Carlangonz

Weak hold for Dune if estimate is anywhere near actuals. No report for Po so previews' numbers will be added to weekend figures next weekend. By screen footprint I'm thinking it grossed around $30M from two days alone and now I'm expecting a 6-Day weekend of $170M-$180M

This is the edition I'm looking forward the most since the 2020 ceremony. Even if we already have several locks, hopefully it's a fun night.

Most of them were previews for 1 or 2 days only.

Early access numbers will be enough for Kung Fu Panda 4 to dispute No. 2 over a local opener this weekend. If they're rolled into next weekend's figures then opening can approach and surpass $150M.

After all, this is produced by Graham King who hit the jackpot already with BoRhap so only way to mess this up financially would be making it boring. I'm guessing they're adressing the allegations -on the surface- during the climax (akin to Freddy's solo career on BoRhap) only to end up with a concert or something like that on the ending. Maybe his Super Bowl performance but tbh I don't know about the timeline.

News has resonated so much over here. Akira, Dragon Ball and Goku are currently top 3 trending topics across Twitter, non-anime related media is covering the news and dubbing actors for Goku and Vegetta have expressed about it. It definitely created what it was perhaps the largest entertainment phenomenon in the 90s for the region.

Not extraordinary but still good; given runtime and audience this will perform better on weekends so should be around $135M after this weekend.

Kung Fu Panda 4 sales marching extremely well for this weekend's early access. Lack of family films since Migration/Wonka will surely boost it. Bit hard to read but is looking like the first $100M+ opener of the year and may reach $400M+ in the end taking advantage of Easter and a national holiday on the 18th.

FEBRUARY 29 - MARCH 03 WEEKEND. 1. Dune: Part Two - $66.2M 2. To the Hashira Training - $14M/$100M (-81.51%) 3. Ferrari - $10.9M/$33.6M (-36.63%) 4. Madame Web - $6.1M/$82.3M (-56.12%) 5. Desaparecer por Completo - $4.7M 6. Todas Menos Tú - $4M/$35.4M (-48.72%) 7. 57 Seconds - $3.4M/$11.1M (-39.29%) 8. One Love - $3.1M/$32.3M (-53.73%) 9. Poor Things - $2.7M/$92M (-40%) 10. Anyone But You - $2.4M/$140.1M (-45.45%) Dune starts off to a great opening. It legged almost identical to Oppenheimer from its opening day so we can expect it to go past $200M+ at the end of its run which would be o/u double of first chapter. It faces strong competition in terms of screen occupancy but not on audiences. To the Hashira Training becomes the second $100M grosser of the year; second for the Demon Slayer saga and in matter of hours will beat To the Swordsmith Village's final gross in lc; already has done so in admissions. Good hold for Ferrari despite Dune taking older crowds to theaters; perhaps an spillover effect from it. Reaching $50M may be a stretch but not an ugly result overall. Poor Things and Anyone but You now leaving the Top 10 with amazing results and holds until the last moment finishing with a 4x and a 7x multi respectively. It's been slow weeks but with big releases upcoming and Easter later this month we hopefully see bigger numbers now. Kung Fu Panda 4 opens on the 14th but is getting Early Access this weekend and Godzilla & Kong opens on Easter weekend so big numbers ahead of us.

Came right at my $12M expectation on Monday. Looks like $66M if it follows Oppy and $72M if it follows The Dial of Destiny. Quite a large share from IMAX shows; bigger than 8% from both Oppenheimer and Dunkirk.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-14 HOURS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 3537 26728 13.23% +38.38% Comps at the same point before release: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Comp in % Comp in lc Barbie 23370 45283 51.61% +53,49% 15.13% $16.04M Oppenheimer 5186 9832 52.75% +57.87% 68.2% $10.3M Spiderverse 13954 33397 41.78% +42.43% 25.35% $11.15M A bit of a stumbled finish and below expectations after the momentum it was getting on its final week. Looking at numbers there was a strong relation to lack of growth on regular screens as IMAX remains as the go to format. Even 4DX or regular PLFs aren't able to increase as much and only VIP shows are comparable. All comps decreased so nothing so far points out a breakout but rather a decent opening that will gross over 50% of first Dune's final gross.

