Ms Lady Hawk
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Posts posted by Ms Lady Hawk
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At two most popular AMC theaters in NYC: Lincoln Square and Empire, Shazam is doing fairly well on IMAX and premium screens (1/2 full or better) for tomorrow afternoon/evening. This trend holds true for AMCs across the board in the surrounding areas as well. However it is not selling nearly as well in 3D and digital. We shall see how things play out. I am surprised that Deadline did not release updated tracking this week.
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Yesterday, someone wrote that 63.7 was the peak. For the full 24 hour period (8am - 8am), I guess this would be the high:
2019-04-03 12:00:26.427052 UTC 1 66% Avengers: Endgame 2 8.3% Us 3 7% Dumbo 4 5.6% Captain Marvel 5 1.9% Shazam!
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This movie has as much hype as I could hope for one year before release. I have the feeling that if it can manage a fresh rating (70%+ RT), then it is going to do really well. I am excited by this latest sneak leak. Would love to see it.
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9 minutes ago, Matthew said:
I didn't even talk about Shazam presales today. Wtf are you saying? 🙄🙄🙄
Did I say that you mentioned presales?You mentioned that DC attempted to obstruct CM when you darn well know (or should know) that is not likely. No one in their right minds thought Shazam would ever compete or obstruct CM in any way. Whereas, the Avengers is one of the best franchise films in history. It would crush any movie except maybe Star Wars. That is why studios usually give Marvel (Disney) breathing room in their release dates. Anyway, I don’t know why I wasted my time responding to you. You know what you were trying to do and that is dunk on DC. This is not the thread for that, so I will let members savor what is historic day for presales. Bravo Endgame!
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Can’t we just “marvel” at what Endgame is doing without dunking on DC? Besides, who really thought that Shazam was going to compete with Captain Marvel and Endgame? Seems to me that Matthew borderline trolls at times, so I wouldn’t take him seriously. Come on people! In any case, the AMC app finally appears to be working without glitches. Most showtimes for Thursday previews are at least half full in the NY area and most are “almost full”. It’s possible that the glitches cost AMC some serious cash as other chains like Regal reaped the benefits. This is going to be huge. How huge? Well, we can just sit back and enjoy the ride.
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This is absolutely freaking amazing. Looks
like the only thing that could stop Endgame from making 300+ million OW may be its run time. But may I ask why people rush to buy tickets on the first day? I like seeing movies the first weekend too. But surely, there will be tickets available tomorrow. Why go through the headache of crashing sites and long lines (online)? It’s the same reason that I never understood why people will camp outside of an Apple Store for the latest product. The iPhone or whatever will be there the following day.
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14 minutes ago, LordNox said:
Shazam is selling so badly on presales that it will have minimal impact on Captain Marvel. This is good for Captain Marvel's legs that Shazam is posed for a very weak opening.
You wrote more or less the same thing on the previous page. We get it! You want Shazam to tank. Perhaps, your banning from the tracking thread didn’t get the point across that trolls are not really appreciated here on BOT.
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4 minutes ago, tawasal said:
HG: 408m/152m = 2.68x
CF: 424m/158m = 2.68x
CM: 153m*2.68 = 410m
Even if it had HG legs it won't reach CF's 424m. Even CF's legs translate to the same as HG's.
Catching Fire also had some insanely low Sunday to Monday drops which CM will not see for the duration of its run.
Why the comparison to HG and CF, when they are further away in time and not Superhero movies? Why not use Civil War, which was at over 377 million at same point in time, yet finished at ~408 with “summer” weekdays? If you want to argue good late legs from a SH movie, then as Baumer pointed out the other day, use SM:HC. CM is going to need that type of late legs to reach 415-420... Some incredible legs would get it to 425. Seems lofty.
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Seems everyone has Endgame fever. But had to post.
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Us’ number is actually very good. Deadline said earlier that its Friday was showing 9M. 10.4M puts its Friday increase at over 120% from a Thursday of 4,45M. With RTH’s number of 10.4, it should have a weekend in the mid 30s, which would amount to less than a 50% drop. That would be excellent, especially for a horror. I dok’t get the doom and gloom analysis about it burning off demand.
