Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Last Aug was still a little wonky in various respects, but: Sat Aug 7/Sat Aug 14 Old +40/42 BW +42/47 Snake eyes +52/65 ER2 +29/34 F9 +61/62 BB2 +56/52 Avg +46.7/50.3 150.3/146.7 ~= 2.5% higher Sats Going back to same calendar pre-pandemic: Aug 6 2016/Aug 13 2016 SLOP +43/47 STB +62/61 Lights Out +22/36 Ghostbusters +48/52 Ice Age +45/51 Dory +56/49 Tarzan +46/45 avg +46/48.7 ~2% higher sats
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Seems I play the pessimist this week. Should fail or succeed in spectacular fashion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
So bbb has 119 more tracked theaters. Doesn’t really square with a supposed 550 more overall. Perhaps actual will be 1500ish. BBB has slightly more show/locs but pretty similar. Main issue is summer affecting the IM. -
Very aggressive OWeek estimate.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Do you have eeaao expansion stats on hand (tracked shows/TCs)? -
Pretty well
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I'll go back to making suggestion posts on Mon. Probably would have gone with bodies bodies bodies this weekend but fall is fine too
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My glory days were the NWH-Batman period where literally nothing opened most weekends. Hopefully a return to shit BO will represent a return to derby greatness 😛
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Speaking of rerelease comps, NWH tickets go up tomorrow -
$30,157 of that is people who showed up for Jolie and walked out when they realized she wasn’t in it
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Flip would be under 657M or so. But needed at least 800 to avoid being a disappointment.
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They mean the late sep rerelease, not avatwo. Though in fairness, BP will probably be the next movie to 200M and possibly the next Ow over 50M.
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Adaptations of historical events/figures is the most interesting grey zone for “original.”
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Well personally I am quite Haley with this weekend
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From 12.3 I would take 27.5ish, but expecting more mid 13s. Other ests should rise a bit as well. Solid for pets.
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I had exactly 4.6 previews for derby (31.2 wknd)
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
If we figure 5M previews, perhaps: 5 9.5 10 7.5 IM of 6.5-7ish? Unsure where fri ps are ending but PSm should be good, following tue and Th -
Are we really about to use the pandemic to try to coverup macho’s complete lack of audience appeal? Zaslav was right on the mark with that one.
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Temporal pincer...
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Trolling is the generous explanation for your recent nums in this thread 😛 But I guess I shouldn’t go down that road further, probably better to just put you on ignore if this is how you wanna play things.
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I go off the full history of the mcu, not reacting to NWH specifically. It seems to me like the failure of DS2 and L&T has made most people set their expectations for phase 4&5 too low. Let’s see how the next few shake out
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BW: slightly overpredicted (A-, PA) SC: nailed it, in significant contrast to majority opinions at the time (A) Eternals: moderately overpredicted (B) NWH: slightly underpredicted (A+) DS2: moderately overpredicted (B+) L&T: moderate-severe overpredicted (B+) I’ve noticed recently that people seem to think I always overpredict mcu, but this is not really true? Just getting distracted by the fact that the most recent two (talk about a small sample size) had huge potential but squandered it.
