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Carlangonz

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Posts posted by Carlangonz

  1. 2 hours ago, carlsalf38 said:

    Hello. This is my first post in this forum. How much do you think Christopher Robin will gross in Mexico? I'm going with at least 45 Million Pesos but not sure how to measure interest here (although I know a lot of people who want to see the movie). 

    Ya Veremos is being promoted like it could be a really big hit but haven't not heard much interest. Probably 25 Million?

    Welcome to the forums :D It's great to have more local people around here

     

    The # of screens for CR is quite low compared to other blockbusters so i don't know why Disney doesn't trust on it, isn't an unknown property. Anything under $5M USD would be disappointing.

     

    Ya Veremos is following a similar strategy to other Videocine titles: a lot of screens and marketing to build buzz post-opening, can explode to $150M+ or stay in the conservative area of $80M-$100M.

  2. JULY 26-29 WEEKEND. SOLID RESULT FOR FALLOUT; BEST FOR THE FRANCHISE. LOCAL OPENERS FLOP AND FALLEN KINGDOM ABOUT TO PASS JURASSIC WORLD.

     

    Mission: Impossible – Fallout

    -3-Day is 13% ahead of Rogue Nation and 4-Day is 15% ahead of the same title topping it as the best start for the franchise. Also above Fury Road (67.20%+) but behind last year’s Mummy (-15.28%).

    - Competition comes in two weeks with The Meg so shouldn’t have any issue to pass $200M and become franchise’s highest grosser, might even top $220M

     

    Hotel Transylvania 3

    -Is continuing its run at the same pace over HT2, actually, it increased this weekend going from 27%+ to 29%+, that’s thanks to stunning retentions on weekdays.

    - Still tracking to finish with $500M+ if Christopher Robin doesn’t destroy it this weekend, although with three more weeks of holidays both can perfectly co-exist.

     

    The First Purge

    -Incredible drop considering its huge opening, after this is only grossing for sport, should finish over/under $10M USD.

     

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    -Locked to pass Jurassic World! Excellent run, should finish with $690M; ahead of JW’s $685M becoming 10th highest grosser of all time.

     

     

    # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
    1 Mission: Impossible - Fallout $75.76   $91.69 $4.93 1.2 1.5
    2 Hotel Transylvania 3 $40.9 -45,68% $406.6 $21.52 844.04K 8.7
    3 The First Purge $28.98 -53,18% $147.9 $7.80 540.6K 2.9
    4 Más Sabe el Diablo por Viejo $19.84   $23.42 $1.25 360.01K 431.27K
    5 Skyscraper $10.11 -66,74% $172.48 $9.12 200.64K 3.3
    6 Ahí Viene Cascarrabias $7.71   $8.99 $483K 153.5K 180.73K
    7 Ant-Man and the Wasp $6.8 -61,58% $275.14 $14.42 131.49K 5.4
    8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $6.61 -54,09% $682.55 $34.46 133.96K 13.5
    9 Adrift $3.29 -65,72% $22.01 $1.16 44.6K 342.08K
    10 Wildling $2.16   $2.56 $137K 42.03K 50.51K

     

    This Thursday opens: Christopher Robin, Darkest Minds, Ya Veremos, Cold Skin, Submergence, Chavela and Loveling

    • Like 5
  3. 4 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

    Weekend estimates as per Deadline:

    • MI:F was No. 1 with $4.8M at 815 cinemas and the biggest franchise start at 176% above Ghost Protocol and 12% above Rogue Nation.

    Solid result. Should land at $210M+ in the end, on par with Mummy unfortunately.

     

    4 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

     

    • HT3: Mexico continues to lead all hubs with $21.3M to date after the 3rd frame. So it's in the 400M lc vicinity.

    Just passed HT2 total, still 30% ahead of it so $500M are more and more doable.

    • Like 1
  4. With Incredibles 2 breaking into the Top 10 ever and with a locked position as #7 ever and Fallen Kingdom remaing there with a small chance to join the club let's ckeck an updated chart by both gross and admissions.

