Carlangonz

DECEMBER 20-24 WEEKEND. 1. The Lost Kingdom - $62.7M/$85.5M 2. Wonka - $32.2M/$260.5M (-51.94%) 3. Migration - $13.1M/$61.3M (-55.59%) 4. Napoleon - $3.1M/$127.2M (-59.74%) 5. Lord of Misrule - $2.6M 6. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $2.1M/$182M (-66.13%) 7. Papá o Mamá - $1.5M/$48.3M (-70.59%) 8. Wish - $1.4M/$84.8M (-62.16%) 9. Journey to Bethlehem - $0.762M 10. The Mean One - $0.715M/$6.2M (-80.68%) Walk-ins for Aquaman's opening day were way ahead than expected but then Thu-Fri were just okay with a small bump on Sat-Sun. With holidays going and New Year's next week it should comfortably pass $200M by that point. Wonka still going strong. It'll cross $300M before New Year's Eve and then will look to join to the $350M+ club with Elemental, The Meg 2 and Transformers. Migration just going along but it doesn't seem like it's blowing up. Even with holidays will do just the same range as Trolls and Paw Patrol. As seen, most of holdovers are already losing ground with newcomers and will likely vanish after this week.

At T-14 hours; The Boy and the Heron was 60% above First Slam Dunk on sales. Nothing massive but should do well o/u $3M on Christmas and $12M+ across the 7-Day opening. We'll see how walk-ins work but big cities are of course excelling on sales; occupancy is up to 70% on the major locations. Happy holidays everyone!

Yeah is looking like o/u $80M for Aquaman until Sunday which is on the higher end. Past $100M after Christmas so at least should beat Fury of the Gods. Wonka is spectacular. Should be above a 3x multi after Christmas with New Year still ahead.

Shin Godzilla and Spirited Away should go down on opening weekend alone. Minus One may be a smaller Demon Slayer and was thinking on Boy and Heron to do on par with Suzume. Latter is being particularly hurt by being sided on small cities. Demon Slayer and Suzume launched on 700+ and 300+ screens respectively. Minus One and Boy and the Heron may be looking at 400+ and 100+ for each.

Not counting but 'Zilla looking to breakout. It'll take 4DX and PLF's from Aquaman next Thursday with sales seeing an acceleration over the past few days. Boy and the Heron also tracking to good numbers for early acess on Monday.

AQUAMAN: THE LOST KINGDOM (T-14 HOURS) - OPENING DAY Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Aquaman 2 2588 25882 10% +205.56% Comps at the same point before release Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc The Marvels 1344 30227 4.45% +187.45% 192.56% $17.91M Spiderverse 13954 33397 41.78% +142-43% 18.55% $8.16M In the end has managed to improve and outperform comps by a large margin so it has avoided the worst so we'll see how it grows over the holidays. First Aquaman also had a 5-Day opening weekend but Sunday wasn't deflated like this one is going to be by Christmas' Eve. All said, by the time I'm writing this there have been shows by nearly 7 hours and walk ins have been decent enough so looks like will follow a trajectory similar to The Marvels. For the Marvel title the best comp turned out to be Little Mermaid which in this case also points towards a $17M opening day. Considering prices have had a significant increase I think we're looking to o/u $20M. First Jumanji grossed nearly $60M with the same calendar configuration back in 2017 but with a Thursday opening instead of a Wednesday one so I'm thinking Arthur Curry may be approaching $70M-$80M 5-Day opening putting it on par with this year's Fury of the Gods. Funny enough; Fury of the Gods first Monday was also a very lucrative holiday where it added $25M. Aquaman shall do something close to $30M as well after Christmas Day.

DECEMBER 14-17 WEEKEND 1. Wonka - $67M/$191.9M (-20.24%) 2. Migration - $29.5M/$33M 3. Napoleon - $7.7M/$120.2M (-37.9%) 4. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $6.2M/$176.6M (-36.08%) 5. Papá o Mamá - $5.1M/$44M (-44.57%) 6. Wish - $3.7M/$81.3M (-53.75%) 7. The Mean One - $3.7M 8. The Mash King's Daughter - $3.4M 9. Seventeen: Tour Follow to Japan - $3.1M 10. It Lives Inside - $2.2M/$8.8M (-50%)

Original animation really struggling. We'll see if WOM carries it but Migration may be another Ferdinand and do just okay. Gitesh reports -18% for Wonka and with holidays ahead it'll be a fun run to see how close it ends up from $400M.

Tickets at Cinepolis are hiking to an all-time high starting this weekend. Increase is about 10% for all formats. Cinemex is keeping prices for now but they just opened their first two IMAX screens at Mexico City. One of them is the first IMAX Platinum (VIP/Dine-in) of the country (and I believe the region) and prices for an IMAX 3D show are reaching an all-time high for any non-special content show at any chain with $350 lc ($20 USD).

