Planning to do this weekly going forward, maybe get a blog or website or suchnot set up. But for now it’s just a post.
Legion Weekend Forecast
Batman 115-142M (128M)
Uncharted 9.2M
Dog 6M
NWH 4M
Nile 2.25M
Jackass 1.45M
Sing 1.35M
Marry Me 775k
Cyrano 720k
Scream 600k
Studio 666 550k
These all seem to be correct with 2019 atp: http://www.boxofficereport.com/adjustedweekends.html
So with CPI inflation since dec 2019:
Dark Knight- 221
TDKR- 202
BVS- 191
Batman Forever- 121
Batman Returns- 115
Batman- 107
Batman and Robin- 93
Of course, I’ll give my usual Spiel about how atp adjustment underrates old OWs. Maybe stop by with a rank history of Batman OW (and a few DOM/WW ranks) later tonight after my shift.
Most movies add 5x their T-2, which would get Batman to ~12k. NWH just 3x, which would be ~9.9k. I am thinking it will grow about 60% from here (10830), which would put final comps at:
BW 19
SC 19
LTBC 19
nttd 21
Dune 22.2
Et 18.8
NWH 22.5
so we can see that the 4 small marvel movies will basically be in agreement, with nttd about 10% higher and NWH almost 20% higher. I guess I would take about 22 from that final figure, but it also wouldn’t be too surprising to come in 10% higher or lower.
This is not possibly true based on what we can see, somebody got their wires mixed somewhere. Maybe they were told that there were enough presales for a 40M OD to be locked?
No.
Pretty weak PS, but it looks like the case situation is completely out of control right now? I just glanced at it for the first time in months and honestly surprised that this is even coming out instead of being delayed.
This is a good idea actually. If we really want to break OW records we should just pull movies from being available (theater or digital) for like a month after the ow
Agree with the larger point, but this feels a little misleading to me. Technically true, but not really correct in a conceptual sense as it relies on nominal grosses. First movie opened at #10 (modern equivalent 191M) and 3rd movie opened at #5 (modern equivalent 220M). They were out of the gate with a huge bang.