CM’s number is okay and prettty much what was expected. Dumbo’s number seems underwhelming.
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I mistakenly put the Thursday Us number in the weekend thread. Whoops.
4.5 million for Us.
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There’s no evidence that CM would have done better in the summer. The movie isn’t even finished its run and some of you are making excuses. Excuses aren’t needed, as the movie did just fine. While it is true that summer blockbusters often benefit due to legs, there are plenty of blockbusters that have benefited outside of summer. An argument could be made that CM wouldn’t have held up as well against summer competition and thus not opened as big and possibly not grossing as much as it will gross with its actual release date. There are pros and cons in each direction. BP Is the highest grossing SH film of all time and when was it released? Yeah, February. So no excuses. Let’s see how it goes.
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Good Monday drops may lead to muted Tuesday increases. We shall see!
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5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
Less than 20% Monday to Monday drop...it's too bad so many family movies are opening in the next few weeks b/c this could have been the start to a great leg kick,..
I saw Wonder Park with my son and we enjoyed it. It’s too bad it isn’t doing better at the BO. Anyways, seems like almost everything dropped less that 70%. Wonder why all the good holds?
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This is so great for Us. Can’t wait to see it.
Deadline’s numbers are off for Captain Marvel. I don’t see how 8.5-9 million only gets it to 31.7. Plus, they wrote that she should just make it passed 294 million today. She has at least 286.4 as of today. Now, I am no math wiz; but let’s say they are right and she gets to 294.2 today, then 294.2 - 286.4 equals 7.8. If the estimate is 8.5 - 9, then CM will be at or above 295 at the end of today.
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3 minutes ago, Mulder said:
CM's had good weekdays but just in general, summer weekdays will inflate legs just like December releases tend to have better then usual legs. I don't think comparing a March release's legs to a June release's legs checks out.
Let’s see how it plays out. It probably is going to be a photo finish between the two. I do recall several (maybe not majority) of folks saying that CM was going to crush WW domestically. There were even a few who thought it would make in excess of 500 million. Many thought it would make ~450. So I don’t think they were considering March v Summer. At this point, I think CM is looking at 400-420. But again, we will see. Fun times!
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I see that @Charlie Jatinder didn’t give us the very early estimate today. He often provides us with numbers to play with, which is fun. Thank you, Charlie! I wonder whether he will give us some early Monday estimates tonight or whether we’ll have to wait for the middle of the night. I am done with the weekend. Ready to move on to this week.
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Almost all the movies in the top ten expected drops in the low to mid 30s. Disney for some reason did not account for St. Patrick’s Day. They know what they’re doing over at Disney and if they expected St. Patrick’s Day to affect the box office, they would have accounted for that in their estimate.
Having said all that, the drop is negligible when we’re talking about such huge numbers. Is it really that big of a difference to gross 69.3 v 67.5? Not really.
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Thank goodness they’re getting a new face to direct Suicide Squad, because the one that hit theaters in 2016 was the worse of all the DCEU movies by a mile.
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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
$19-20mn as per early morning readings.
That’s pretty cool, considering that I scanned the AMC app for NYC, and matinees were really slow. HOWEVER, judging by the same app, tomorrow is going to be a fantastic day for CM. There are already sellouts and a few shows nearing sellouts. Therefore, I expect the huge Saturday that Marvel movies usually get. If your 19-20 educated guesstimate is correct, then I can easily see over 70+ for the weekend.
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1 minute ago, Krissykins said:
Hmm, I think CM has the added bonus of being sandwiched between Infinity War and End Game. Plus being their first female lead film. So that theory is out the window.
I agree. Combine that with Marvel/Disney’s great ability to market, and you have what usually amounts to a fantastic outcome. WW had to fight her way up the box office with the quality of her movie and her loyal/nostalgic fans. There was not much else to boost her. Anyway, it’s great that two female superheroes are kicking butt and taking numbers. I know it’s natural to pit them against each other, and it can also be fun. Nevertheless, there are no losers here. WW did her thing when it was her turn and CM is doing hers now.
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Spoiled brat!!! Lol. *just kidding, of course! In any case, when can we expect to see Pet Semetary on Pulse/MT? I have no idea about comps for R-rated movies or horrors.