Ms Lady Hawk
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Posts posted by Ms Lady Hawk
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Just to put things into perspective about how bonkers this movie is doing. WW and CM fans will understand. Both fan groups root(ed)so hard for their movie to reach and surpass 400+. Every week, we hope for good drops, survey the competition and pull up comparable to gauge trends. Here, you have this beast who will pass 400 million by the end of the week. Simply incredible. We must realize that this kind of thing doesn’t happen very often. Maybe once a decade, if that. I cannot get enough of it. I am astonished. All of us movie fans are lucky to be here to witness this.
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Sometimes the numbers pre release really do tell the story. Some members did great work on the forecasting thread. As the numbers came in, they showed us an OW pointing to 315M, 330M, 350M, yet because these were numbers so hard to conceive, many of us understandably doubted. Kudos to those who didn’t. Lo and behold, it really is happening. OMG, this is a box office run for the ages. One to which we will compare other movies who endeavor reaching lofty heights from here on out. Absolutely unreal. There are no superlatives left!
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Awesome! Congratulations to Endgame on the previews record. I think it will stand for a while. Just want to pay some respect to The Force Awakens. It took a behemoth to take it down. But much respect for achieving 57 million before the exponential rise of presales and premium seating. Disney is home to the two most successful movie franchises in history. Now, let’s see if more history can be made with 300M. It is definitely getting the OW record.
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10 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:
There is, the preview data is very restrictive depends on your level of access as to if you see anything and if so what you see (you may only see preview data for a selected criteria). DL do have a source(s) with some level of access(who may not see everything) They were wrong to go with initial 43m though.
Even general access is restrictive, You could have 5 people looking at say AEG Friday data at a given point in time and they may all see a different result depending on level of access(even at the highest summary level) . The distributor of a film sees the most data
Rth, you are invaluable to this forum. Thank you for adding some understanding to how the data works. Basically, Deadline saw an early number based on their access and it was not necessarily accurate. Now, I understand why you do not like to report preview estimates. 👍
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4 minutes ago, Menor said:
I guess that may work, but if they know presales for Thursday then imo that number shouldn't be too far from actuals, since Thursday's are very ps heavy.
Right now we don’t know anything. It would have probably been better if Deadline offered nothing until they had a clearer picture after midnight. They did mention schools being out, so that is why I think their estimate is leaving room open for more walk ups as the night plays out. As I said, who knows though?
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4 minutes ago, Menor said:
Ok yes, but they generally have the very consistent pattern that they give an estimate for the previews. They've never done a "this is how much it's made so far". For this movie, they broke that. There has to be a reason.
Maybe it’s because this movie is unique in that it had the biggest presales of all time AND it is playing around the clock at some theaters. I know that Empire in NY is playing it all night. That is why they are leaving room to grow. They may know the presales but have no idea about walk ups for so many show times. I am not defending Deadline. They are a hot mess some times.
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The number will be much higher. Deadline usually comes in low on preview numbers. I remember their estimate for Shazam! a few week ago was way low. Same thing here. Deadline gonna Deadline. Let’s just wait and see.
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2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:
If Joker can be well reviewed, and Birds of Prey follows suit... this could have a shot at a $200 mil OW.
I actually think it will be more dependent on the reviews than those two movies that precede it. If it is well reviewed and marketed, I too think it will reach 180-200M. Why wouldn’t it, if those factors play out? She has a chance to own the summer.
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3 minutes ago, Wrath said:
Of course! As a final word of advice, feel free to look at what other people have posted (but remember they'll probably edit before the deadline), and beware that it may end up taking longer than you expect to get things sorted out (especially since its your first time). I usually spend at least a few hours working on it, though different people approach it in different ways.
Also, its definitely something you get a feel for as time goes on. The first time I entered, I did pretty well on the weekly stuff and was clinging to a spot in the top 10 before they did the final scoring on the pre-season stuff. I crashed and burned, and think I ended up in like 23rd. But then the next time I understood it all a bit better and came in like 8th or something, and then a year or so after that I finally won one. Have fun, don't get discouraged, and bear in mind that if anyone tells you a particular chunk of points doesn't really matter that they're probably trolling you.
Oh, I really appreciate that. I am competitive, but will take this as a learning experience. By the time a derby roles around again, I will be more solid. I did complete my predictions last night. It took me a while. Overall, I think I may be on the high side of things. We’ll see though. Lol.