Disney+ has hurt the brand but overall I think the brand has seen damage by their productions getting cheapened by overwhelming quantity and a lack of quality. Is pretty much similar as US because Disney is probably the only studio of which people recognize its brands and are aware all of them (Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm) are under the same umbrella. So I guess is a strange perception effect where results over one of them affects the others. Kinda like what is happening with SH overall too.

At T-10, Aquaman had sold 369/18,906 tickets for opening day which translates to better initial pace than The Marvels which was at 285/25,462. If can keep it up then it'll be more akin to Shazam 2 than Blue Bettle but nevertheless an underwhelming result. I have to point out as well that T-10 for The Marvels was a Monday whereas for Aquaman was a Sunday so numbers will be a bit tricky to compare. Boy and the Heron started sales last week and they started well but mostly contained to big cities. Godzilla: Minus One starts in a few hours but expecting better numbers from it. Hopefully both can replicate their DOM breakout.

DECEMBER 8-11 WEEKEND. 1. Wonka - $84M/$89.4M 2. Napoleon - $12.4M/$107,3M (-48.33%) 3. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $9.7M/$165.8M (-37.82%) 4. Papá o Mamá - $9.2M/$35M (-48.89%) 5. Wish - $8M/$74.7M (-57.89%) 6. It Lives Inside - $4.4M 7. Silent Night - $3.7M 8. Migration - $3.4M 9. Thanksgiving - $2.9M/$16.9M (-70.71%) 10. Radical - $2.3M/$206.3M (-30.30%) Great for Wonka and great walk-ins for previews which ended up a bit higher than what comps signaled. It is the best opening for the market since Five Nights at Freddy's and with holidays ahead may end up nearing $300M. Napoleon is doing just okay and at in a few hours shall be surpassing both Blue Beetle and The Marvels. Hunger Games is now benefiting from spillover from young audiences attending Wonka and its splendid wom. Wish and Thanksgiving are being completely rejected. The latter will make just over $1M USD despite notable efforts from Sony to make it work and the former will join to other non-documentaries from Disney to go under $100M like this year's Dial of Destiny, Solo, Tomorrowland and A Wrinkle in Time. Migration held early access during Sunday but they went quite poor. We'll see if positive early WOM takes effect once it opens this Thursday but not looking like it'll breakout like Wonka, at least not during opening weekend. Radical is now leaving the Top 10 having surpassed $200M and outliving several titles from Freddy to The Marvels and Trolls.

Don't have any numbers but Wonka still increasing on shows. One of my locals went from 4 on Thursday to 9 for Saturday. May be climbing close to Elemental's $80M which would be the best start since Five Nights at Freddy's.

Even among CBM-type communities I'm seeing a lot of fatigue. After The Flash a lot of people started to mock on all Blue Beetle/Marvels/Aquaman expecting on them t be disasters and after one's fiasco the mockery increases on the next one. Seems like it's a rather generalized feeling among audiences. Anyway, Wonka is in fact getting more screens for Friday compared to Thursday and will probably continue to do so throughout the weekend.

Latam will be tough because Mexico will start holidays soon and will benefit it but South America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile) doesn't really benefit until their summer begins on January.

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom first 12 hours of sales - 33/19,059 Only comp would be The Marvels which sold 49 tickets and 35 without accounting sales for midnight shows. Because of the holidays, Aquaman will open on Wednesday (20th) without midnights or previews. Of course holiday pattern may change things but still won't save it from being another disaster for the genre which even the most miraculous scenario would be just a bit above Fury of the Gods' numbers ($190M). After all, two concert events from BTS and Taylor Swift along with an indie horror film (Talk to Me) and an anime special release (Demon Slayer: TTSV) are looking to be much more compelling successes than 3 of the 6 CBM releases this year. Consume patterns are indeed changing which is something astonishing to witness considering this has been a market that has always been welcoming to superheroes.

WONKA (T-0.5 HOURS) - WEDNDESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Wonka 1420 3285 43.23% Comps at the same point before launch Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Comp in % Comp in lc Transformers 2657 5407 49.14% 53.44% $4.92M Hunger Games 1792 3567 50.24% 79.24% $4.52M As Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes it'll be capped by lack of shows and in theory should act less front-loaded. In theory is a big *asterisk* because honestly Warner isn't giving it much more screens for the rest of the weekend and keeping it with 1,200-1,500 screens which is way less than those 2,500+ of the two comps and below Wish's 2,400 screens two weeks ago. If audiences respond well (reviews are quite glowing) then we should see it improving by Sat/Sun and offsetting that initial lack of allocation. 2005's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory adjusts to $130M which is just a perfect target for Mr Wonka.

Wonka rapidly accelerating on sales. Allocation is similar to that of Songbirds and Snakes so $5M should be the target for previews and $60M for the weekend. Aquaman started today but before doing any counting I'm expecting yet another BB/Marvels-level disaster. It's not pulling good numbers anywhere on engagement metrics. It may save face with holidays but still ugly.

