Cooper Legion

“Right after” is a bit broad. Maybe season 1 episode 1 will pick up like the night of the emperor’s death, but it will have to move up to the Mandalorian’s time eventually so it can contribute to the “climactic story event.”

I think you might just have a weird idea of character development, or want to have it happen super fast. The main appeal of the cinematic universe is getting to see characters develop over a long timespan.

Jeez, didn’t know you disliked TDK so much

Since maybe around 2008 or so

Yeah, plus Taiwan which actually opened pretty well. Yes, but the drops of ~67% and ~50% are still pretty brutal. Not to mention that as the least covid impacted markets right now, a film’s performance in those regions is of unusual importance. However, this is ultimately a loss leader for Max subs. That’s where WB’s evaluation of its performance will live or die, I guess.

TFA: x2.4 legs TLJ: open down about 50% with 7.9 Maoyan and ~1.5x legs for one third the total WW1: x2.4 legs WW84: open down about 50% with 7.9 Maoyan and ~1.5x legs for one third the total

^^^ We’ll get a bunch of new markets this weekend that will almost assuredly receive it much better than China. That’s probably what it’s better to focus on at this point — especially for people who are really rooting for it.

It’s not like China doesn’t care about emotional substance, they just didn’t think this movie had that either. Which does not tell us much either way about what a bunch of other countries that aren’t China will think.

Oof, what a paragraph.

The OD presales included some fake sales, but they decreased as a % as real sales grew (as normal). Sat and Sun didn’t have fake sales in the first place and had been showing it as near WW84, so with the difference in reception it’s no surprise that the Rescue won handily.

The amount of marketing they’d already spent is literally irrelevant. Textbook sunk cost. Come June this decision from AT&T is going to look extremely stupid.

Looked headed for more of a 200-350 until China collapsed.

Weird take. The Prestige is really bad, maybe his worst.

But... you, ahh... you can, though.

Bolded was just my trademark optimism coming in to play I see. This “covid Xmas” release was really something. I knew it was gonna be rough the second they announced it, but this is something else.

Nah, probably a little knowledge of upcoming piracy and a lotta normal market rejection

I’m afraid you are the one playing stupid here. Nobody is going to extrapolate silly conclusions from markets that are hugely covid impacted. Enjoy your straw man though.

I know the sample sizes are really small, but once WW84 was getting all these Donner comparisons, I think the Maoyan scores of Superman (7.5), Superman II (6.8), and Superman Returns (6.4) probably should have set off some alarm bells

Very well said, each paragraph.

I get that people aren’t going to theaters during the pandemic. I get it very much, I have been super pessimistic about short term prospects for BO all year long, and rightly so. I am still very pessimistic about short- term prospects for BO. But the pandemic isn’t forever. Despite the terrible next 2-3 months we’re likely in for, a rational look at the epidemiology of it all suggests quite clearly that this will be the final big wave because of natural+artificial immunity curves. June will be a completely different ballgame. No one can say for sure how people will act afterwards, but there is a lot of good evidence from history, other countries, and even Americans’ behavior during pandemic that consumer engagement in physical social activities will snap back very robustly, perhaps even with a degree of overcompensation.

Doubt it hits 20M China+Japan this weekend. Overall OS probably more in the ballpark of 35 is my guess.

Yep, that’s me. In fact, we’ve seen from many markets that they can. Theaters just give additional screens to the movie that needs it. That you are unaware of this basic reality makes me very skeptical of the value of further conversation.

Who cares? With decent screen management theaters can earn basically normal grosses with 50% capacity. Depending on the speed of recovery that will be possible everywhere April-June or so. In a well-functioning society, Congress, but that may depend on what goes down on Jan 5. If Congress doesn’t do the right thing (hardly unprecedented) then chains will continue to accumulate debt and try to arrange financing to bridge them through the next couple months. Some of them may fail, in which case they will go bankrupt and the venues will come under new ownership.

That explains being longer than 6 episodes. Probably 12?

The Suicide Squad slot is now open, worked out pretty well for GOtG1. I think if the recovery isn’t looking good in Feb/Mar-ish the logical movie is BW to June and Shang-Chi to August. Honestly though I would pay more attention to the China summer schedule than the domestic one if I was dating this.