Cooper Legion

Would go for more like 370 atm. Morning has been medium. Theoretically cgv % could be pretty high for imax/3d/plf reasons in which case could miss 350 even.

Click through on avatar at the cgv link I posted last page

Consider it told

Auto snapshots would be sick 👀 Between Pepsa Jat and I we usually have coverage for all hours but only for as many days as people retain interest 😂

Yeeeeeeup Avatar 1 had low 80s, surely that should have been the baseline expectation here? (I don’t frequent this thread so I have no idea)

Gotta keep this date as a birthday present to me

Told Jat just yesterday that I thought sat could clear 2x OD. The level of ps backloading here is comparable to F2, though that was a kid animation Th opener so take the comp with a grain of salt. If OD indeed trends to ~400 that will be ~2/3 F2 and I would guess bit under 2/3rd FSS (F2 had 3.83M). Perhaps: 400 330 450 1000 950 // 2.4M, 3.13M still a lot of baseball to be played however

Some links for those new to market (or casual followers (or rusty)): hourly CGV sales for current day are here — https://m.cgv.co.kr/WebAPP/MovieV4/movieList.aspx?iPage=1&Seq=86072&mtype=now&morder=TicketRate&mnowflag=0 (updates ~XX20-XX25) EOD all market figures posted here — https://www.kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findDailyBoxOfficeList.do (updates 0000 but adjusts upward slightly as counts finalize with most of movement by 0100 or so) sheet with historical comparisons, some stats of interest, and (often) hourly/daily projections here — https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit (updates whenever relevant people are conscious and get around to it) Will keep sheet access among small pool for now but feel free to note any relevant values that don’t seem to be getting updated in the thread or in your own records and we can patch them in. If anyone shows a particular passion you can probably get access pretty fast if you want it.

By convention we take final ps as midnight, anything else will be useless for historical comparison. Hourly tracking first data point recorded is 09:20

Ah heck, it’s the first big run I ill be tracking for ages, why not shoot my shot. 400k OD forecast (370-440)

Generally midnights are negligible so it will take ~10 hrs or so. Kaybe first showings happening now as in like, Indonesia midnights?

98k CGV. D1 always the hardest but I would certainly take under on 500k

Yeah China is one of those specific markets where the movie is getting a unique markup that will impact admit appreciably. But it’s also a market with bigger factors in the background right at this moment anyway. Basically while nums here are gravy to me and will take WW-c for serious analysis/comparisons.

Very normal final day in the end. Oddly way over indexed in morning— I think that may have happened some yday as well? Interested to see if it extends to real hourlies trend.

Ehh, not really. Sure Avatwo has extremely inflated prices in some markets which will decrease admits some, but most of increased price is nominal/secular trends. Most of admit drop will simply be from less audience appeal. It’s perfectly natural for sequels — especially to outrageous lightning in a bottle over performers.

Night shift life

Thanos GIFfrom Thanos GIFs $137,373,737

Very strong morning kick, will take over on 900. Will shoot for maybe 525 OD 3.2 wknd but it’s hazy

Still got it 😎

I mean, nominally. AoU’s opening is comfy 250+ modern equivalent, I2 200+, CW 220+ 181.5M is more gotg2/CM/IM1 level — still pretty big, but perhaps not what people think of as “giant comic book style opening?” This is the same token by which DS2/BP2 were pretty big but not really in that A+ tier of openings (let alone s tier record breaker stuff).

Frozen did 13.5 from 10 to 11 and 10 from 11 to midnight on d-2, out of a 150 day. So 11-12 was 1/15 of the day, though that was sun instead of mon. On mon 11-12 was 12.2/205 day, so ~1/17 instead. Say d-2 was ~16.5 from 2230 to 2400 or 11% of day, was maybe 10% of day on d-1 or 11% of 0000 to 2230. So from 124 maybe add another 12-15ish?

Gunn killed MoS2 because he’s a Witcher fan, true 12d

I do think it’s an interesting theoretical question about what to adjust conditional on other variables changing. Concretely, let’s say you expect a movie to do: 30M OW, 150M, 5x legs and then you get some information suggesting it will do 20M OW. You could say: well I was confident this movie would do 5x, guess now we’re looking at 20*5=100 well I was confident this movie would do 150M, guess now we’re looking at 20*7.5=150 Probably most reasonable is a compromise option — “well, my priors of “5x” and “150 total” are incompatible with this new OW, so I’ll adjust both. 20*6.12=122.5 (this is about half change to legs expectations and half to finish expectations).” Or you might say, well actually I feel pretty good about 150m, and about 5x, this new 20M OW data is bupkis and I reject it, still on 30*5=150. Or again, a compromise option — adjust to 22.9*5.72=131M (this too is essentially an equal balancing of changes to the 3 variables). Most realistically, all 3 will change (ow down, legs up, total down) with relative weight depending on the strength of the prior belief in each. I would say that *generally* there tends to be stronger fundamentals reasons to expect a certain multi than a certain OW or total, which leads to a state of affairs where a 10% smaller OW is absorbed into forecasts as nearly a 10% drop in total, and 10% higher OW as 10% higher total. But that is more strongly the case for something like the mcu where there is a lot of historical data on legs (especially conditioned on reception).