Cooper Legion

Less clickbaity version of this post: Both of these movies are pretty far away. Their release plans will be affected by a lot of factors beyond negotiations and director preference that are currently unknown and unknowable, most prominently the course of the virus and BO resurgence.

Once BW opens above 100M, it will be obvious that Dune and M4 don’t need to be 0-day MAX

Yeeup If anyone knows of a counterexample to this being the first certified movie to dip rotten at some point, I would be pretty interested. I guess conversely, have a movie ever been rotten after the first 100 but eventually ended up certified? That seems even less likely since the studios try to get earlier reviews from friendlier sources.

Also twice as long tbf 😛

Feels weird that there’s so little new releases this weekend compared to next weekend. Afraid of ALRF 2nd weekend?

It’s heading for a 9-11x multiplier, already a mini-breakout. But yeah, chance of going really nuts and taking out Tenet look dead.

Yep. Barnack was noting that the legs were very bad so far comparing to Xmas releases on the same calendar (even from this year during the pandemic). What % of that is down to the bad WOM and what % is just it having a normal HBOMax hybrid run is something we won’t really be able to evaluate for a long time if ever.

He was looking at the 10 day cume as a multiple of OW, to compare to WW84.

The HBOMax factor really does explain the big drop, but covid doesn’t imo. Tenet and Croods had good 2nd weekends during the pandemic, lots of movies have been holding well, most movies held well over this very weekend. The absolute gross of the 2nd weekend is absolutely humungously hurt by covid, but so was the OW, so that doesn’t really explain the %.

Overall I really like this post, but the last Jan 1-3 weekend was actually 2016 😛

Hold well? No, I doubt anyone was expecting that. But I don’t think many people were expecting it to hold this poorly either with winter holidays and no competition.

This is probably a big part of the brutal drop, but it’s still correct to observe that it’s a brutal drop.

Email from Disney PR

Confirmed 9 episodes, as I have suspected for quite some time. If they go one per week that will end the weekend before F&WS debuts. However, I’m guessing that the likely structure is 6 half hour more sitcom-y episodes followed by 3 hour long more marvel action-y episodes. I doubt they’ll debut with just 30 minutes of content, so my best guess atm is: Half hour pilot on Jan 15 Half hour 2nd episode the same week, possible also released on the 15th or midweek more like the 18th Half hour ep 3 on Jan 22 one per week from there, concluding March 5 Legends episode with F&WS stuff on March 12 They could also release two episodes a week for each week with the shorter episodes and finish on Feb 19, followed by like... a breather week, a WS Legends episode, and then a Falcon Legends episode. I don’t think they’ll go for that much ~dead space between the two shows though.

Hmm. +32%? Yes, that sounds like a good O/U 👀

Was just thinking about the box office for this and realized that the last time we had this calendar configuration was 2010, and the biggest opener that weekend was Tron Legacy’s 17M. It’s also the only calendar config with Xmas Eve, Xmas, and Boxing Day in the same weekend. Dailies could get a little wild to try to project from.

I doubt Tom and Jerry was either tbh. It’s quite awkward for comparisons how the biggest movie they’re trying this with is also the first and the most pandemic affected.

This could end up looking better or worse once we see more hybrid SVOD runs. It’s possible that they’ll make it up in MAX subs, but the amount needed to break even will be just a bit higher.

Both of these graphs are great.

Oofta. I thought MAX+bad WOM would lead to a bad drop, but that’s a pretty legendary PTA drop for a New year’s weekend on this calendar. WB really screwed this movie with this Xmas hybrid release, and then they went and tried to screw their next 17 before even seeing how it went. I guess the silver lining for them is that they can still try to go back on some of those

Looks like around 24-25 for Soul today. Not really up by much vs last Sun. we’ll see how the next 7 days go but looks like more of a mini-breakout again.

I don’t think they should be on RT either, but the nice thing about averaging like 400 movies is that you get a couple that probably shouldn’t be there in either direction, and quite a few hundred that are basically good faith not-a-political-gimmick reviews of the movie, and it all blends together into the average. The basic pattern of this movie’s reviews are the same as they’ve been for quite some time though: WB was doing mostly digital screenings, and gave screeners to a very friendly group of critics to be able to market with “certified fresh” The first 100 reviews were 87% fresh the next 254 reviews have been literally exactly 50/50 starting with a gap of 74 pos-neg and getting 50% thereafter, a movie will dip below 59.5% around the 390th review Every DCEU movie except MOS and SS has gotten more than 390 total reviews All points to one inevitable conclusion. Of course, there’s not really any objective significance to 59 vs 60, and reviews aren’t super important for one’s own enjoyment of a film or for its success in theaters/MAX. It’s mostly a historical piece of trivia as, afaik, the first certified fresh movie that will dip rotten.

Seems more like proof that you didn’t care about the characters much (which is fine, nobody really did 😛 ). It means that they’re dead, I dunno, seems pretty significant.

Might be a little tough 👀 ☠️

Right, it’s just unusual since his first name and hero name are the same. I don’t really care about this, whatever Feige and Taika do I’m sure I’ll get used to.