Cooper Legion

Redeeming Love going to romp the derby max. NWH also beating its derby max but by a far more modest %. Let’s see if other movies can do so as well — 355 and KM would not surprise me.

Mcu super bowl commercials: Falcon Winter Solider 2021 Black Widow, D+ sizzle reel 2020 Endgame, CM 2019 Infinity War 2018 Gotg2 2017 CW 2016 AoU 2015 … I don’t think they’ll do a full 2 minute trailer at the Super Bowl of course. Could either: 30 second Thor SB teaser, longer trailer released online same day or next (Valentine’s) — iirc Solo did this Thor gets nothing at SB, tv spot for DS2 no movies promoted at SB at all, 30 second spot for MK (maybe with a smidge of She-Hulk and Ms Marvel)

I don’t think it’s ever been wise financially to pay for a SB ad for an mcu movie, but they’ve done it plenty and I see no reason to assume they’ve wised up since then 🤷‍♂️

Guess this may be bit of a interesting test of legs in some ways, no Xmas stuff

Intuitively I expect a larger Fri Jump actually correlates with a larger Sat jump -- but there are dynamics in both directions so it would be interesting to run an actual analysis and see how it netted out.

Post MLK Sat recent laterun genre comps (I'm noting whether it was a conference championship wknd -- that deflates Sun and arguably shifts a little sun business to Sat, though I personally doubt it has much affect): TFA +93 (champs) RO +103 (champs) TLJ +95 (champs) JWTTJ +95 (champs) AQM +100 (no champs) Bumblebee +115 (no champs) Spiderverse +118 (no champs) TROS +103 (no champs) JTNL +117 (no champs) Serious kid stuff bounces around 200, fairly adult skewing still sees a bounce like 70-90. Should be 90-100ish for NWH, the a drop in the 30s since no champs, this taking out TFA's 6th weekend.

They underestimated the Sat bump actually

Sun should easily be over TFA. Sat &wknd over TFA should be in play as well.

Tfw you decide to shave a couple % at the last minute to be conservative and still end up max on 3 movies

Bet a month of gold on 775+ 🤙 Edit: I'll give you the clean 3x actually

(Not being able to quote archived threads is a hassle 😛 )

About expected tbh based on post MLK Fris. Weekend should be 13.2-14.3 or so off of that, beating Scream. Avatar also a lock at this point.

The super bowl is like 6 hours before Valentine’s Day, it would be a Valentine’s Day drop for a majority of people in the world

The conference championships are often the weekend after MLK, but not always. They are always two weeks before the super bowl, and the distance from MLK to the super bowl can vary. Sometimes MLK weekend itself has the championships, and this year the Superbowl is later in Feb so the championships aren't until next weekend.

Me neither until right now. Alas!

I’d prefer either to WoT’s fate ☠️

From box office mojo.

I think NWH has the largest 6th weekend theater count in history? Previous record near as I can tell was The Grinch (2018) with 3680

With Batman’s runtime they gotta go for those noon previews

Recently it’s been more like 3 weeks out or 4 for especially huge movies, so Batman on the 4th or the 11th should be. We might get something tomorrow about Nile/Marry Me, or next week for Uncharted, but for the most part there hasn’t been much worth doing long range for.

TedLassoTV+

NWH could be 9+ I guess, which at least beats may 14, may 7, April 16, Mar 5. Certainly going to be the doldrums though.

Now that is a full on disaster. Only upcoming movie that can accept below 150 is ant man.

100 is weak 😒

Looks like it’s going over 1M likes I think, would be the second TV trailer over the mark after GoT S8 if so? Hardly the same in 2022 as 2019 and the like:view ratio is going to be waaaaaaaay lower but it’s certainly overindexing my rough expectations.