Ms Lady Hawk
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Posts posted by Ms Lady Hawk
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31 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Plus it was nice to have a hot guy as the love interest eye candy for once.
Chris Pine is so hot in that film.
Exactly! Not only was he smoking, but he was tough, sensitive and principled. And he fell in love with her, but wasn’t dominated by her. Remember the scene when she knocks out the bell tower? When she doesn’t emerge quickly, he falls to his knees in what appears to be agony and the chief pats him on the shoulder. Diana, then appears and everyone claps. Little scenes like that show so much about their relationship.
He was definitely WW’s Lois Lane. So whoever made that analogy was spot on. Superman doesn’t need Lois Lane, he is an all powerful godlike entity; but she helps to humanize him. Likewise, WW doesn’t need Steve Trevor, she is an immortal Demi-goddess, but he anchors her to mankind and its struggles. Through him, she saw the dichotomy of mankind- capable of good and evil. That is why she was able to more easily reject Ares’ philosophy when she was tempted by her anger to destroy the woman she saw as being responsible for Steve’s death.
Now, that clip of Chris Hemsworth was really nice to see. There are many little girls like his daughters. WW has mesmerized and influenced another generation. Captain Marvel will be around for a long time too now. She will soon have the crown for highest grossing female superhero film, but I would be surprised if WW didn’t reclaim that crown in 2020.
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When do we get RT rating for Endgame? This movie will be ratings proof though. It is destined for historical proportions. The hype is real. I snagged tix for 11AM on Friday.
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Just now, CJohn said:
I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.
Everything except CM will probably drop at least 60% next weekend, but they should rebound. I think Endgame hype will end up adding an extra ~20 million to CM’s gross, which it may otherwise not have earned.
For all the angst some purported to have about Shazam, it is doing just fine. It should get to ~150 million.
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5 minutes ago, Alli said:
New Line’s The Curse of La Llorona is eyeing a $9.1M+ Friday for a $19M-$20M opening at 3,372 thaeters while the studio’s Shazam! will settle for second at $15.7M (a 36% dip) at 4,183 off a third Friday of $6.3M and a running total by Sunday of $119.7M . Since Llorona is an R-rated horror, expect this movie to play into the late hours, natch. Llorona cost before P&A a thrifty $9M net in production costs, hence a solid result here. That $9.1M today includes last night’s $2.75M previews.
Llorona‘s Friday bests Escape Room‘s first day plus previews ($7.6M), and it’s just under Pet Sematary‘s $9.9M and right on the money with Lights Out‘s $9.1M.
Disney-Fox’s Breakthrough is seeing an estimated $3.5M today for a 3-day of $10M, and five-day of $13.5M.
Disney will own spots four and six as well respectively with Captain Marvel ($7M, -18% and $398M cume) and Dumbo ($5.9M, -37%, and a $100.3M).
Universal’s Little is seeing a second weekend of$6.8M, -56% for a 10-day of $27.7M in 5th.
Disneynature’s Penguins is eyeing $650K today, $1.77M over FSS and $2.7M over five days.
https://deadline.com/2019/04/the-curse-of-la-llorona-shazam-easter-weekend-box-office-2-1202598869/
Good for COL. Shazam is going to be at around 125 million by the time Endgame comes out. It should end its run at around 150, if it stabilizes after next weekend. Pretty good.
Captain Marvel is rolling along like a juggernaut- fueled by Endgame, of course. Wouldn’t be shocked to see it higher than 7 million.
Little dropped harder than I thought it would.
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Diana is every woman. You can see in her what you want. I have a feeling that WW84 is going to be massive. People fell in love with Diana and Steve’s story. The WW television series also showed Steve as her love interest. Moreover, Diana was the youngest Amazon on the island. She could have presumably been involved with a much older Amazon or maybe she wasn’t. Even if she were, women would have been all she was exposed to. Once she arrived in the “world of men”, she apparently was attracted to a man, who became the love of her life.. There were no relationships with women, even as shown in JL. Therefore, maybe she discovered her sexuality and prefers being a straight woman.
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18 minutes ago, a2k said:
1.8 (-44%)
2.0 (+10%)
...on Wed and Thu would keep Shazam on track for 14-15 3rd weekend.
