SnokesLegs

Almost definitely, unless WB secretly likes burning money.

Just seen that Sage is now warning that a second spike in October is “probable” and that they may need to re-close pubs and other hospitality businesses as a trade off in order to get schools back up and running in September. At this point I’d be shocked if No Time To Die remained in its November slot.

I’d bet a large sum of money on them bumping it to that Thanksgiving slot that they accidentally used on social media a few months back. If Tenet underperforms, they aren’t going to be in a hurry to sacrifice their biggest film.

Good luck enforcing that, from my experience a sizeable amount of cinema goers can’t even be trusted to keep their phones in their pocket and stay silent for 90 minutes...as soon as they sit down it’ll be straight off their faces, whether they’re eating/drinking or not.

While I don’t think we’ll see a collapse of this scale, it does kind of introduce the idea that people will avoid a movie In cinemas in the hope that it will underperform and they can see it 17 days later at home. I keep seeing people say this is bad for independent cinemas, but on the contrary I think this might actually end up being beneficial for them, particularly when it comes to getting small/mid budget films faster. Normally the independent cinema I go to has to wait for certain films to finish their run in the bigger chain cinemas, whereas this potentially grants them access to those films 17 days later. Personally, when I go to an independent cinema, nine times out of ten it’s to see an older classic film anyway, so I think they’ll probably survive. I regularly frequent the Prince Charles cinema in London and aside from the odd newer film, they’re mostly reliant on classics, which are generally always well attended. I think It’s the big chains that risk getting screwed over by this, it’ll be interesting to see whether the others follow suit.

Based on what I read on Deadline, it sounds like it’s up to Universal as to which films and how fast they go to PVOD. Bond is very unlikely to be one of the ones that goes to PVOD after 17 days as like you say, it’ll still be making money, it seems like this is more for small or mid budget films that make most of their money in the first couple of weeks and then drop off the radar. So as a purely theoretical example and ignoring the COVID situation, if The Hunt had come out and bombed on opening weekend, it’s likely that Uni would have pushed it to PVOD in 17 days. This is going to be more for films like that rather than their big hitters. I also wouldn’t expect Halloween Kills to go this route next year as it’s likely to still be making money after 17 days, I know it’s a horror film and will die off early in November, but it’s likely to make a fair amount from opening weekend and in the run up to Halloween itself, and they wouldn’t want to hobble it by announcing it’s going to PVOD in November.

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the head offices of Regal and Cinemark right now!

You’d be surprised. All it takes is one infected person to travel from one state into another to sit in a potentially busy theatre and there’s your next outbreak. I know this isn’t a way of thinking that can last forever, but looking at how the US is currently handling it, the risk is currently extremely high. The US should really be waiting until they have it more under control before releasing this or any other film in theatres. 70k+ positive cases and 1000+ deaths per day and rising isn’t the time to release a blockbuster into cinemas.

Yes, I know, I just can’t see them being willing to open it in a handful of states. Plus, if they DO move ahead with that plan, there’s the thing that Tele talks about in terms of potentially spreading the infection as people go from state to state to watch the film. WB clearly haven’t thought this through at all.

I just love how WB/Nolan seems to think that opening one week after international will somehow make a difference. They may as well have just gone day and date September 3rd worldwide for all the difference a week will make. I would hope that they must know that they aren’t really hitting that domestic date and they’re just saying September 3rd to placate domestic exhibitors so that they don’t feel abandoned. If it opens anywhere in the US on that date I’d be very surprised.

Tenet bombs (which is practically a certainty comparative to its budget) and then there’s no new films released until 2021 at the earliest as nobody wants to take a gamble. Yeah, I’d say Tenet being responsible for killing a lot of theatres off is a very real possibility. I know a lot of international markets have handled this a lot better than domestic, but this is a dangerous game WB and Nolan are playing. And that’s before we even get to the reports of “I went to see Tenet and all I got was this stupid COVID-19” as people from states where’s it’s opened encounter people who have travelled from hot spots to see it. I’d still bet on a further delay in some markets, particularly domestic.

So that “unprecedented release strategy” involves opening it...one week later than international? Wow, WB, bravo on the bravery of doing something that Marvel have been doing for years. This is just hilarious at this stage.

I think the UK chains are in for a pretty big shock in terms of how many people are willing to go back to cinemas this side of 2021, the infection rate has actually risen over the last few days according to the Worldometer figures, and today’s death toll was 123, so we’re clearly not out of the woods yet. Releasing Tenet at the end of August in the UK will see it make a fraction of what it would make compared to a later date. Paramount and Universal seem to be the only majors that have accepted this, and I fully expect Bond to delay unless there’s a clear improvement over the next few weeks. I love cinemas, but I’m not risking my health and the health of those around me just for the sake of Cineworld’s bottom line.

Probably means that Bill & Ted 3 will be getting a theatrical release in the UK since WB is distributing it here. It’ll be interesting to see where they schedule it as surely they’d want to avoid putting it up against Tenet if the UK gets that at the end of August.

I’ve been thinking this every single time WB parrots this “tossing out the rule book” phrase. Didn’t they do exactly this kind of thing decades ago? I’m sure the original Star Wars employed a similar sort of roll out, opening small in one city and then moving to another as it gradually goes wider.