Cooper Legion

Probably a bad PSA on 24th will lead to more screen loss when Dream of Eternity opens on 25th. Not sure about hitting 1.3x

That would explain a drop, sure. But history says it’s quite unlikely. Also this doesn’t prevent it from getting the FLOP label, just explain why. We don’t know for sure, but seemingly not that much domestically, it was like 8/7th Homecoming admits. Actually the question is how much interest is there in the MCU in Dec 2021 compared to 2019. We don’t know, but no particular reason to assume it will be lower. This is the one possibility that would fully excuse 350 (or even lower). If it’s evident in July-Nov or so that audience habits have permanently changed from covid, all expectations will have to be totally recalibrated and even like 200M could be considered a gangbusters performance in the new paradigm. Hopefully this won’t be the case.

Trust in Feige. This will be the 2nd entry in the “multiverse trilogy,” with DS2 coming 3 months later will already have some marketing. It’s not going to be some Sony-style crammed mess, there is a specific plan here even if we don’t know it just from casting scraps. Also FFH had a huge cliffhanger to be a hook to this movie, neither SMH nor AEG really had a cliffhanger to set up FFH.

If it does less admits than FFH with the Xmas corridor nearly all to itself there will be no word but FLOP

“Teenage boy develops feeling for smart attractive teenage girl he spends time with after previous crush moves away” is not exactly a hard to stomach development... FFH has problems but it makes no sense to consider that as one of them.

51k OD, looks like today will be ~40k from PS. Not too many sales for Friday onward, but not too low either. Going to guess 5-day around 330k.

We’re getting a little off topic here, I probably shouldn’t have responded to ddddeeee’s post since this isn’t really the thread for it anyway. I assume since they haven’t received any discussion that people agree with my 450-550 DOM, 850-1.05 OS ranges for the movie that this thread is about 😁

If the threequel rank improves similar to CA3 from CA2, that would be a WW rank of 4th-5th. Facially implausible. Adjust for ratio of 2nd entry improvement from the first, and a CW style increase would be more like 6th WW. If it improves similar to Thor3 over Thor2 WW, that’s just 19th. But adjust for ratio of 2nd entry improvement again, a Ragnarok style increase would be more like 14th WW. 14th-6th would be 1.33B on the low end, seems quite reasonable to me as long as reception is fine. That would be just an 18% gross increase from FFH. If there is still lingering covid damage in next Xmas obviously throw all this out the window, but if not, being the big winter holiday release for the year is another benefit. Appyling a similar technique for DOM exclusive would say around 14th-17th, 480-530. Passes initial sanity test imo, though bit bullish. For OS, ~22nd-12th for 805-950. So DOM+OS would be 1290-1480 or so, not as crazy on the high end.

Captain America 3 is only 3rd best performing solo WW though. Black Panther getting 9th Worldwide is not quite avengers level either. But IM3 had 2nd largest DOM OW, top 5 OS gross, top 5 WW gross. Truly an Avengers level solo performance. If Spider-man 3 performed at a similar level (not saying it will) and theaters are basically back to normal globally by then (not saying they will be) it would be something like 550 DOM, 1.25B OS

It’s the audience rating system used by CGV, the biggest chain. Our resident South Korea expert @imbruglia prefers it to Naver (the other main SK audience score) for reasons I don’t entirely remember right now but I think involve larger sample size. It’s now down to 80 and if normal patterns play out would soon be in 70s, which is very poor.

Yeesh, Egg starts at 82 in SK. Wasn’t going to be a high $$ market anyway with covid, but another major market with audience reception issues doesn’t bode well.

Theaters don’t care about the number of movies though, they care about the about of $$ they get from customers enticed to return. BW’s OD will be more help to theaters than these 6 movies combined.

Then studios would have to reassess, and I expect more would turn to hybrid releases of some form. That would be bad for theaters, but their fate is being determined by those covid factors much more than studio behavior. 20 Tenets and WW84s releasing this year wouldn’t have saved theatrical. Agreed, pushing the current 2021 schedule out another year would be totally infeasible for both theaters and studios. I mean, sure, they could have — but it’s far from obvious that it would benefit theaters vs moving to 2021 like Dis and Sony. Haha, it’s true. I was already feeling a bit of deja vu with my first response.

The sold greyhound thing definitely makes the “committee to theatrical exclusivity” thing look funny, but I just don’t get the complaint about moving the other movies to next year. That’s literally better for theaters than releasing them this year. Releasing Venom 2 in October or something wouldn’t have helped theaters all that much. Because of the active pandemic in Oct. But releasing it in June 2021 helps bring customers back to theaters and bolsters their recovery. Likewise, WW84 would have been more help to theaters if they had pushed it to this summer vs the current plan.

I don’t think they’ll do it easily either. More like kicking and screaming, on an individual basis, for as few movies as they possible can. Atm I’m think about a dozen stay on the hybrid model when all the dust settles, but if it goes poorly enough in Xmas+2021 Q1 and they see that the recovery is proceeding well could end up in single digits.

WB has already backtracked on some, and more are coming. Dmaned if you do, damned if you don’t... almost like the initial announcement of 17 movies was a huge unforced error.

Gunn coming for that holiday special is basically a sign of war tbh

It was 79 when I commented and I remember it being 89 pretty recently. I haven’t been checking it super obsessively, so the “24 hours or so” was a rough guess. As indicated by the “or so.”

EDITH was just a suspension-of-disbelief breakingly silly McGuffin for me. Tony leaves what amounts to total control over the strongest military force in the world to Peter, with no oversight, minimal instructions, and the ability to send lethal force at a school bus in a misunderstanding or gift it to whoever he feels like in a spur of the moment decision??? When I was watching it I just kept having to repeat to myself “don’t pay attention to how silly this is, don’t pay attention to how silly this is, don’t pay attention to how silly this is” and it was mostly successful, but on further watches I just can’t muster up the energy to overlook it. At least Zendaya got more stuff to do and their relationship was cute. The Berlin illusion sequence also rocks.

Yeah, the first time I watched FFH I was able to ignore a lot of the bad stuff (mostly about the plot being very stupid, the villain’s power’s stretching SoD, and the villain motivation being pretty thin) but it really doesn’t hold up with more distance. Bottom quartile MCU.

Releasing it as hybrid HBOMax with legendary’s blessing wouldn't be good For WB Getting sued into the ground by Legendary wouldn’t be good for WB Having to pay legendary to acquire this at a valuation of 250M wouldn’t be good for WB The best option is the only one I’m pretty sure WB won’t take. Very funny to watch this all play out though.

I was a bit surprised by the 10 pt drop in the past 24 hours or so, but Menor is right about the timeline of things here — there were fewer immediate reviews than usual, so they had a stronger selection effect than usual and some correction was to be expected. We’ve still got like 300 reviews to go, perhaps many of which will come after Xmas, but it will presumably wind up in the certified fresh 75-80% high 6 rating range like BOP and CM. Not amazing, but perfectly fine.

That is exactly what I expected Favreau meant when I saw the collider quote. “Right after” as in “5 years or so after.”

For posterity though, the answers are yes, yes, yes, no. This is frankly pretty obvious and suggestions otherwise come mostly from some kind of fandom bias, misunderstanding of the terms, or pure bad faith.

I had pretty much said my piece, but this seems like a fine general solution when thing get a bit off topic.