Ms Lady Hawk
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Posts posted by Ms Lady Hawk
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25 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:
I was told $22 mil was best case scenario for Shazam.
I hear you, ChipMunky, but we must remember that these are Deadline’s estimates. They could be way off. However, so the news is solid. A 53% drop would be really solid. 25 million would definitely be wonderful and welcome news.
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3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
It droped 42% per complete week, (weekly to weekly) that was what I meant you meant.
Someone told this week is the first week no school / higher school is out, but the past few weeks a few had free days or so. Not sure if that is the case with last Thursday (or Friday), hence my question.
Oh okay. No, I was comparing Thursdays. I should have been clearer. And yes, I hope that it’s true that the box office will see a more robust weekend due to more schools being in this week.
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Just now, terrestrial said:
You are aware about at certain days schools out for some and this week for none?
Beside: 42% is nearer to 40 than to 45, strange way to round down.. 😉
What do you mean? I wrote that it would have about a 40% drop this weekend. I think you misread my post. It dropped about 45% from last Thursday. I believe that is what I posted.
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Captain Marvel dropped almost 45% from last week. Is that considered some sort of phenomenal hold? It is doing great on weekends though. I expect around 7.5-7.8 million. That would be about 40% drop from last week and a good hold. It should be around 385-386 by Sunday.
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2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:
Roi does. For a minor player like mgm it’s good. WB has bigger fish to fry.
Dude, money is money; profit is profit. Whether it’s WB or MGM, they will take it. MGM is far from a small fish. They are a major studio with a historic past.
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1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:
Tbf...MGM vs Warner Brothers isn’t exactly a fair comparison
Does money make distinctions between studios?
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4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
MGM Starts Climb Toward ‘Tomb Raider 2,’ Amy Jump To Write Script https://deadline.com/2019/04/tomb-raider-sequel-mgm-warner-bros-amy-jump-write-script-1202594616/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter …
How appropriate in context of analyzing Shazam! Tomb Raider made 274M WW. It had a budget of 94 million (really close to Shazam!) and it is getting a sequel. Shazam may be at or close to 270M by the end of its second weekend.
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1 minute ago, Nova said:
I just read through this thread. I’m confused. How is Shazam underperforming domestically? It opened a bit higher than projected and is looking at a 55% drop. It’s not under performing nor is it a flop.
Having said that, I think a fair question to ask is what could have WB done differently in terms of either marketing/release date to have their movie make more money similar to what other CBM make now a days. I thought an Ant Man type run would have happened but that’s not looking likely. That doesn’t mean Shazam isn’t doing well or it’s under performing. But I do think a fair question to ask is why didn’t Shazam click the way other CBM have clicked with audiences in the last couple years.
Very fair and reasoned post. No hyperbole or hyperventilating (real or otherwise). You asked a great question. I can venture a guess as to how the movie could have exceeded expectations/current projections. Perhaps, WB could have upped the budget and added a more well known actor/actress to the cast. Perhaps 10 million more may have paid for an actor or actress who had more name recognition. I don’t necessarily mean someone in shazam’s role, but even someone in a support role. Perhaps, they could have introduced the Rock’s character? Who knows? As I previously wrote though, no matter what this movie does financially from here on out, the narrative has been set in the general public that it is a hit; and DC needed the critical acclaim as much as, if not more than an over performance.
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3 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:
Early Marvel movies sure, Shazam is essentially Phase 2 though. It's not really comparable to Ant-Man, it'll end up some 150mil lower in all likelihood.
I don’t think DC is going with Phase designations. Let’s not use Marvel designations for DC films. DC is only 7 films into their universe. Hardly enough for you to draw that conclusion.
Shazam! may end up 150 lower than Antman, but it had about 40 million less in budget. I fear this is turning into a franchise wars thread. Some posters who have been concern trolling are exposing their true intentions/motivations.
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1 minute ago, LordNox said:
Shazam was the first time DC tried doing what Marvel does all the time; Introducing new superheroes and make them instant hits. What Shazam is showing is that at the moment the DCEU is not popular enough for DC to be able to do the same.
The best strategy is probably for DC to milk Batman, Wonder Woman, Aquaman a few years and then when the franchise is more popular introduce the more unknown characters into the universe.
Inaccurate. Shazam is going to perform on par (budget/profit) with the early Marvel intro movies.
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4 minutes ago, Matthew said:
FOR ALL THE PEOPLE SAYING SHAZAM IS DOING GOOD.
MY QUESTION :
IN SEQUEL THEY WANT TO EXPLORE SEVEN WONDERLANDS.. IF MOVIE EARNS LESS THAN 400M, HOW WILL THEY JUSTIFY THIS HEAVY BUDGET.
Ant man 2 saw rise in budget because Ant man made a healthy profit for Marvel.
Thor made about 450M on a budget at least 50% more than Shazam! and it got a sequel. Shazam! doesn’t need 400 million to earn a sequel.