     

    TOP 10 ALL-TIME BY GROSS

    # Title Year Distributor Lifetime Gross
    1 Avengers: Infinity War 2018 BuenaVista $1,140,500,000*
    2 Coco 2017 BuenaVista $1,101,564,822
    3 Marvel's The Avengers 2012 BuenaVista $827,122,714
    4 Avengers: Age of Ultron 2015 BuenaVista $784,083,100
    5 Furious 7 2015 UPI $779,293,817
    6 Toy Story 3 2010 BuenaVista $777,482,842
    7 Incredibles 2 2018 BuenaVista $741,000,000**
    8 Captain America: Civil War 2016 BuenaVista $728,156,354
    9 Minions 2015 UPI $724,796,427
    10 Jurassic World 2015 UPI $685,841,921

     

     

    TOP 10 ALL-TIME BY ADMISSIONS

    # Title Year Distributor Admissions
    1 Coco 2017 BuenaVista 23,375,675
    2 Avengers: Infinity War 2018 BuenaVista 21,490,000*
    3 Minions 2015 UPI 16,145,698
    4 Marvel's The Avengers 2012 BuenaVista 15,943,208
    5 Avengers: Age of Ultron 2015 BuenaVista 15,735,532
    6 Furious 7 2015 UPI 15,534,041
    7 No se Aceptan Devoluciones 2013 Videocine 15,199,633
    8 Incredibles 2 2018 BuenaVista 15,080,000**
    9 Toy Story 3 2010 BuenaVista 14,826,134
    10 Captain America: Civil War 2016 BuenaVista 14,523,084

     

    * Up to June 18

    ** Up to July 22

    • Like 7
  5. JULY 19-22 WEEKEND. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3 ON WAY TO BECOME SONY’S SECOND BIGGEST TITLE EVER; THE FIRST PURGE OVERPERFORMS BIG ON OPENING.

     

    Hotel Transylvania 3

    -27.68% ahead of Hotel Transylvania 2; keeping the current pace puts it with a $510M+ end which translates as the biggest hit ever for Sony in the country passing last year’s Spider-Man: Homecoming by nearly $20M lc.

    - Its chances to cross $500M aren’t small (great call @Purple Minion), we’ll see how it goes

     

    The Last Purge

    -Huge opening, the best for the franchise beating Election Year by a whopping 134.9%, $100M are an easy target, expect something between $150M-$170M total, the previous one had terrific legs but I’m expecting this one to be more front-loaded after this opening.

     

    Skyscraper

    -Running 22% behind Rampage and 42% ahead of Hercules at the same point of release, using both comps the end for the title seems to be $180M, it should finish between that number and $170M

     

    Ant-Man and the Wasp

    -Already passed the first’s total and runs 23% ahead at the same cycle, final figure is now between $280M-$290M

     

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    -Great holds for both weekend and weekdays, is coming closer and closer to end with the same gross than the first JW, rare and incredible level of retention from one to another title.

     

    # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
    1 Hotel Transylvania 3 $75.3 -44,09% $320.5 $16.94 1.4 6.6
    2 The First Purge $61.9   $79.1 $4.14 1.1 1.3
    3 Skyscraper $30.4 -49,66% $139.6 $7.37 537.7K 2.6
    4 Ant-Man and the Wasp $17.7 -48,69% $257.4 $13.48 290.10k 4.97
    5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $14.4 -37,93% $666.6 $33.62 256.03K 13.1
    6 Adrift $9.6   $11.3 $592K 137.06K 164.5K
    7 Incredibles 2 $6.4 -46,79% $741 $36.56 116.7K 15.03
    8 Tag $5.3   $6.3 $330K 82.1K 98.5K
    9 Life of the Party $1.9 N/A $15.8 $811K 37.5K 299.1K
    10 Attack on Titan: Kakusei No Hoko $1.7   $1.7 $89K 17.9K 17.9K

     

    This Thursday opens: Mission Impossible: Fallout, Más Sabe el Diablo por Viejo, Ahí Viene Cascarrabias, Wildling, Marrowbone, La Nuit a Devore le Monde and The Student.

