Cooper Legion

Mon was able to go a bit over 9m for a 52% drop. Tues PS up by 20% 😁 Also an interesting thing I noticed: Mon D-1 PS were 0.159 Tues D-1 PS 0.181 (+14%) Wed D-1 PS 0.364 (+100% 👀)

Tues PS just passed 1m. I forget exactly what the timeline was for Mon PS, but I think Tues looks pretty good for an increase.

True enough, this should probably be the last I say on the matter. But realistically if I see someone say it could have made a Billie next week, I dunno if I’ll have the discipline to resist 😂

Like, have you *really* thought about the numbers? What is it the supposed to do, 170*3 DOM, +50% from its actual performance in China, +35% OS-C from WW1... and still miss 1B by 20M??? The path simply isn’t there, numerically, and those are the facts. I wouldn’t agree to some “respect differing opinions” stuff if the claim was “WW84 would have hit 2B in a non-covid world” and the 1B claim is nearly as silly with all the information we now have,

Good OW wouldn’t get it close to 1B. I was tentative about this like 5 days ago when we just had OS stuff, but cmon now people, this is just silly at this point. There is no way for a reasonable box office person to look at these numbers, at WW1, and think it would have had any shot at a billie.

I don’t think they would blunt the OW per se, it’s more that the upper end of that range was for if it got actively boosted by really sensational buzz, like a 94% or something where everyone was raving for a week about how it was the new best DCEU movie and beat DC since TDK.

From Deadline today: My expectations for a non covid world are unchanged from my 125-160ish from a year ago, though I think the upper range is less likely with the reviews.

Hems has only had 7 so far, but with at least one more Thor and future cosmic projects he might go for double digits.

Yeah, I was going by an ad hoc mix of scores, legs, and a little OS considerations. Shazam was probably one tier too high.

We have 9 movies now right? Reception is something like: Great — WW, Shazam Good — Aquaman Mixed — BoP, MOS, WW84 Bad to terrible — SS, BvS, JL The whole point of a shared universe is to connect the future films with the quality of the previous one’s in the audiences mind. At this point it’s more of an anchor than a support, I truly think they would be better off cancelling it entirely and starting again with a new universe in a few years based on successful mostly standalone films. Especially since the crossovers are the main point of leverage, and the 2 films with big crossover elements are in the bottom bucket.

I assume Netflix would pay more than 250 for TSS or Matrix. But there is a pretty reasonable correspondence between “market price” and “best film [in terms of financial value],” no? I have not read the specific Grace thread and do not plan to because it’s surely stupid in the particulars.

Deadline had WW1 at just over 250M profit with 660 in rev and 400 in costs. Revenue coming down 25% to 500M would not be that crazy (this would take a less than 25% drop in box office afaik, since home and TV ancillaries are smaller than 2017)? Production budget is up 50M, marketing probably up ~50M, participation’s could be up near 25M if Jenkins and Gadot got that bag... it doesn’t seem all that hard to imagine a slight loss actually. But again, in reality, it’s being deliberately used as a loss leader by AT&T.

Will be kind of bummed if Demon Slayer tops the movies released in 2020 up to Dec 30 and then loses to one from Dec 31 😆

Clearly getting trolled/bombed a bit over there. Even though it was kind of meh, it’s not markedly worse than SS/BvS/JL. Letterboxd is down to 2.8 though. Won’t be shocked if it settles near 2.6 with Hulk and TDW.

We’ll never know for sure, but I think if people are honest with themselves we kind of know that it would likely be under 700M. In reality though, the measure of success will be like, end of Jan paying MAX accounts.

Whether it end more like 19 or more like 21, very strong day. % of gross rose about 200% on Sat, then another 75%+ on Sun. Good occupancy, good Mon PS, let’s see where the day takes us. Mayhave a very nice little period at the CBO here after early Dec sucked, with Shock Wave 2 and Soul into LRF into CNY.

Well, the reception has also been bad in countries where it was theatrical only, so... It has some pros, but you also really feel the runtime more and lack of action. The reception for Soul, released on the same day, also seems like a point against this theory.

Right after seeing 1st one, I thought “eh, that was okay origin story (tone was jarring for me as a minor World War 1 buff, but I liked that they at least gassed that village), but hopefully sequel can do something exciting with character in present day like TWS.” Like a year later it was announced that the 2nd entry would be another prequel and Steve would return, and I was like ... “uh oh.” If WW3 is set in the present and they don’t return Steve again as a crutch, good chance it will be my favorite of the trilogy.

Yeah, everybody loves formulaic JJ. Just look at last Dec!

Way more theaters are open right now than I expected, given the hospitalization, positive %, death, etc numbers. This looks like it will clear 10M anyway, honestly a positive indicator of audience interest in the big screen experience.

So... we’re people supposed to remember everything that happens in the 3rd act? At first I assumed there was just no way they could possible do that, but it seems like some details that suggest they do? Would be an absolutely hilarious lack of care about continuity.

I dunno, I feel like Alan Taylor would be a better fit for that kind of material.

I’d rather not have another Jenkins CBM blockbuster I think, especially MCU. Out of those options though, Superman does feel like by far the best fit. I think she might fit better with the ethos of Star Wars, we’ll see how that goes.

There’s “kids movie” as in aimed at 13-16 year olds and “kids movie” as in aimed at 6-8 year olds. Nothing inherently wrong with either, but pretty different thing.

Very well said.