But hey, I really really do appreciate the words of advice and the guidance. You’re awesome! 👍
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2 minutes ago, Wrath said:
Welcome! The games are a lot of fun (for the right sort of personality) so I hope you're able to get an entry in before the deadline tonight (just before midnight on Thursday, I'm not entirely sure which timezone. US Pacific, maybe?) in... 14 hours, perhaps.
The biggest source of points are the preseason lists which you do here:
Just copy paste the blank one in the first post for the formatting, then fill it in as best you can. Folks will be posting new entries and editing their numbers until late tonight. The numbers can seem dauntingly large, but you'd be surprised at how close the results can be. A couple years ago, they gave people who helped with the scoring +1 bonus point (out of like 3+ million) and at one point late in the final scoring one of the +1 points actually served as a tie-breaker.
The rest of the game are the weekly questions, the Spur of the Moment (SotM's), and Question of the week. Each individual set of questions isn't worth a ton of points, but they add up over the course of the game. They're in the same area as the Preseason Prediction Thread.
Its kind fun to see how different people are particularly good or bad at different things. Historically, I've done pretty well on the top 15 Domestic chart and the SotM's, but I'm absolute trash at the weekly questions. I'm somehow better at predicting how movies will do ~3 months before they open than I am at predicting it the week they open. I tried just flat-out copying people who were better at it than me, but each week I seemed to randomly pick the person who was about to have a terrible week so even that didn't work. Ah well.
Thank you! I am looking forward to it! Should be fun. Thanks again for taking the time to welcome me and to advise me on how to get started.
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A: Domestic top 15:
1) Avengers- Endgame - 757M
2) The Lion King - 724M
3) Toy Story - 480M
4) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 365
5) Secret Life of Pets- 320M
6) Detective Pikachu- 302M
7) Aladdin- 292M
😎 Godzilla- 287M
9) Men In Black - 275M
10) Fast & The Furious- Hobbs & Shaw- 270M
11) Rocket Man- 240M
12) Dark Phoenix - 235M
13) Dora and The Lost City- 220M
14) New Mutants- 210M
15) Annabelle Comes Home- 147M
Backup 16*) It- Chapter 2- 125M
*Only used if a film above exits the game
B: Top 7 Domestic OW:
1) Avengers Endgame- 279.8M
2) The Lion King- 217M
3) Toy Story 4- 185M
4) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 145M
5) Detectice Pikachu- 85M
6) Secret Life of Pets- 72M
7) Godzilla- 67M
Backup 8*) Hobbs & Shaw- 63.3M
*Only used if a film above exits the game
😄 Worldwide top 12:
1) Avengers Endgame 2.35B
2) The Lion King- 1.57B
3) Toy Story - 1.2B
4) Spider-Man: Far From Home- 950M
5) Godzilla - 877M
6) Fast & Furious- Hobbs and Shaw- 850M
7) Secret Life of Pets- 820M
😎
9) Aladdin - 750M
10) Rocket Man- 735M
11) Men In Black - 720M
12) Dark Phoenix- 470M
Backup 13*) New Mutants- 375M
*Only used if a film above exits the game
😧 TOP 5 Weekends
1) April 26–April 28- 370M
2) July 19- July 31- 320M
3) June 21- June 23- 295M
4) July 13- July 15- 250M
5) June 4- June 6- 230M
6) May 10- May 12- 225M
*Only used if a film above exits the game
E: Multipliers
1) Rocket Man- 5.5
2) Toy Story 4- 4.0
3) The Lion King- 3.8
4) Secret Life of Pets- 3.5
5) Detective Pikachu- 3.35
backup 6*) Dora The Lost City - 3.0
*Only used if a film above exits the game
F: Total Grosses
Top 15 DOM) 5.124B
Top7 OW) 1.263B
Top 12 WW) 11.292B
Top 5 W/E) 919.9M
Average Multi). 4.03
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This will be my first time playing any sort of game. When and where do we put our predictions?
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Seeing all this fantastic buzz and the out of this world numbers for Endgame, I am wondering whether this movie can do 500 million, if it is well reviewed. I would love to see it own the summer. I think it can increase 25% over the first one. But it needs to be well reviewed to really blow up. DC/Warner has been uneven with critics, but recently the trend has been heading in the right direction. I really think if DC/Warner play their cards right, this can be huge. 450-500 million kind of huge. It won’t have the low end opening week as the first movie had and should have a decent multiplier since it has a summer release (maybe 2.6 - 3.0). Super hero movies are here to stay!