It's still thing on TV but of course has made a big transition into streaming. Classics like DBZ remain on the biggest channels but all streamers from Netflix to local Vix and ad-supported Pluto TV have made a big effort to build up a strong library and Crunchyroll is by far the biggest especialized streaming service.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-3 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 2556 15230 16.78% +26.85% Comps at the same point before release: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Comp in % Comp in lc Barbie 15226 23117 65.86% +21.26 16.79% $17.8M Oppenheimer 3285 9716 33.81% +44.4% 77.81% $11.75M Spiderverse 9797 19284 50.8% +12.71% 26.09% $11.48M Wonderful pace throughout the weekend. At this rate is likely to increase over 50% from this point until Wednesday and seeing a final figure o/u 3.9k as expected to is good to see it didn't collapse or evolved as front-loaded as Spiderverse. I remain skeptical on how big walk-ups can be and we won't know until we finally get actuals but seeing Oppy and Spidey comps coverging seems to be locking $10M+. I know numbers point to a couple of millions above but I'm considering complexes with PLFs and IMAX are doing a lot of heavylifting and looking at individual numbers by location things vary a lot for those without those formats. Still thinking opening weekend o/u $65M but there's definitely a case for $70M+ and even a challenge for Demon Slayer numbers.

FEBRUARY 22-25 WEEKEND. 1. Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training - $75.7M 2. Ferrari - $17.2M 3. Madame Web - $13.9M/$72M (-63.23%) 4. Todas Menos Tú - $7.8M/$28.4M (-37.6%) 5. One Love - $6.7M/$27M (-48.45%) 6. 57 Seconds - $5.6M 7. The Chosen - $4.7M 8. Poor Things - $4.5M/$87.8M (-37.5%) 9. Anyone but You - $4.4M/$136.2M (-46.34%) 10. Baghead - $3.8M/25.2M (-42.42%) A year later, Demon Slayer blows expectations once again with the highest grossing opening of the year and the first one with 1M+ admissions. It'll likely remain with the title until either Kung Fu Panda 4 or Kong & Zilla dethrone it but nevertheless a wonderful result for the new entry of the saga: +20% from To The Swordsmith Village in lc and a whopping 40% increase in admissions! All newcomers dissapoint during a weekend that was already depressed for holdovers; Ferrari's numbers would've been decent if not for the fact that it released on a sizable numbers of screens (1,200+) and its PSA is quite mediocre. At this point what matters are legs. Poor Things still doing some good numbers as it already became the biggest hit for a C-Rated title since 2019's John Wick: Parabellum. Not bad for Disney. Local comedy Todas Menos Tú holds good enough to top One Love which couldn't spread a good WOM at the end and will fade away rather quickly. Anyone But You couldn't recover after its weekend 4 drop but can't argue it wasn't a pleasant surprise having surpassed even local rom-coms that came out in recent years.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 2015 15230 13.23% +20.8% Comps at the same point before release: Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Comp in % Comp in lc Barbie 12557 23117 54.32% +20.09% 16.05% $17.01M Oppenheimer 2275 9716 23.41% +28,39%* 88.57% $13.37M Spiderverse 8692 19284 45.07% +15 23.18% $10.2M * Oppenheimer only had a week of advanced sales so growth is compared from T-7. Healthy enough increase during the past two days. Premium shows at IMAX screens are quickly filling up with good seats (4th row upwards) almost gone. Comps added! Not the best ones I could hope for but the most appropiate for release or presales cycles as all of them didn't hold previews nor early access and in Barbie's case it was a 3-week window too. Unlike Oppenheimer and Spiververse don't think this one is going to face accomodations issues as will get two times as many seats as the former and occupancy won't get as high as it was for the latter on non-IMAX/VIP screens. As for Barbie I'm just not confident this will get the same attention from GA and that won't reflect on advanced sales but rather walk-ins. Oppy also had a very short 7-Day presales cycle which created a massive surge on the weekend that will likely take down that comp a bit by T-3 but at the same time I'm expecting better growth rate than Spiderverse at that point so I'm going to go for a $12M or so opening day and an o/u $65M opening weekend across the 4-Day.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 1668 15230 10.95% +17.3% Lower increase than what we were seeing so far but remains fairly normal as ATSV and Barbie went through a similar stage at the same point. I come back once again with a concern related to a single theater in the Metro Area where there was no single seat sold throught these two days which is the second time it happens during this run. Growth is steady in premium formats skewing heavily into IMAX and VIPs but traditional screens are stalling. Embargo was already lifted and there are lot of raves out there so hopefully they'll translate to bigger interest from GA.

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE HASHIRA TRAINING (T-15 HOURS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Kimetsu No Yaiba 10818 24246 44.62% +14.29% Decent finish but nothing particularly outstanding. Occupancy decreased because more shows were added across Metro Area during the final hours but some theaters still pulled an astonishing 80%+ occupancy rate. Healthy sales across premium formats particularly IMAX and 4DX; easily a record for a Japanese release in both formats even above Dragon Ball installments. Unlike To the Swordsmith Village; there's a bigger spread among people wanting to see it dubbed and those looking for a subtitled version. Sticking to a massive opening day ranging from $25M to $30M and overall opening weekend blowing past $60M+

Just FYI: at the time of Dune's release there was no HBO Max outside US and Latin America but Latam had a 45 day window for theatrical release. Rest of the world didn't get it through neither parterships (Crave on Canada or Sky on the UK for example) nor PVOD so no day-on-date effect anywhere ouside US.