You might be correct, but judging off historical data for this week, 14-15 million is not happening with a 2 million Thursday. It needs about a 5 million Friday, and Fridays look to be around 80-110% jump from Thursday. Moreover, the jump on Saturday will likely be muted. So maybe 5 + 6 + 4 for 15. Maybe last year was an anomaly, but last year the box office was good for Easter week, but not as weekend loaded as usual for this time of the year.
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Looks like CM will finish with a very respectable 2.7- 2.8 multiplier.
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I don’t think it will do as low as 800K and definitely not 700K. It has a chance to be higher than last week due to the fact that this Monday’s drop will be a lot softer coming off a great weekend. We shall
see!
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Just now, Matthew said:
Last Monday it was at 880K+/-.. Will it increase this week?? You are projecting way higher.
Definitely possible. It had a great weekend. That’s what a 31% drop will do to the trajectory.
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1 minute ago, JB33 said:
Ah, so my bar is set way too low haha. Being in Canada, I'm used to Spring Break being well over by now so I didn't think of that.
Yeah, this week is good for 60/70 Monday drops. If it follows BP, then it will drop about 64% which would be about 915K from 2.53 Sunday.
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7 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Hoping for at least 700K for CM.
Good holds so far across the board. CM should be over/under 900K. It is Spring Break week for a lot of schools.
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17 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Why do people have Monday off? I thought that was next week
I think one of Deadline’s articles said that 24% of K-12 will be off this coming week, as opposed to almost zero last week. On a Thursday, that number balloons to about 79%.
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So what kind of Monday drops are we looking at now that there will be some kids out of school?
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11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
It's internal multi was slightly better than CMs - the difference being the estimated Sunday drop
Shazam - Saturday - +74.4%
CM Saturday - +75.3%
Friday increase was also better for Shazam! +167 v +149.
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5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
And they are forecasting a 34.3% Sunday drop in week with awful competition and much closer to End Game.
That could be because of the huge jumps on prior two days. Maybe law of gravity applies. The bigger the jump, the harder the drop?
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Good for Shazam! Great for CM. Us dropped slightly below 50%. @baumer 😜😜
Hope actuals bear that out as well.
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3 hours ago, ElsaRoc said:
I'm looking at weekly drops, not weekend.
Weekly drops for it:
Mar 8–14 1 $196,895,933 - 4,310 - $45,684 $196,895,933 1 Mar 15–21 1 $89,581,902 -54.5% 4,310 - $20,785 $286,477,835 2 Mar 22–28 2 $46,827,980 -47.7% 4,278 -32 $10,946 $333,305,815 3 Mar 29–Apr 4 3 $28,142,748 -39.9% 3,985 -293 $7,062 $361,451,563 4 Apr 5–11 5 $16,462,018 -41.5% 3,573 -412 $4,607 $377,910,581 5 Weekend drops for it:
Mar 8–10 1 $153,433,423 - 4,310 - $35,599 $153,433,423 1 Mar 15–17 1 $67,988,130 -55.7% 4,310 - $15,775 $264,884,063 2 Mar 22–24 2 $34,271,793 -49.6% 4,278 -32 $8,011 $320,749,628 3 Mar 29–31 3 $20,664,264 -39.7% 3,985 -293 $5,186 $353,970,079 4 Apr 5–7 5 $12,431,803 -39.8% 3,573 -412 $3,479 $373,880,366 5 While they are close, they are not the same, and looking just at weekend tends to obscure about 1/4-1/3 of its total pull. For instance, in this past week, the weekdays were relatively weaker than they had been earlier on. That's probably due to spring break being done, so it could level out, but that still probably means 40%-ish drops, which will probably remain the case until Endgame opens.
April 12-18 - 10m (387)
April 19-24 - 6m (393)
April 25-31 - 6m (399)
May 1-7 - 4m (403)
May 8-14 - 2m (405)
And then a long tail for another 2-3m to get it to 407-408. It's entirely possible, of course, that Endgame is just a small bump and it sees a bigger drop in the following week when all those double features stop.
Thank you, Elsa Roc! By April 18th, isn’t it likely CM would be at 389.5, rather than 387 based on this weekend? That would shift the numbers upward.
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18 minutes ago, a2k said:
CM stabilising compared to JW2 looking at Sunday to Sunday cumes accounting for different release periods.