NOVEMBER 30 - DECEMBER 3 WEEKEND. 1. Napoleon - $24M/$86.8M (-50.72%) 2. Wish - $19M/$61.7M (-45.24%) 3. Papá o Mamá - $18M 4, Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $15.6M/$149.5M (-46.94%) 5. Thanksgiving - $9.9M 6. Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce - $5.7M 7. Radical - $3,3M/$203.9M (-52.86%) 8. Five Nights at Freddy's - $3.1M/$392.4M (-55.71%) 9. Digimon Adventure 02: The Beginning - $2.9M 10. The Marvels - $2.7M/$107.8M (-64%) Atrocious week for everything and one of the lowest of the year. Yet Napoleon is on track to beat both Wish, The Marvels and Trolls 3 so there's another win for adult dramas this year. Wish is looking to potentially go below Dial of Destiny as Disney's worst result of the year and 3rd worst ever for WDAS. Hunger Games still delivering decent numbers and may approach $10M but not above it. As for new openers local Papá o Mamá did just ok but nothing outstanding and Tótem failed to nab Top 10 so most likely will be just a silent run among art-houses and big cities. Renaissance as expected didn't make numbers as big as Eras Tour, Yet to Come or even BTS' Suga solo concert. It was a one weekend event at Cinepolis and Cinemex will keep it running in a few locations until Wednesday but will probably just round up to $6M. The Marvels went real fast from No. 4 to No. 10 so will end up just on par with Blue Beetle. Is kinda nuts that after 2 months the second best result for Q4 after Freddy's has been Radical and even crazier there's nothing assured to top it; Aquaman is looking to make Fury of the Gods' numbers and Wonka/Migration combo could go either way.

Should've been a rough weekend. Renaissance most likely went sub-$10M.

Tótem is going to be its distributor's widest release ever with 400+ screens so hopefully WOM catches it. H2 of 2023 has been from decent to great for local cinema and it would be awesome to end well on this one. Wonka has surprisingly seen good metrics all along but presales have been somewhat lacking. We'll see if good reception is there and becomes another TGS/Jumanji. Migration is getting a strong push from Universal with ads everywhere including Cinépolis' spots right before every show this month. Boh The Boy and the Heron and Godzilla Minus One are opening on December 28th with the former having a limited release on Christmas Day and tickets going on sale soon.

NOVEMBER 23-26 WEEKEND. 1. Napoleon - $48.7M 2. Wish - $34.7M 3. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $29.4M/$123.5M (-49.66%) 4. The Marvels - $7.5M/$102.8M (-62.5%) 5. Radical - $7M/$198.2M (-47.76%) 6. Five Nights at Freddy's - $7M/$387.3M (-54.25%) 7. The Haunting of the Queen Mary - $4.6M 8. Trolls: World Tour - $4.4M/$109.7M (-61.4%) 9. The Return of the King (re-issue) - $1.5M 10. The Nightmare Before Christmas (re-issue) - $1.2M/$7.5M Napoleon completely overperformed expectations and outopened titles such as Killers of the Flower Moon and Equalizer 3. For Ridley Scott is on par with The Martian which also was a Thursday opening. If they can sneak out some of that in the promo for Gladiator 2 it'll certainly help. For Wish is among the worst results for WDAS; both audience and lc is on par with Encanto which was released amidst pandemic and doesn't seem like it'll hold similar legs with upcoming competition from Wonka and Migration. It'll be an uphill battle to catch $100M. Songbirds and Snakes had an okay hold but it had a big boost from last Monday's holiday; is looking like a $180M+ finish. As other holdovers like Radical and Trolls it had a hit from losing screens to both openers (2000+ each) but next week is completely empty for newcomers. The Marvels is quicky losing steam with a drop similar as last week's and now running close to Blue Bettle at the same point of release. $110M shall be the final milestone. Until last Thursday was able to surpass Captain Marvel's opening day in admissions. Radical looking to surpass $200M before the weekend starts and Five Night at Freddy's is now the highest grossing horror of the year.

What an awful year for Disney. Only two of their films will end within yearly Top 10 and not a single one among Top 3. Both feats happened in 2021 as well but at least had No Way Home's co-production credit.

Napoleon currently outpacing Dial of Destiny in sales which bodes well for a $30M+ debut which is double of Killers of the Flower Moon and nearly half of Oppenheimer. Things aren't looking too hot for Wish. I still believe is winning the weekend but may be closer to Napoleon than it seemed.

I'm expecting it to top No.1 but not a massive splash. Maybe a $50M opener once again but wouldn't shock me low 40s. Napoleon is getting a lot of promo everywhere from Sony and is seemingly working. Not Oppenheimer numbers but above Killers of the Flower Moon with something around $25M.