    • Like 4
    • Astonished 1
  6. 10 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

    The First Purge had a $4.1M OW, decent enough.

     

    Totals as per @BORReport:

    • Skyscraper $7.5M (meh)
    • AMATW $13.5M (meh)
    • I2 $36.8M (magnificent)

     

    And from Screendaily:

    • HT3: Mexico led the way on $3.8M for $16.7M total. So it crossed 300M lc.

     

     

    I would say that's just insane for First Purge, just a huge overperformance. Big shot to consolidate this time as the biggest market for the film.

     

    As you say: 'meh' for both AMATW and Skyscraper. I have to admit I'm surprised by that AMATW's hold -on the 50s- tho; theatres near me have downgraded it to the same amount of shows of FK and I2.

     

    The path to $450M+ for HT3 looks pretty damn well.

    • Like 1
  7. JULY 12-15 WEEKEND. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3 TOPS ITS PREDECESSOR TO BECOME SONY'S SECOND BIGGEST OPENING; SKYSCRAPER BEHIND PREVIOUS DWAYNE JOHNSON'S TITLES.

     

    Hotel Transylvania 3

    - 3% ahead of HT2, thanks to the 4th day tomorrow should pass first HT total.

    - Given the current scenario where there's no family movie until August 2th (Christopher Robin) it should top the previous entry of the franchise with $430M+ but that's quite conservative and could go as far as $500M+

     

    Skyscraper

    - 32% behind Rampage, actually, it's closer to Rampage's second frame ($55M) than of its opening.

    - Unlike HT3 this one does have strong competition; it'll lose screens next weekend to The First Purge and then Mission Impossible: Fallout is taking it both screens and audience.

     

    Ant-Man and the Wasp

    - Third worst drop in the MCU only below Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Age of Ultron and puts in risk the $300M+ milestone, if keeps this way is looking to finish with $270M-$280M, quite a disappointing increase from the first one considering other MCU's second parts grew over 30% - except Iron Man 2 which only increased 18%- and this one only would grow 10%-14%

     

    Incredibles 2

    - Now, the title has officially passed Minions and with this now is the third biggest animation ever only behind Coco and Toy Story 3, all Top 3 is Pixar. By tomorrow it should pass Civil War as 6th highest Disney property grosser and 7th highest grosser of all-time.

     

    # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
    1 Hotel Transylvania 3 $134.7   $161.2 $8.54 2.6 3.15
    2 Skyscraper $60.4   $70.7 $3.74 1.06 1.26
    3 Ant-Man and the Wasp $34.5 -67,59% $218.4 $11.43 621.3K 4.18
    4 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $23.2 -58,19% $636.14 $32.02 446.4K 12.4
    5 Incredibles 2 $12.03 -68,44% $726.40 $35.83 235.6K 14.7
    6 Incident in a Ghostland $5.20   $6.06 $321K 96.73K 114.17K
    7 A Ti Te Quería Encontrar $2.3 -68,96% $44.8 $2.28 39.3K 876.3K
    8 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $1.64 -73,24% $38.8 $1.97 27.09K 723.2K
    9 FIFA World Cup: France VS Croatia $1.4   $1.4 $74K 28K 28K
    10 Cigarettes et Chocolat Chaud $681.07K   $788.68K $41K 9.35K 10.9K

     

    This Thursday opens: The First Purge, Tag, Adrift and Mon Garçon

     

     

    • Like 5
  8. 1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

    HT2 did 400.16M lc back in 2015. I am going to bet 1 taco al pastor (with or without pineapple) that it passes 500M lc!

    That's a risky bet, no competition and a whole month of holidays so i say is entirely doable, although is almost certain that it'll finish closer to $500M than $400M 

     

    And btw... it obviously has to be with pineapple :redcapes:

    • Like 1
  9. 10 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

    $11.5M total for AMATW. Surely it can reach 300M lc? Would it? 🤔

     

    I2 reaches $36M, welcome to the 700M lc club! Fantastic performance.

     

    Poor $3.7M OW for Skyscraper. Still, a bigger gross than Solo...

     

    Great result for HT3, thanks to holidays it'll comfortably should pass $400M, another success for the franchise.

