors give it another one on regular screens. Radical above my expectectations and Killers of the Flower Moon on line with them. We'll see how much WOM benefits each one of them but overall a bit of a letdown for both. Equilizer took a big hit as well after the audience clash with Scorsese's film. All horror titles also taking big drops but Nun II keeps pulling through to show up on the Top 10. Is all set and done to welcome Five Nights at Freddy's.

The Marvels shows are up and tickets go on sale on Thursday. No Wednesday previews but rather midnight shows which is the first time since The Rise of Skywalker. It's tracking... meh. Thinking The Flash/Quantumania scenario but will be a hard track with discrepancies over comps.

Sales have being rather strong. I was expecting somewhere o/u $30M but could go higher. Killers is a rough bet as it seems like there's only going 600-700 screens with a tight schedule so maybe $15M.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-5 DAYS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth on sales Increase on seats Five Nights at Freddy's 5611 7135 78.64% +9.08% 0 Comps at the same point before release Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-7 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X (T-5) 5098 17153 29.72% +28.41% 110,06% $40.72M Comps at T-0 Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc The Flash (T-0) 4812 11053 43.54% 116.6% $18.66M GOTG 3 (T-0) 6643 12606 52.69% 84.46% $20.27M I didn't get data for Flash on T-5 so excluded from comps at the same point before release. Pace is now starting to shrink as there hasn't been more allocation and occupancy is growing mostly from the latest shows added. I'm lowering my expectations to mid 10s for previews due to lack of seats for walk-ins even in smaller and independent chains where there are even midnight shows. Two theaters among the sample have surpassed 90% occupancy and other two are over 80%. This is Marvel-levels of fan-rush. WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth from T-8 Wednesday (T-5) 34 5611 7135 78.64% +9,08 Thursday (T-6) 54 3690 11876 31.07% +8,34 Total 88 9301 19011 48.92% +8,78 Comps at the same point before release Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Growth fom T-8 Comp in % Comp in lc Spiderverse (T-6) 84 8692 19284 45.07% +15% 107.01% $47.08M Barbie (T-6) 106 12557 23117 54.32% +20.09% 74.07% $78.88M Thursday is losing pace as well especially in Metro Area where matinees and early afternoon shows aren't particularly hot and is getting hurt by lack of dubbed shows on a later schedule. Two theaters have topped 70% occupancy compared to one for Spiderverse and none for Barbie at the same point. I've confirmed and this is getting both regular PLFs and Dolby shows so it's releasing similar as Barbie: no 3D, IMAX or 4D so actually lesser than expected impact on ATP as most of its fanbase and target is already up for adult prices. Pace from T-6 to T-3 shall be interesting as Spiderverse decreased and Barbie increased. I'm thinking this one decreases so it's up to final allocation to see how much more can sustain.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth on sales Increase on seats 5 Nights at Freddy's 5144 7135 72.1% +14.21% 640 Comps at the same point before release Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-7 Comp in % Comp in lc Fast X (T-7) 3970 17153 23.14% +30.38% 129,57 $47.94 The Flash (T-7) 1924 12276 15.67% +19.35% 267,36 $43.58 Comps at T-0 Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc The Flash (T-0) 4812 11053 43.54% 106.9% $17.1 GOTG 3 (T-0) 6643 12606 52.69% 77.43% $18.58 As expected pace isn't going as amazing as comps but theaters still continue to add shows in order to meet demand although I'm expecting them to slow down by now or even completely stop. Still as latest shows were recently added I'm pretty sure we'll finish with occupancy o/u 85% which is above final counts for Fast X (60%), Insidious 5 (82%) and as shown; Flash and Guardians 3 as well. In a mix of overwhelming demand and lack of supply I'm leaning on high 10s to low 20s for previews on this one which would be on par with Guardians 3 which had better walk-ins due to more screens and shows. WEDNESDAY PREVIEWS + THURSDAY OPENING Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Wednesday (T-7) 34 5144 7135 72.10% Thursday (T-8) 54 3406 11876 28.68% Total 88 8550 19011 44.97% Comps at the same time before release. None of them held previews but rather full opening Thursday. Day Number of shows Seats sold Total seats Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Spiderverse (T-8) 84 7558 19284 39.19% 113.13% $49.78 Barbie (T-8) 106 10456 23117 45.23% 81.77% $87.09 I'm using these ones because allocation in the end ends up somewhat similar and may make it for lack of screens in the case of Freddy's. The fact that is outpacing Spiderverse and this close to Barbie is quite astonishing and even though will be losing ground to Barbie in coming days that Spiderverse comp will get interesting as time goes by because by the end they may end up very close in shows and screens. Because of its core audience is still young FSS are going equally strong and spreading demand so don't think this will be much front-loaded. I do have to mention ATP calculation is going to be kinda tricky as this one won't get neither of 3D, IMAX or 4D and Dolby remains a question mark so will deflate a lot. Another quick note: this is seemingly performing better in Metro Area than Mexico City itself. Theaters where is performing better are located in urban but centric areas or suburbs which are populated mostly by families, like following examples: Buenavista - 70.5% and 71.9% occupancy for Wednesday and Thursday respectively Las Americas - 88.8% and 33.3% occupancy for Wed and Thu respectively On the other hand I'm seeing theaters located in urban and upper class neighborhoods that are populated mostly by single people in their 20s-30s or families with kids under 10 where the movie is up to a point underperforming. This will definitely skew young but if it turns out to be good or entertaining enough will get little by little all those older audiences who don't know the property and have no rush to see it will join the party as well and drive walk-ins. Let's see how pace sustains over the following and by Monday once theaters get their full schedules but I'm thinking high 30s to mid 40s opening day incl previews and $170M-$200M opening week which may very well be the third highest opening weekend for a horror title only below The Nun and It: Chapter One.

