Carlangonz

NOVEMBER 16-19 WEEKEND. 1. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $58.9M/$64.6M 2. The Marvels - $20M/$85.6M (-61.98%) 3. Five Nights at Freddy's - $15.3M/$373.1M (-43.12%) 4. Radical - $13.4M/$184.2M (-32.33%) 5. Trolls: World Tour - $11.4M/$99.5M (-18.57%) 6. The Nightmare Before Christmas (Re-issue) - $4.6M 7. Just Super - $2.6M 8. Killers of the Flower Moon - $2.1M/$47.1M (-43.24%) 9. Confesiones - $2.1M/$19.6M (-56.25%) 10. Señora Influencer - $2M/$20M (-51.22%)

Yeah, BoSS really slowed down and ended up too front-loaded. Isn't really bad but meh-ish. Marvels drop was about 64% ($20M) which isn't as bad as DOM but weekdays were completely awful. Thankfully today's a holiday and can soften the weekly drop but still looking to finish o/u $120M and Incredible Hulk. Radical once again scored a superb hold on the 30s and has now surpassed ($180M/$10M) which is a first time for a local release since No Manches Frida 2.

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-2 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-5 Hunger Games 959 3495 27.44% +42,07% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-5 Comp in % Comp in lc Transformers 1293 5407 23.91% 74.17% $6.82M MI7 854 5274 16.19% +51.69% 112.3% $6.74M Losing some ground to the Death Reckoning comp but mostly because that one got a big boost after early access previews on T-4 but gaining more to Rise of the Beasts. Less seats is an issue but I'm thinking could get to around 1.8k-2k and better occupancy, reflecting bigger fan-rush. So I'm going to go o/u $65M

Way better Sat-Sun than expected. More surprising after that poor Fri increase so behaved more like a DC rather than an MCU title. 1. The Marvels - $52.6M 2. Five Nights at Freddy's - $26.9M/$351.8M (-64.79%) 3. Radical - $19.8M/$164.7M (-33%) 4. Trolls: World Tour - $14M/$84.7M (-49.82%) 5. All Fun and Games - $4.8M 6. Confesiones - $4.8M/$15.6M (-28.36%) 7. Señora Influencer - $4.1M/$16.2M (-47.44%) 8. Killers of the Flower Moon - $3.7M/$43.8M (-43.94%) 9. The Jester - $2.5M/$15.7M (-70.24%) 10. Mavka - $2.5M There's a holiday coming next Monday so should benefit everything as Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is the only wide release. The Marvels avoided to go lower than Blue Beetle and it would requiere the worst legs of any CBM this year to not surpass Incredible Hulk but still a disaster for Marvel as it would go lower than any other Marvel release (sans New Mutants) of the last 10 years. At the end of its run, in admissions is very likely to end up below legacy Marvel releases such as all Fantastic Four releases, both Hulk movies, all X-Men titles excluding New Mutants, first Ghost Rider and maybe even Daredevil. Is indeed Marvel's Blue Bettle. Best holds are coming from local releases including Radical which is ensuring to become the highest sleeper hit of the year surpassing Sound of Freedom. It is now to a 4x multi and still going on. Killers of the Flower Moon also now surpassed a 3x multi despite its limited release and extensive runtime. Five Nights at Freddy's plummeted but is now Blumhouse biggest hit ever and looking closer of Nun II as highest grossing horror movie of the year.

Yeah. Is bad everywhere but LATAM was particularly awful considering how big it usually is for CBM.

$3M as per Disney. We'll see if it's actual or an overestimation because that would be unusual after such a low Friday. More backloaded than most MCU.

$39M-$42M seems about right Friday up to $19M - +5% from Thursday Wakanda Forever was +37% as Quantumania and Eternals were +15%.

Yeah, drop in admissions aims just over 90%

México - $0.53M In lc that's 86% down from Captain Marvel's OD back in 2019.

As wom is a mystery on first days, first day went below $10M with $9M so walk-ins equally as meh as DOM. A range right between Quantumania and Guardians points towards the lower end but I'm leaning towards high 30s. Still would below Blue Beetle and a drop o/u 85% from Captain Marvel.

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-5 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-7 Hunger Games 675 3495 19.31% +37.76% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-7 Comp in % Comp in lc MI7 563 5274 10.68% +73.77% 19,89% $6.5M I lost the Transformers comp because didn't take data for T-5 but will come back for T-2. I also adjusted MI7 comp to exclude early access in both seats and $. Both occupancy and pace still marching well towards $5M+. We just have to wait and see how front-loaded may be.

Marvels was screened for press until just 4 hours before midnight shows which is something I hadn't heard before from Disney. Quite divisive as well, some of the *positive* reactions I've read still say it could've gone straight to Disney+. Yikes.

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9 Hunger Games 490 3414 14.35% +67.81% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9 Comp in % Comp in lc Transformers 857 5407 15.85% 57.18% $5.26M MI7 965 6187 15.6% +20.93 50.78% $3.05M It just had its best days so really amazing for it. MI7 comp is skewing due to the early access data but removing it is well ahead by 50% so I'll end up removing it or adjusting it. Don't have more comps for this one so will be tough to go with a prediction but those $5M+ from the Rise of Beasts comp bode well.