     

    AMATW is about $220M lc, although if the estimate is spot on then that's a 66% drop (ouch!), it'll be relieved for two weeks before MI:F limits its screens but $300M are not looking good.

     

    Those internal multipliers for I2 and Skyscraper are better than i expected. If true, then tomorrow morning I2 should've been passed both Minions and CW. Skyscraper is pretty meh, below San Andreas and Rampage and on par with Hercules.

     

    I remember when i thought Solo would gross less than TFA's 4-Day OW and ended up grossing less than RO's 4-Day OW, that's just sad...

    • Like 4
  10. On 7/13/2018 at 10:58 AM, Valonqar said:

    Latino character(s) have no impact on LA boxoffice.

    True. Latin audiences doesn't feel that as representation, tell their stories is truly representative, just look at Coco. 

     

    And surprisingly, latinos support more local talent such as writers or directors than actors. See It's hit in Argentina or The Shape of Water's numbers in Mexico.

    • Like 4
  11. HT3 heads towards a $155M-$165M 4-Day OW, 3-Day is on par with the two previous installments of the franchise. 

     

    Skyscraper has a 'meh' opening in the $60M-$65M range

     

    AMATW sinking with an unprecedented 65%+ drop which is awful for an MCU solo

     

    I2 also looking to a terrible drop, although there are good news: thanks to wonderful weekdays it'll be passing Minions and Civil War to claim #7 all-time spot on Monday.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
  12. 6 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

    Wow.  Deadline reports:  HT3 on pace to be Sony Pictures’ second biggest debut behind Spider-Man: Homecoming with $1.4M in Thursday previews.

     

    :ohmygod:

    Should finish the 4-Day weekend with $160M-$180M, 3-Day just above the first two installments

    5 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

    With ER < 19, are 500M lc possible?

    Maybe, it'll keep the audiences and screens from here until August 3rd when Christopher Robin arrives, in any case should easily top HT2 as the highest grosser of the franchise.

    • Thanks 1
  13. JULY 05-08 WEEKEND. ANT-MAN AND THE WASP OPENS ON TOP AND 26% AHEAD OF FIRST ANT-MAN; DINOS MARCH TOWARDS A MINIMUM DROP FROM FIRST JURASSIC AND INCREDIBLES JOINS TOP 10 ALL-TIME.

     

    Ant-Man and the Wasp

    - 26.30% ahead of first Ant-Man’s opening and 5th highest opening for a MCU second installment just a shy behind The Dark World but ahead of Iron Man 2.

    - Debuted at 3,480 screens, behind of the usual 4,200+ screen count from titles such as Doctor Strange, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

    - Next weekend HT3 and Skyscraper are going to reduce its number of screens but weekdays should help it since holidays for schools have started today, given that situation should finish just over/under $300M

    - Useless random fact: With this title, the MCU now would have a perfect two years/six movies strike of $300M+ movies and is looking to extend it for another year.

     

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    -Running 3.47% ahead of first JW at the same point of release, with upcoming competition is aiming to a final total of $660M+, only 3%-4% under first Jurassic World, a % retention a la Age Of Ultron from Avengers (-5%).

     

    Incredibles 2

    -1.27% ahead of Minions at the same point of release

    - Is possible but not locked yet to pass Minions as 3rd highest animation ever and 8th highest grosser ever (today is 9th) and might even beat Civil War as 7th biggest title ever and 4th biggest SH title of all-time only behind the Avengers trilogy.

     

    Another useless fact: 18 out of 27 weekends of the year have had at least one SH movie in the Top 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp, Venom, Teen Titans, Into the Spiderverse and Aquaman should add at least another 10.

     

    This Thursday opens: Hotel Transylvania 3, Skyscraper, Incident in a Ghostland, Cigarettes et Chocolat Chaud and El Buquinista.