Days in
ReleaseCM total JW2 total CM-JW2 3 153.43 148.02 5.41 10 264.88 265.70 -0.82 17 320.75 333.39 -12.64 24 353.81 363.98 -10.18 31 373.88 384.16 -10.28 38 386.31 397.51 -11.20
(Have used BoxofficePro's estimate for CM)Current gap would take CM to 406-407. AEG boost though should push it to 410-415 imo.
Thanks for the analysis. Are you accounting for Spring break week? CM should benefit from the week of almost summer like weekdays. It may have enough to catch JW: Fallen Kingdom at 417.
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1 minute ago, AnDr3s said:
WW84 will outgross CM domestic
Someone will come in and say CM2 will outgross WW84. I don’t think CM2 will have a 50 million head start on WW84 though. And I don’t think WW84 will be as leggy as WW. I think that is what made the run so memorable and fun. Anyway, the fact that we can have a discussion about two female superheroes and their movies at this level is really great.
CM is showing some really nice late legs and I think that is exciting her fans on a weekly basis as well. I remember WW fans were so excited as it approached Spider-Man’s box office.
If WW84 is well reviewed and marketed properly, it will have a very nice run. I won’t attempt to make any preliminary predictions until I can get a feel for the movie. Maybe when we see a trailer.
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CM will outgross WW, but with a lot of help from Endgame. Wonder Woman did it unassisted and with the weight of the DC brand at the time. It served as a turning point for DC. Box office grosses are meant to be surpassed. Even the great Raimi Spider-Man movie was eclipsed by BP and WW. Some day, a movie will come along and outgross BP, Infinity War, Avatar, The Force Awakens, etc. That is how things work. Box office runs are entertaining to watch because of benchmarks. No one should lose any sleep over what a movie grosses.
With that said, Shazam! hold is okay. I wish it were better. Very good for CM. Perhaps a good hold for Us too, it it can get to 7 million for the weekend. I think that would be less than 50% drop.
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5 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:
Shazam looking at 23m instead.. After a 6.6m Friday, according to Deadline.
https://deadline.com/2019/04/hellboy-shazam-weekend-box-office-1202594516/
3rd Friday PM update/writethru after midday Friday post: New Line/DC’s Shazam! is staying put in No. 1 with a second weekend of $23.4M(-56%) for a 10-day of $93.1M, however, as far as the weekend’s other franchise, Hellboy from Millennium/Lionsgate, hot isn’t the word to describe that pic’s business, now looking like a 3rd place opening of $12.3M.
Yeah, I was hoping the 25 million would stick. Maybe it will surprise us on Saturday like it did last week. 56% second weekend drop is about the same as CM in its second weekend. It’s a normal drop.
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Game of Thrones is starting this Sunday and it may throw the box office a little bit off.
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2 minutes ago, tawasal said:
Yeah, because most family movies drop less than 30% on sundays.
Okay. No need to go back and forth on this point but you wrote that in order for Shazam! to show it is a family movie, it has to do 180-200% Friday; 70-100% Saturday AND under 30% drop from Saturday to Sunday. Apart from one weekend in Beauty and The Beast’s run, I didn’t see that breakdown as being prevalent. Perhaps it happens here and there during a movie’s run, but it is far from the norm. Doesn’t happen consistently in this day and age. At least not often enough to be any sort of defining criteria.
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Just now, tawasal said:
I was basing my math on the latest Dragon movie's 2nd weekend.
Friday: +214.0% Saturday: +118.9% Sunday: -32.4% Exactly, but respectfully that is not what you wrote. You said UNDER 30% Sunday.
Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Of course, Diana doesn’t need Steve and Clark doesn’t need Lois. However, the best movies/artistic pieces are the ones where human beings (general audience) can relate to the character- whether that be through love or some other emotional connective tissue. Steve and Lois are conduits that allow us to connect to the super beings on screen. When Superman turns back time in defiance of Jor-El to bring Lois back, who didn’t feel his anguish? Emotions elevate art and movie making. You bring up Captain Marvel and I am not taking anything from it, as it is a good movie, but I just do not put it in league with: Superman the movie, Wonder Woman, Black Panther, The Dark Knight, Spider-man and Spider-man 2. In the first Spider-man movie, the connection was to Uncle Ben. In the second, it was to MJ. But unlike WW and Superman, Spider-Man and Batman are already human. They just experienced either a trauma or an extraordinary event that led them to become super heroes. That in and of itself can make the audience take the journey with them.