Always tricky but yeah, Taylor and BTS are way ahead of anyone else, the former wins in admissions and the latter in lc: BTS: Permission to Dance on Stage (Single day event): $120M/380K admissions across 1,970 screens. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (Fri-Sun event): $93.8M/420K admissions across 1,355 screens BTS: Yet to Come (Wed-Sat event): $109.1M/340K admissions across 624 screens Apparently other cities overperformed Mexico City (particularly Metro Area) and it shows on my sample. Great results for both Exorcist and Saw X. October needed a relief between them and Nun's great staying power. Jigsaw may fall short of $100M but would be incredible to reach it for the first time in the saga's history. Wonder if Equalizer 3 was affected by adults picking any of the horror options instead but overall not bad; on par with John Wick 3 unadjusted which adds up considering John Wick plays better with younger audiences.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S (PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth on sales from T-13 Increase on seats Five Nights at Freddy's 4504 6075 71.14% +29.61% +1029 Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Spiderverse (T-10) 6663 19284 34.55% Fast X (T-9) 3045 17085 17.82% The Flash (T-9) 1612 11682 13.8% GOTG 3 (T-0) 6643 12606 52.69% We're already seeing an increase on shows from several locations but still occupancy remains crazy high for a release with such time before release. Decided to keep Fast X comp given I don't have many previews to work with but still not doing comps in $ until maybe T-5. It's just matter of hours before it beats Flash's final count (4,812 at T-0.5 hours) Some shows were just added during Sunday so we'll see how it'll sustain pace and if theaters get additional shows. So far within the sample there are two locations that haven't got more shows and they're over 95% full. About ATP, Cinepolis has already corrected it so no more Discount Wedesday although Cinemex is keeping it for some locations. Also no IMAX, 4D or Dolby shows; only regular PLFs. Even if front-loaded this is massive and other chains are showing the same. Unlike other markets and because love for horror in here seems like even if GA doesn't know the property buzz can eventually catch it. So we're in for another breakout, Nun II's $150M is a good target but no ceiling atm.

Guesstimate but may pull through $5M/$90M+ depending on how far Sunday goes.

First 12 hours with all remaining shows included 3475/5045 - 68.8% Well this may be the best or second biggest Day One for anything this year excluding musical events otherwise it would be below BTS' Yet to Come and The Eras Tour. Apparently Cinépolis didn't exclude Wednesday Discount for previews and a lot of cheap tickets are taking down the ATP so can't really tell how it could go.

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREEDY'S (PREVIEWS) - FIRST 6 HOURS (T-13 DAYS) Two theaters are lagging so that info is missing from data. Title Sold Total Available Occupancy 5 Nights at Freddy's 1999 3911 51.11% Insidious 5 (T-7) 58 2036 2.85% Spiderverse (T-14) 2203 17820 12.36% Barbie (T-21) 1312 20805 6.31% Fast X (T-14) 825 15448 5.34% Some clarifications: Everything except for Insidious 5 was taken until 12 hours of sales. Also in the case of Barbie and Spiderverse they were taken for the full opening day since they didn't held previews. I'm dropping Insidious 5 for maybe a week but taking it back on the final days because I'm interested on how pace correct things. This year horror has always started slow but accelerated incredibly on final days so Freddy should be the exception. I'll keep Spiderverse because I'm expecting it to be closer on upfront demand and screen allocation as well. Barbie and Fast X are being dropped definitely but I just wanted to use them to show how massive these first hours were.

Destroyed in less than 6 hours by FNAF so I guess I'll go without any direct comp

It's been just an hour of sales for Freddy at Cinépolis and Universal messed up with screens

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (T-2 Days) Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 ATP Total sales in $ The Eras Tour 131 15147 24268 62.42% +4,33% $221.71 $3,358,268.50 Yeah this is as front-loaded as pretty much most of these musical events. There was a show added for a VIP theater on Friday night which inmediately filled so this is going to definitely skew big cities; out of the sample is among main Mexico City where occupancy is o/u 80% but Metro Area is abour 45%-50%. Sunday still stagnant in most places so I don't know if walk-ins may give it a final push so likely Saturday will remain its biggest day. I wonder how it would've performed without Sunday but more screens on Fri-Sat. ATP is going up in the sample because better sales for VIP shows but because of it and less VIP screens on 2nd and 3rd tier cities I'm expecting it to be lower. Sticking with mid-$70M but could be lower. Hard to tell if walk-ins are going to ramp up because unlike other comps like BTS or Coldplay, shows and seats are actually there on Sunday and with Cinemex and smaller chains as well.

Tickets for Five Nights at Freddy's going on sale next Thursday. It opens on the 26th with previews starting at 7PM on the 25th. Seemingly low initial show count so comps will be interesting.