     

    # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
    1 Ant-Man and the Wasp $106.46   $129.29 $6.74 1.8 2.3
    2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $55.5 -54,97% $581.9 $29.17 1.07 11.28
    3 Incredibles 2 $38.12 -50,16% $692.74 $34.06 748.6K 13.9
    4 A Ti Te Quería Encontrar $7.41 -57,89% $38.08 $1.93 129.73K 733.72K
    5 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $6.13 -62,06% $33.6 $1.70 103.7K 617.6K
    6 Still Born $3.92   $4.54 $236K 74.9K 88.15K
    7 Life of the Party $2.14 -61,92% $11.98 $609K 35.23K 220.3K
    8 Ocean's 8 $1.04 -65,10% $125.08 $6.08 15.7K 2.24
    9 Happy End $1.0   $1.12 $58K 14.61K 16.5K
    10 Locos de Amor $759.18K   $885.8K $46K 12.2K

    14.38K

    • Like 7
  14. Lol @Purple Minion xD 

     

    I'm really surprised by AMATW, whereas GOTG2 increased over 70% from first GOTG now AMATW is growing just shy over 10% from first AM, that's really weird, wom needs to do a quick effect or the screen loss due to HT3 and Skyscraper is going to affect it very much.

     

    And... doing some more math, I2 is about $2M-$3M over Minions at same point of release, it has a very long shot at beating it ($724M) if has extremely good weekdays from here until HT3's arrival. Top 3 animation could be entirely Pixar.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  15. JUNE 28-JULY 1 WEEKEND. FALLEN KINGDOM AND INCREDIBLES 2 TAKE ON WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTIONAL HOLDS; NEW OPENERS GET A SPOT ON THE CHART.

     

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    - 4th best second weekend of all-time, 16.5% over JW's second frame

    - 4% above Jurassic World at the same point of release

    - With upcoming competition across the next two weeks probably won't be able to keep the same pace ahead JW but should be able to pass $650M

     

    Incredibles 2

    - Running 3% behind Minions at the same point of release

    - Very likely to pass $700M if can hold the impact of AMATW, highly probable to pass JW as 9th highest grosser of all-time, it should pass BvS as 11th at some point during the week.

     

    # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
    1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $123.26 -39,54% $465.89 $23.23 2.22 8.83
    2 Incredibles 2 $76.5 -33,99% $616.5 $30.16 1.4 12.2
    3 A Ti Te Quería Encontrar $17.6   $20.4 $1.03 312.2K 366.8K
    4 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $16.16   $18.4 $930K 272.9K 316.2K
    5 Life of the Party $5.62   $6.50 $328K 94.71K 110.5K
    6 Ocean's 8 $2.98 -64,52% $122.25 $5.94 47.4K 2.19
    7 Jan-San-Beom $2.34   $2.64 $133K 46.3K 53.1K
    8 Mission Kathmandu $2.24   $2.46 $124K 46.3K 51.2K
    9 El Habitante $1.65 -67,89% $28.2 $1.37 31.49K 619.93K
    10 Hereditary $1.33 -58,43% $54.9 $2.67 23.09K 1.14

     

    This Thursday opens: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Still Born, Terminal, Locos de Amor 2 and Happy End.

    • Like 4
  16. I didn't saw that coming; Fallen Kingdom started flat from JW and now is 6% ahead at the same point of release while I2 was 10% behind Minions as of last weekend and now has reduced the gap to a whopping 4%! Both have a shot at $700M+but AMATW, HT3 and Skyscraper may prevent that, upcoming weeks are going to be exciting for sure.

    • Like 2
  17. 50 minutes ago, UserHN said:

    Will the ER be affected by the inevitable win of the far left candidate? I think the stock market doesn't like candidates that are antagonistic towards free market.

    There's a lot of speculation right now about it, don't know how much an eventual victory would affect, although a shake is going to happen. ER is actually recovering this week but that doesn't mean necessarily a sign of July 1st.

  18. 7 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

    Yup, no competition for a while, and the World Cup is not denting the box office... yet. General elections are scheduled for Sunday July 1st, unless there's unrest doubt it'll affect much.

     

    The only "but" are legs, even with a full house they could be anaemic if OW was very front-loaded.

    Looking at 2012's elections weekend i think JW2 and I2 can have relatively good holds, although more adult-skewed titles do can suffer

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