Ms Lady Hawk

So which is it? Is it that they spent too much on marketing (100 mil, which I need to see documented) or that they spent too little? Some people are twisting themselves in knots to make Shazam’s first week look like an underperformance or a failure of some sorts. Maybe it falls off a cliff from here on out, but right now it is all good.

I have never heard or seen anyone call Antman a flop. If they have, then that is just nonsense. It got a sequel which showed the studio was happy with the original. So you think studios should be guided by perception and not dollars and cents? If they spent very little on marketing, it is probably because they felt that they could make the profit they wanted to make without it. The latest Deadline article quoting WB execs reveals their strategy. Hence, the sneak peaks, etc.. There is not a one size fits all formula for every movie. Shazam is fine! It could make 250-300 million and probably be profitable.

Is 400 some magical number? Why does it need to hit that with a 80-100 mil budget? I don’t remember anyone saying that Paramount/Marvel should have pushed Thor over 450M. And that movie had a 150 mil budget. In fact, it was viewed such a success that it got two sequels.

Perhaps the calculation was that Shazam had a better chance of weathering the CM and EG sandwich more than the Lego movie. Dumbo could have also been a consideration for releasing the movies in the way they were released. You cannot have myopic and tunnel vision. You act as if they are evaluation individual movies in a vacuum. The studio must place all (most) of their movies- sometimes years in advance based on the marketplace and space available.

No. In business the calculation is risk v reward. Studios do not go for broke on every project.

Completely disagree. If Shazam had opened in February, you guys would have cried about how WB was so dumb to open a movie so close to CM. The studio made the right call here. They will need to turn their attention to their bigger budget and more high risk releases. This was a nice win for WB. Mostly, it’s people here lamenting about things we can never know. As it is, Shazam will be a money maker. I don’t think Disney was upset with the openings of the original Antman, Captain America or Thor movies. This was a moderate budgeted movie meant to make a profit and not meant to be a huge money maker. Let’s be realistic. Sure, it is always nice to make more money. But to spin Shazam into a what could have been does undermine its performance.

Some of you seem obsessed with perpetuating this narrative that started before the weekend of how EG would destroy Shazam. Some people predicted Shazam would do 40 million or less because of lack of presales due to EG. Shazam is NOT to be compared with EG. WB was never trying to have it compete on that scale. Shazam did wonderfully well this weekend and overperformed for WB based on tracking. End of story. EG and CM didn’t hurt it as much as some of you guys suspected or at all... so maybe it is time to move on. Enjoy the Shazam ride and wait for the EG tsunami. As twomisfits said, the movies can co-exist. I guarantee that there is no crying at WB studios this morning.

What does one have to do with the other? Lol. Gratuitous and unnecessary backhand to Shazam. Us is a hit and Shazam did really well this weekend. Full stop! So what the heck are you saying?

No need to eat crow at all. From the beginning, you read this movie’s performance better than most on this forum. I think you did great. So what if the numbers fell short of 60M exactly. You were close enough.

Shazam is a new release and a family film. It is predicted to drop 33% on Sunday. Dumbo is also a family film in its second week and is expected to drop 30%. If Shazam also drops 30%, then its gross will be 54M. With previews, it would be over 57M.

I don’t know, baumer! Wouldn’t competition be as likely a factor? Halloween 2018 had larger drops in all three of its first weekends. I really liked Us. I thought it was unique and thought provoking. I do understand that It isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.

Why weren’t Rth’s posts pinned? He is definitely more accurate than Deadline.

But we’re not warring. I was simply “marveling” at the fantastic hold predicted for CM and how to me, that leads me to believe that it will eventually pass WW. (412.5 M) WW’s run was the main impetus for me joining this community. No warring or debating DC v Marvel or WW v CM.

I hate to admit it, but it’s looking like CM will pass my beloved Wonder Woman. Still doesn’t take away from what WW accomplished. Considering CM opened 50 million more than it did, I expected it at the beginning. But its drops were always larger than expected for the first couple of weekends. It has stabilized and with Endgame on the horizon, I think it takes it over the top. Amazing! We still need to watch and see, but I would say 80% likely now. CM has been an all around juggernaut.

Hey maybe I am wrong. Strong strong hold by Captain Marvel. Horrible drop for Dumbo and very good start for Shazam! https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-shazam-pet-sematary-1203181688/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Deadline is pulling numbers out of their ass. Let’s wait for Rth. Using their numbers, CM would have to have a better weekend off of itsThursday than its had during any of its weekends. What are they predicting as the Friday number? Maybe it’s an awesome Endgame bump, so I guess possible! Dumbo would only increase by a little over 100% on Friday? For a children’s movie that is insanely low.

You were spot on. Thank you!

Can we be a bit more dubious of Deadline’s preview numbers? Their record lately has been....shall we say? Hmmm! Lacking?

You may be on to something. I was wondering what happened because some of the shows picked up significantly as I am scanning the AMC app. I don’t know it it’s walk ups. Maybe it might be that deal. The earlier shows didn’t do too hot, but the evening shows look promising in NYC and surrounding areas. Would you happen to know how the 3.3 million already earned will count toward the weekend? Will they just add it to the total?

Shazam! (4,260 theaters) - $48.0 M Pet Sematary (3,585 theaters) - $30.0 M Dumbo (4,259 theaters) - $21.6 M Us (3,512 theaters) - $16.6 M Captain Marvel (3,573 theaters) - $10.1 M The Best of Enemies (1,705 theaters) - $5.0 M Unplanned (1,516 theaters) - $4.7 M Five Feet Apart - $3.4 M Wonder Park (2,281 theaters) - $2.4 M How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World(1,922 theaters) - $2.2 M BOM Predictions. They are high on Pet Cemetery.

Agreed! Shazam may not reap the benefits of the 94% rating, but the DC brand will. The brand is slowly recovering from its shaky start. So in the long run, the movie may serve a larger purpose for the brand than it did for itself, especially if it does decent for its budget.

Thank you for the explanation, Barnack! Mendelson wrote an article a while back wherein he argued that domestic gross is still preferred by studios. With your explanation above, the article makes even more sense.

Thank you. I am still learning how this box office thing works. Unless the movie completely bombs, it looks like it was a reasonable risk/reward for WB.

Variety is a good source. I think I read from one of Scott Mendelson’s articles that studios take in ~55% of the domestic gross. If that is the case, then Shazam needs about 150 million to break even. The OS and digital sales would be icing on the cake at that point. If the movie can pull that off 150M, then it would be a great investment by WB.

Thank you! But even with JL underperforming, I don’t think the expectation is for Shazam to open anywhere near 94 million. Frankly, I think most people would be happy with half of that. Wonder whether the comps show whether compared to JL or other movies, that can happen? So far, the IMAX showings are good for Shazam’s previews. It’s the other formats that are concerning.