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In the Wednesday thread, I was told to expect higher Friday jumps than normal, because schools were in this week. Maybe Shazam! benefits from that and maybe it doesn’t. I hope Shazam can reach a decent multiplier off its opening week (2.7 -3.0). This DC can’t catch a break narrative is hyperbole beyond belief. Shazam! will make a profit- Also, I could have sworn that Aquaman made over 1B at the box office earlier this year. Did I dream that? 😂
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Saw Shazam! My son loved it. I enjoyed it too. I thought the beginning and middle were very strong. The ending was the weakest part of the movie. It dragged on about 15 minutes too long. I give it a solid 8/10. My DCEU rankings:
1. Wonder Woman
2. Aquaman
3 Shazam!
4. Justice League
5. Man of Steel
6. Batman v Superman
7. Suicide Squad
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55 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Good for CM, not great. Hoping for 8+ weekend getting to around 386.
Always leave open the possibility of being surprised, but off of that Wednesday, 8 million seems unlikely. It could buck the trend and increase tomorrow. Wouldn’t say that can’t happen. But I see it something like this, all things being equal (to past weeks):
Thursday- 895K
Friday- 1.97M (+120)
Saturday- 3.15M (+60)
Sunday- 2.205 (-30)
Total- 7.325M (~ -42% from last week)
The Sunday hold is optimistic as it’s consistently fallen between 32-34%.
Domestic total- ~385..2M.
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Shazam! is performing at expectations. Most people predicted that it would go into its second weekend with about 70 million and that is what it is going to do. A drop of 50%-58% is not unusual. There’s nothing worrisome about the Wednesday number.
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So now all is right with the world. Every movie recovered nicely. I will now prepare myself for tomorrow’s hysteria, when the inevitable drops occur.
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4 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:
Okay, to which Shazam/DC fan are you referring? I didn’t see the person to which you’re referring but I will go back in the thread. I did see one penguin- something or the other talking a lot of smack about the drop and comparing it to MCU films that didn’t drop as hard. He/she inferred that Shazam was doomed because it was not receive a high recommend percentage. I would say that most people were trying to contextualize the drop. There were and few with other motives as @terrestrial pointed out.
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7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
That's inaccurate. The person who was concerned with the 78% drop was not a marvel Stan. Several we're shocked and thought it was dubious that the NCAA championship really affected the numbers. Clearly they we're wrong as every single movie except Unplanned was adversely affected. From the first page I predicted 5+ million a 65% jump for Tuesday.
Okay, to which Shazam/DC fan are you referring? I didn’t see the person to which you’re referring but I will go back in the thread. I did see one penguin- something or the other talking a lot of smack about the drop and comparing it to MCU films that didn’t drop as hard. He/she inferred that Shazam was doomed because it was not well liked. I would say that most people were trying to contextualize the drop. There were and few with other motives as @terrestrial pointed out.
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42 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
A Shazam fan freaked out but many pointed out horror films 70% drop was not normal. Dumbo got slaughtered (no surprise, deserved), and after we saw CMs crap number it died down. Everything did bad except Unplanned which had a horrible weekend anyways.
@Krissykins I don’t think the Shazam fans were mainly the ones freaking out. There was at least one person (perhaps several people) jumping on the fact that Shazam dropped 78% to make the point that it was not well liked/received by GA and that the drop was the beginning of the end. I would assume (not certain) that they were Marvel fans. But there were also several level headed folks (Marvel, DC, etc fans alike) who pointed out the fact that Shazam is a family oriented film and that the NCAA championship game likely contributed to the drop. When other numbers came out, particularly CM’s the thread went mostly dark.... very quiet for the most part.
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Can we all agree now that the basketball championship game had an affect? Nasty drops in the top 5 for everything. These movies will rebound.
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That is a steep drop for Shazam, but Gitesh explains possible causes well. Additionally, if it is truly playing like a family movie, it could have one of (if not) biggest drops in the top ten.
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I absolutely cannot wait to see the Endgame opening week numbers. I think we will all be blown away at the capacity of a movie to make money we never thought was possible. Maybe 300 million is a real possibility, but I won’t jinx it. Definitely looking like IW’a opening week record will be toast by a quite a bit. Maybe 275 is a realistic bet at this point.
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Ahem... relevant to contextualize the discussion of Shazam’s success from WB standpoint. Posted in this thread.
“Jeff Goldstein, distribution chief at Warner Bros., said the studio originally forecast a $40 million opening. “That was the right number for us,” Goldstein said. “That’s what we needed to make money on it.”
Source: AP News
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8 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:
Exactly this.
WB also could have switched Shazam and LEGO 2’s release date. That would’ve given Shazam the ability to get a head of the captain marvel/endgame hurricane.
The hurricane hasn’t hurt their bottom line so far.
Thursday 11 April Shazam! $2.373m | Pet Semat. 1.226 | CM .886 | Dumbo .8806 | US .8606
in Numbers and Data
Posted
According to Deadline’s estimates (take it for what it is at this point), that’s a check on the Friday for Shazam!. We will see what Saturday and Sunday bring. I checked two children’s movies (How to Train Your Dragon and Beauty and The Beast) and apart from one weekend (Beauty and The Beast) neither did what you quoted above during most of their runs. Shazam! seems to be a hybrid between children/superhero movie. If Deadline is correct, the Friday jump will be monstrous.