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1 minute ago, tawasal said:
I am not comparing either movies quality or expectations. I am just stating that it will be the highest grossing female superhero soon as it passes the WW domestic haul. That wasn't supposed to be as deep as you made it to be.
I’m really not making it deep. You have just mentioned it several times. It seems really important to you. So congratulations. CM will do it!
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37 minutes ago, tawasal said:
So the milestones left now is 700m OS, 1,1bn WW and passing WW domestic haul.
Why is passing WW a milestone as opposed to the other films it will pass? CM did open 50 million higher than WW, it was expected to pass it since the opening weekend. Many people were predicting at least 450 for a finish due to its tie ins with Endgame. Would have been somewhat disappointing for it not to make it to at least a 2.7-2.8 multiplier with all the advantages it had. By advantages, I mean being a good film, being tied to Endgame marketing and releasing just weeks before Endgame.
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DOM: $278,500,000
OS-China: $453,800,000
China- $271,000,000
Global Total: $1,003,300,000
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2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Net profit will be way higher. Just take China ticket fees away and it's going to be higher in revenue as well.
True. But it has to cut both ways. A few people thought that Shazam would be disappointing if it grossed less than 400 million, but that Thor was a success due to its 450 million gross. Many of those people didn’t take into account that Thor had a budget ~50% higher than Shazam. Just would like to see folks make an attempt at objectivity some times. But what fun is that? 😛😛😛
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Congrats to CM on crossing 400 million!
Shazam has a good shot at 400 million final global gross. It probably can do an additional 35 million domestically and 40 million overseas. Plus add about another 10 from Japan.
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13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
It's has a lot of really positive messages for them so props to him. Mine was/is obsessed with Brave which I feel has a lot of positive messages for younger girls/women. She has really taken to the Idea of her fate not being sealed which I'm thankful for.
My son isn’t really into superheroes yet. He likes them, but he is more into cartoon characters. He is still young, so he has time.
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2 hours ago, Krissykins said:
It was his two sons he was talking about actually hehe
We actually do need to have them humanised a bit otherwise there would be no threat and they would be really hard to relate to.
Plus, Steve not believing Diana actually helps the film. We needed that to happen because some of the stuff is so far fetched (as all these films naturally are). So his character helps to reflect the audience. It would be pretty strange if he just believed all the other worldly and weird things she was saying and just went along with it all from the get go!
Yeh “fine” sums up the Captain Marvel character and film for me actually.
So his two sons made him watch the movie “100x”? 😂 I’m sure the number is hyperbole, but conveys that he(they) have watched it a lot. OMG! That is even more great. He is as awesome a dad as he is gorgeous. WW broadening her fan base.
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47 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
I see CM like I did Aquaman. Fun and exciting but lacking depth.
I enjoyed both CM and Aquaman, but I enjoyed CM more out of the two. The acting in Aquaman was bad at times. The visuals were fantastic though. Whereas, I went into CM expecting a pretty dry Brie Larson. But she surprised me. I thought she was charming and even funny at times. And I loved Nick Fury and that cat.
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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:
IMO, lack of character development is one of the things that separates Captain Marvel from Wonder Woman. While I prefer the more upbeat tone, I wish there was more depth to her character. I don't think it would have made any sense for this movie the way it was written, but I would be completely on board with her having a relationship with someone, male or female in the sequel.
I think they could have explored what she left behind on earth more. I know they tried with her best friend and her best friend’s daughter, but it was more to connect her to her past (who she was) rather than for an emotional connection. I do think there are opportunities for CM2. The movie was a crowd pleaser and a lot of times, that is all a movie needs to be to be successful. Not every movie has to be a critical darling. The ones that are usually have that emotional punch also. Superman Returns has great emotion but was not a crowd pleaser, so it under-performed. Just the right mix is what makes a movie timeless. That’s what I wanted to convey. No digs at CM. I enjoyed it. I can’t wait to see more of her story on screen.
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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Found this on Twitter from an account named 143 Cinema. Anyone know anything about this person? Anyways, they have this as the actuals.
#AvengersEndgame
Friday (incl premiers) $156,065,580
Saturday $108,514,994
Sunday $88,436,640
Total domestic gross $353,017,214 and beat the analyst estimates.