Cooper Legion

Into the Unknooooooooown

Harry Potter was so “non-dominant” that at one point it had 5 of the top 15 and 7 of the top 23: 1 Avatar Fox $2,782.3 $760.5 27.3% $2,021.8 72.7% 2009^ 2 Titanic Par. $1,843.2 $600.8 32.6% $1,242.4 67.4% 1997^ 3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,325.7 $379.0 28.6% $946.7 71.4% 2011 4 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $1,119.1 $377.0 33.7% $742.1 66.3% 2003 5 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $1,118.7 $352.0 31.5% $766.7 68.5% 2011 6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 $423.3 39.7% $642.9 60.3% 2006 7 Toy Story 3 BV $1,063.2 $415.0 39.0% $648.2 61.0% 2010 8 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,039.6 $241.1 23.2% $798.5 76.8% 2011 9 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,024.3 $334.2 32.6% $690.1 67.4% 2010 10 The Dark Knight WB $1,001.9 $533.3 53.2% $468.6 46.8% 2008 11 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $974.8 $317.6 32.6% $657.2 67.4% 2001 12 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $963.4 $309.4 32.1% $654.0 67.9% 2007 13 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB $955.4 $295.0 30.9% $660.4 69.1% 2010 14 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix WB $939.9 $292.0 31.1% $647.9 68.9% 2007 15 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $934.4 $302.0 32.3% $632.5 67.7% 2009 16 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $925.3 $341.8 36.9% $583.5 63.1% 2002^ 17 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $924.3 $431.1 46.6% $493.2 53.4% 1999^ 18 Shrek 2 DW $919.8 $441.2 48.0% $478.6 52.0% 2004 19 Jurassic Park Uni. $914.7 $357.1 39.0% $557.6 61.0% 1993 20 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $896.9 $290.0 32.3% $606.9 67.7% 2005 21 Spider-Man 3 Sony $890.9 $336.5 37.8% $554.3 62.2% 2007 22 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs Fox $886.7 $196.6 22.2% $690.1 77.8% 2009 23 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets WB $879.0 $262.0 29.8% $617.0 70.2% 2002 On,y this year did the MCU was achieve a higher level of dominance with 5/11 and 8/24: But still that is 35% of films from the franchise in the top 25. HP had 87.5%. A consistency of success that we will never see matched imo.

Yeah, with a Wed Christmas as Day 6, anything below RO legs reflects kind of bad WOM imo. But that’s a continuum, not a binary — obviously the better the legs end up, the better that is.

29 would be a Mon drop almost exactly mirroring Smaug from the most recent year with the same calendar. Dropped 33% on Eve Tuesday, so I would consider TROS doing well to do 20+

Top 5 WW 😎

“Wow, 1.5M above estimates. At least Sunday is over performing”

Trade them for Spidey

Having to resort to a one hour interval from Atom is a sure sing that a movie is preselling worse than expected. That was mostly viewed as a negative indicator.

It’s factually correct and very relevant to the comment it was posted in response to...

Very easy to call 490 a disaster, since it would be. If this can leg out to over TLK that saves some face but still indicates some big issues.

I’m thinking maybe -7% today adds 560k to est, collect a bit from an upward Friday revision and net ~600k overall=4.9% Frozen is a great fit for winter with all the snowy vibes, and I think a decent amount of family holiday viewing will be diverted from TROS to (mainly) Frozen and Jumanji.

I think we’ve seen that smaller entries done right can bolster big entries rather than deflating interest in them. But the spinoffs didn’t really support or lead into the Saga films, and in retrospect that seems like a mistake. Also, I think the way Disney handled the EU was a big mistake. It was gnarled and tangled and self-contradictory in parts, so I think severing it from canon like they did was pretty necessary. But it’s also a rich resource of many different types of stories that have been told in the SW universe and data on which of them worked poorly/alright/great. I think mining them more directly for inspiration and doing loose adaptations (the way CBMs treat their comic canon) would have been — and will be, for Disney SW Phase 2,3, etc — a good idea to appeal to hardcore fans and more casual audience.

WWW imo is pretty simple: 1) They made 3 movies, instead of a trilogy 2) they weren’t able to correctly balance nostalgic elements with fresh elements that appeal to newer markets and demos. Now to be fair, 2) is very tough. But I think there were several unforced errors there since the acquisition. And 1) was a huge, totally unnecessary blunder that seemed like a blunder to many people as early as 2015/16/whenever they made clear that there was no strong overarching vision for the ST.

Pack it up boys, case closed.

Weekend actual being about 5% above estimates should help. And having a roughly 9x multiplier from the pre-Christmas weekend is actually very typical for Disney animated fare. 475-490 or so for me.

And 1.5B Jan 2020 will get you as good a finish as $928M Jan 2010 or $650M Jan 2000.

I just checked, and in fact 1B in Jan 2020 will get you about as good a finish as $630M in Jan 2010, or $360M in Jan 2000.

I’ll just say it. We’re about to enter the 2020s. 1B won’t even guarantee you top 45 WW. It’s no longer a guarantee of a truly notable success anymore, just being among the larger several movies of a certain year. 1.5B is the 1B for the new decade.

I can’t react anymore because I’ve been reduced back to peasant status, but everyone imagine a on your posts.

I think PS are helped by Christmas here and it will flame out with like 75 Egg and an awful PS:USD total ratio with $18 or something. But, ya never know. Maybe they will really like hideous, horny, feline version of the cast and it will do $50 with a 95 egg 🤷‍♂️

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $5,836,911 ($18,195,218) 769,014 (2,450,805) 1,936 55.79% 2 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $2,042,925 ($8,283,371) 267,164 (1,136,724) 993 19.52% 3 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,010,283 ($91,599,397) 136,011 (12,737,527) 855 9.65% 4 Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $930,002 ($2,170,938) 134,659 (315,934) 841 8.89% 5 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $223,564 ($8,072,962) 28,588 (1,066,052) 276 2.13% 6 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $184,579 ($7,368,003) 25,032 (1,025,645) 386 1.76% 7 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $113,467 ($4,076,406) 14,288 (560,808) 163 1.08% Ashfall had a pretty nice weekend trajectory, and is up to 89% Egg. It’ll do nicer over the holiday stretch than I was thinking on OD. CGV PS for F2 are 8418. First day with schools off so not sure exactly how it will play, but thinking 70kish. Cats D-01 215k PS

I mean, most people aren’t huge SW fans, right? They’re casual fans, and that’s the sort of person who might go from “oh a new Star Wars this month, those are fun, guess I’ll go see it with the fam.” to “another Star Wars this month? The last one was kind of a mess and trying to talk to people about it nowadays is awful, let’s just see Jumanji or Frozen for the holidays.”

Yeah, I mean I’m an MCU fanboy but 80% is... pretty ambitious. Also gotta deal with JW3. I think the more reasonable hope is to get a top 5 with Avatar, Spidey, Thor, and then have one of DS2 or Shang-Chi spike over Batman/JW3. Shang-Chi only has a chance if China takes to it very well, which is a big ask.

Well, it’s less than a third of the WW opening record, unclear if that really qualifies as big tbh. Deadline was all “no 2020 movie will have a higher WW open” but I’m thinking 4-5 get there (MCU, WW84, Car Wars, Mulan).

Marvel fans have been given a dozen fanpleasing hits in a row, probably soon to be a dozen and a half. That much goodwill takes more than a single misstep to destroy. I’m pretty confident that when there is finally a seriously disliked MCU movie, the main reaction will be “ 🤷‍♂️, this sucks, but I guess it was bound to happen eventually.” If a 2nd happens in a short timespan, the internet could become a really ugly place.