Indeed. I was seeing better walk-ins on Wednesday than for any of the other two openers but sadly lack of shows crippled it; can't tell what happened over Paramount people's heads. Way too early but speaking of biopics: Universal handling Michael Jackson's biopic and releasing it on 2025's Easter weekend is genius. Will be the Super Mario/Endgame of musical biopics.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-13 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 1037 15023 6.9% +25.24% T-10 DAYS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 1422 15023 9.47% +37.13% Impressive jump during the weekend especially as there's strong movement from Metro Area where it concerned me the most. Growth in premium formats -of course mostly IMAX but also PLFs- is significant as well and has no sign of slowing down. I'll keep an eye on traditional screens to see how much can gain there.

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Kimetsu No Yaiba 8175 19436 42.06% +12.45% T-3 DAYS UPDATE Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Kimetsu No Yaiba 9465 19436 48.7% +15.78% Solid growth on its final weekend before opening. Both seats sold and occupancy shall finish above 10K and 50% respectively installing as the biggest pre-sales since Five Nights At Freddy's and probably until Godzilla & Kong or even Deadpool & Wolverine. Holding reservations for how front-loaded this may be from OD but looking like a $50M+ opener across the 4-Day. The figure would be below To the Swordwith Village's first frame a year ago in lc but above in admissions as ticket pricing was higher that time.

FEBRUARY 14-18 WEEKEND. 1. Madame Web - $37.8M/$48.9M 2. One Love - $13.1M/$16.1M 3. Todas Menos Tú - $12.5M/$15M 4. Anyone but You - $8.2M/$129.2M (-30.51%) 5. Poor Things - $7.2M/$80.7M (-26.53%) 6. Baghead - $6.6M/$19.3M (-21.43%) 7. Past Lives - $4.8M/$28M (-23.81%) 8. Turning Red - $4.6M/$10.3M (-11.54%) 9. Argylle - $3.4M/$49.7M (-61.36%) 10. Wonka - $3.2M/$468.4M (-11.11%) Decent start for Madame Web fueled by Valentine's Day where it surpassed The Marvels' opening day but underwhelming weekend overall. On par with the latest Marvel Studios' production and a bit above DC's Blue Beetle. As those two; it's under Morbius and even lower than underperformances like 2019's Dark Phoenix or 2015's F4ntastic. One Love also delivers underwhelming results. Its distributor didn't bet on screens -just a third of those for Madame Web- and cracked a very similar Per-Screen Average. Musical biopics can enjoy very nice legs so it can be a medium-term bet if distributor doesn't drop the ball. Anyone but You took a sizable drop after facing some competition but nevertheless nothing dramatic unlike local comedy Todas Menos Tú (it translates as Everyone but You, sigh) which -guess again- was the third underperformer of the week with even a higher screen count than One Love. The rom-com lead by Glen Powell and Sidney Sweeney is still clear from strong competition for another couple of weeks. Audiences still catching up with Poor Things and Past Lives before Oscar ceremony with great holds particularly the latter which can be seen as a pleasant surprise. For Emma Stone, the former is now among her highest grossing features surpassing titles like Birdman and soon La La Land. Wonka is still turning in the Top 10 and now it has surpassed San Andreas as Warner's 8th highest grossing title ever.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-15 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Dune II 828 15023 5.51% +32.91% Like Kimetsu No Yaiba, I have no comps this far out for this one either but I'd say these ones are pretty good too and pointing towards a 3k+ final ticket count which is amazing. I'm going cautious as growth in Metro Area theaters isn't as great as it is in Mexico City itself but a bit of a marketing push from Warner (kudos to what they've already done) and it could very well push $70M+ across the opening weekend.

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS) Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Kimetsu No Yaiba 7270 19436 37.4% +14.4% I have no appropiate comps at this very same point but is still marching well for something that may well be front-loaded. Not going to use it as a comp but funny thing is that is running quite similar as Across the Spiderverse in net sales and even better in pace. Ultimately won't get the same capacity or walk-ins so won't get close to its opening day over $40M but $25M is boding well. There's no way around to the fact that Dragon Ball has found a successor in here.

MADAME WEB (T-15 HOURS) Seats sold Seats available Occupancy 964 20996 4.59% Comps at the same point before release Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in $ The Marvels 1344 30227 4.45% 71.73% $6.67M Aquaman 2 2588 25882 10% 37.25% $8.49M I'm not seeing many group purchases but rather many for couples so Valentine's Day may give it the edge to have better walk-ins than The Marvels. Other comps like Little Mermaid or action-packed Dead Reckoning also indicate $8M which seems like a perfect opening day target. Days after Valentine's Day will see a sizable drop and pending WOM we'll be seeing $35M-$45M across the 5-Day opening.