Cooper Legion

Shang will have plenty of screens to steal from other holdovers. Next weekend we’ll see something like (all numbers rough, don’t @ me with quibbles): Free Guy 13M 3k PTA Candyman 13M 3.7k PTA Paw 6M 1.9k PTA Cruise 4M 1.4K PTA DB2 2.4M 1k PTA Respect 2M 800 PTA TSS 1.5M 600 PTA Protege 1.2M 450 PTA Night House 1M 450 PTA Reminiscence 900k 250 PTA With those bolded in about 10,000 locations between them while pulling putrid putrid occupancies/PSAs. The stuff in the 2M-4M gross range and the 200k-800k gross range won’t exactly be doing hot business either. If anything I expect Free Guy will add some screens next weekend… and keep them on Labor Day despite Shang as just about everything else gets completely kicked to the curb. Looking at past Labor Days I think an increase for Free Guy can be in the cards, though not easy.

Under 12 are exempt from vax passes. If anything that might be one of the demos that benefit more from vax passes because of reassuring overcautious parents.

The week 2 vs week 1 Nielsen drop was -18%, and the week 3 drop was 58%+, for a 65.5%+ Week 1 to week 3 drop. In terms of box office: days 1-3 (true FSS) — 67.2M days 4-10 — 51.2M (-24%) Days 11-17 — 23.2M (-55%, -65.5% vs week 1) In other words, the relatively strong week 2 on Nielsen is generally an artifact of the Mon-Sun analysis week meeting the Fri release pattern. There’s not enough data there, or anywhere else publicly available afaik, to meaningfully test the hypotheses “PA legs were worse vs same vs better than theatrical.” Which is not to say you should assign 33% to each — just, basically, stick to your priors.

@EmpireCity

Free Guy going for a sub 30% SatSun drop in all likelihood.

It means exactly what I think it means!

No IMAX for Candyman, right? I bet free Guy regains them all next weekend.

C'mon guys, Encanto is a theatrical exclusive Thanksgiving release. By Sep 10, the movies over 100M DOM will be: 2 Disney PA 2 dis exclusive 1 uni 1 Paramount 1 WB free streaming And a Disney theatrical releasing in two weeks will be the first post pandemic movie over 200M

Tardy to the party Anyway it wouldn't be that outlandish to get like 19M this weekend and 14M next weekend, let's see.

Wow, 55M dom. This would have been 110-120M perhaps as an exclusive -- important implications for how to think about Shang Chi.

Deadline is too conservative, 18+ easy. Should breeze past 110M

The incredibly well reviewed and hyped movie from the next superstar MCU director -- Bassam Tariq

Free Guy could be the only summer movie to rack up 3 #1s if Candyman comes in on the soft side.

How about JC?

Post is a common prefix from latin, meaning "after."

Tired: Free Guy will be the first post-pandemic wide A+ Wired: Paw Patrol will be the first post-pandemic wide A+

I think it’s safe to assume every MCU movie is a theatrical exclusive unless they ever start having bad ROI. It’s clearly what Kevin prefers and it has worked great financially for over 20 movies now. This thing has a rumored summer 2022 production start, I actually believe we’ll get FF in July, Blade Oct, and this Nov, with DP3 either going 2024 or taking a Fox date as a 6th 2023 release.

Well considering all of the children are unvaccinated I guess we can put to rest Shang-Chi occupancy being too high for delta fears

Somehow I doubt IM1 got an Avengers bump

This feels at odds with the success of Iron Man 1 and The Winter Soldier, but otherwise seems to mostly check out.

It will be a good weekend for Free Guy and Jungle Cruise, also Paw Patrol (vs expectations from a few weeks ago, going to underperform hopes from like 5 days ago). The rest is absolutely carnage, but looks like pretty normal August product doldrums with a dash of streaming. I don’t know that I’d expect these to be much higher with the same release dates and distribution models even if covid had never happened to begin with.

Instead of the pile of cash being too large to count, it was too small to find

Some strong holds today (thanks to Paw and Reminiscence not doing previews). 1 (1) Free Guy 20th Century… $2,583,234 -2% 4,165 $620 $40,022,975 7 2 (2) Jungle Cruise Walt Disney $916,870 -2% -42% 3,900 $235 $86,313,828 21 3 (3) Don’t Breathe 2 Sony Pictures $833,524 -9% 3,005 $277 $14,622,202 7 4 (4) Respect United Artists $665,849 -7% 3,207 $208 $11,968,712 7 - (-) Old Universal $239,935 -14% -37% 2,631 $91 $44,042,650 28 - (-) Black Widow Walt Disney $215,347 -5% -49% 2,060 $105 $179,054,043 42 - (-) The Green Knight A24 $150,312 -7% -48% 1,784 $84 $15,372,131 21 - (-) Stillwater Focus Features $129,750 -13% -47% 2,179 $60 $13,125,325 21 - (-) Escape Room: Tournament o… Sony Pictures $90,603 -4% -25% 776 $117 $24,888,811 35 - (-) Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins Paramount Pi… $60,604 -15% -59% 1,035 $59 $27,829,255 28 - (-) The Boss Baby: Family Bus… Universal $52,490 -23% -46% 1,184 $44 $56,314,165 49 - (-) F9: The Fast Saga Universal $49,205 -16% -47% 1,160 $42 $172,301,435 56

Getting a little on a tangent here for this thread… … the right place to take this to would be my new 100M club, which has very detailed breakdown of what to expect from various days based on calendar and history, summer vs fall considerations, how that feeds into true IM/full IM, etc