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-7 HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHTS / T-18 HOURS BEFORE MATINEES Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 The Marvels 1344 30227 4.45% +87.45% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc Little Mermaid 3618 30163 11.99% +85,63% 37,15 $8.77M Spiderverse 13954 33397 41.75% +42,43% 9,63 $4.24M Barbie 23370 45283 51.61% +53,49% 5,75 $6.1M Indy 5 601 14757 4.07% +74,2% 223,63 $13.87M This is it. Depending how good or bad this goes this could be the lowest grossing opening weekend for a Marvel title since 2012's Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance and lowest ever for an MCU title. Important to notice that on the last couple of days midnight shows at several locations have vanished after poor sales including 6 from this sample. Breakdown up next for sold, total and occupancy: Midnights 187 4013 4.66% Rest of day 1157 26214 4.41% Midnights barely represent around 3% of Guardians 3's previews and 4% of those for The Flash so won't make much of a dent and barely add around $0.6M lc. Fourtunately pace remains great and has able to finish just above Little Mermaid and well over Dial of Destiny preventing from further collapse. Growth has been the best from Metro Area where needed it the most and where pace had stalled after first few days of sales which along comps make it seem like walk-ins for opening day shall be good just as they were for Little Mermaid but need a good reception like that one so it can hold good internal multi. What I'm afraid of is that just like Blue Beetle good reviews and reception won't completely save it entirely but could boost just a bit. Opening weekend: $35M-$45M ($2M-$2.6M USD)

The Marvels to release on 3,500 screens. On par with Little Mermaid and Spiderverse and around 900 above Blue Beetle. We'll see how it pays off.

Yeah, right before complete shutdown. 2022's Infelices para Siempre also crossed $100M but just barely so didn't surpassed Cindy.

NOVEMBER 2-5 WEEKEND. 1. Five Nights at Freddy's - $76.4M/$301.6M (-53.41%) 2. Radical - $30M/$132.9M (-1%) 3. Trolls: Band Together - $27.9M/$61.7M (+1.09%) 4. The Jester - $8.4M 5. Señora Influencer - $7.8M 6. Confesiones - $6.7M 8. Killers of the Flower Moon - $6.6M/$37.5M (-18.52%) 9. Hypnotic - $3.7M/$13.4M (-45.59%) 10. The Exorcist: Believer - $3.3M/$171.4M (-45%) Holidays worked pretty well for everything so we'll see how hard are drops next weekend where there's a massive screen loss. Anyways Trolls seems to be recovering from a dissapointing opening and Radical has become a sleeper hit and the biggest local hit in 4 years. Don't think Freddy has enough fuel to blow past $400M or Nun II but still shall manage to become Blumhouse's largest hit in the country surpassing last year's Black Phone and claiming another success for Jason Blum this year along Insidious 5 and to a lesser extent - M3GAN and Exorcist: Believer- which is finishing past Evil Dead: Rise and along Pope's Exorcist.

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS Title Sold Total Available Occupancy Hunger Games 292 2324 12.56% Still not adding comps until T-7.

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-3 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-6 The Marvels 717 25462 2.82% +40,86% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Comp in % Comp in lc Little Mermaid 1949 17685 11.02% +39,91% 36.79% $8.68M Spiderverse 9797 19284 50.8% +12.71% 7.32% $3.22M Barbie 15226 23117 65.86% +21,26% 4.71% $4.99M Indy 5 345 11086 3.11% 207.83% $12.89M It still lives! Unlike DOM where looks like it's plummeting here is getting a better traction and once again above Little Mermaid on pace. I'm adding Dial of Destiny as a comp due to that one's particular closeness to Little Mermaid on pace right at the end. Both grew over 80% from T-3 to T-1 so it'll be interesting to see how it gets there. Now how close will end up to Blue Beetle is up to reception. Low-end seems to be right on $30M and high-end on $55M but of course it requieres GOTG3 levels of reception.

Is keeping US translation Boy and the Heron (El Niño y La Garza)

How do you Live? (aka The Boy and the Heron) has secured a local distributor. They have December reserved for Koreeda's Monster so probably won't arrive until late January on time for awards season. Unfortunately they don't have a wide reach as they focus mostly on certain complexes within 1st tier cities so won't make much as I expected initially. PSA shall be high tho.

Would seem like its only $10M+ market is going to be UK. Maybe Korea.

THE HUNGER GAMES: BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - FIRST 12 HOURS (T-12 DAYS) 126 sold tickets / 997 total available For any future reference. I don't really have much comps for this one; I took data for Rise of the Beasts until T-7 and Little Mermaid was a full-day opening just like Marvels. Overall seems like a healthy start -above MI7 and double of Marvels- but I'm aware there may be a fan-rush.

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-6 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-8 The Marvels 509 25462 2% +35.37% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-8 Comp in % Comp in lc Little Mermaid 1393 17685 7,88 +27.56% 36.54% $8.62M Spiderverse 8692 19284 45,07 +15% 5.86% $2.58M Barbie 12557 23117 54,32 +20.09% 4.05% $4.29M It has finally surpassed Mermaid's first 30 hours! Next target is The Flash's 634 tickets which only accounted for previews instead of full Day One. So still not good at all. Pace is improving so is good to see holidays didn't completely buried it and managing to stay neck on neck with Little Mermaid. I think it can keep acceleration on par with that one but I don't know if walk-ins will be equally as healthy considering this is still an MCU entry. All that said, jumps aren't anything spectacular so unless where witnessing something completely unprecedented for a movie this size I'm staying on my position on par with Blue Beetle and somewhere on low to mid 40s opening weekend. High 30s and below DC's title would be something else but if Quatumania-like scenario happens in terms of reception I guess there's that chance.

Seems completely astonishing that even though here and Aussie things aren't particularly good they seem like Infinity War or Civil War compared to Latam where MCU has been an audience darling but this one is tracking on par/below Blue Beetle. If the whole world were to follow Mexico or Brazil we would be looking at $100M WW total or so.