Cooper Legion

Can’t imagine Frozen flat. Only explanation for the difference Vs previous Eves if that does happen would be people who got in the habit of going on Tuesdays and just sort of keep it up despite the lack of a discount. Since I expect sub 4 for F2, also expecting sub 20 for TROS. Cmon America, surprise me with your walkups 😛

Yeah, probably. I’m thinking 30s for Start-up. Forbidden Dream has D-01 PS of 56k, so it would need to get like a 98 Egg and have a pure legs run off the low opening it’ll get. That said, Ashfall has been having a beastly run, I think it’s got at least a decent chance of being the 6th 10M+ movie from 2019. Cats reception quickly turned as awful as I speculated yesterday after the first couple hundred were surprisingly decent. Watching it fall off quickly should be fun, and good news for F2. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $3,384,554 ($23,562,790) 483,780 (3,227,143) 1,638 49.9% 2 Cats U.S.,U.K. Dec 24, 2019 $1,327,600 ($1,345,169) 184,478 (186,753) 1,135 19.57% 3 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $1,141,883 ($10,211,696) 163,105 (1,414,680) 884 16.83% 4 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $455,104 ($92,188,635) 65,191 (12,857,140) 655 6.71% 5 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $91,846 ($8,270,681) 12,727 (1,096,750) 139 1.35% 6 The Haunted House: The Sky Ghost VS Jormungandr South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $75,618 ($2,315,382) 11,697 (339,345) 522 1.11% 7 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $78,841 ($4,223,163) 10,826 (582,528) 124 1.16% 8 The Snow Queen: Mirrorlands Russia Dec 24, 2019 $55,802 ($70,138) 9,098 (11,140) 415 0.82% 9 The Queen's Corgi Belgium Dec 24, 2019 $43,363 ($61,417) 7,641 (10,964) 358 0.63% 10 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $27,583 ($7,444,821) 4,754 (1,041,001) 105 0.4% Frozen got about 66k today — I was worried that the night might be weaker on Christmas Eve, but it was actually unusually strong. Next two days should bring big numbers. Christmas CGV PS are 50k, and we should see another big PSm drop. My best guess is 150k, but take that a very rough #

Of course TROS will have a better multiplier. Menor literally just said that. There will be no way to tell how much is reception vs calendar, but I tend to agree with them that reception is actually a bit worse than TLJ, and I think your personal dislike for that movie may be clouding your judgement.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-12-23/?ref_=bo_rl_table_32

$200M is a nice amount to make on Sat+Sun, needing more than 48 hours for it is kind of a bummer

Just say some number from aether and be off by 15% when you wake up. That’s what I’ve been doing in Korea

Maybe just 62k today, same weekly % drop as yesterday of about 35%. Vs last week F2 is dealing with a lot of new business though. Last time we had this calendar I think they just had a Cultire Day Christmas, where this year Culture Day was pushed back a day to the 26th. So not sure how the 25th will play. Cats has an 86% Egg right now. Kind of bad but definitely not a disaster. It’s gonna make some legit money over here

Pretty solid/expected for all 3 imo. I was slow on my weekly recap again so I guess Monday is the place to put it. Need to get back in the habit of prewriting these on Sunday.

The way DOM goes Eve will drop for sure, probably in the 30%s. Christmas Day should bump back up but probably not reach Monday.

Haha, from my experience with SK Monday I was thinking that an F2 bump of the size mentioned this morning was too good to be true. Flat is great. SW number is fine but at -29% or so not a notable hold with this calendar.

Making the equivalent of 850M in 2019 does mean that a movie was not a BIG hit. The MCU has plenty of successful movies that I wouldn’t put in that category, but HP doesn’t have any. Acting like any of its movies performed in line with what 850M means nowadays is a disservice to them. They were all legit huge smashes comparable to 1.1B+ today, and I still don’t really understand what your problem is with talking about them that way.

Just because people realize by week of release that a movie is going to disappoint, doesn’t mean it isn’t disappointing...

Doing 1B in 2019 conditions is a pretty mild/generous bar for something being a big hit, don’t see why we wouldn’t use it.

Final verdict: Ties RO at 12th

No discounts over Christmas break. Tuesdays should resemble Tuesdays of old.

There are several markets where TROS would be nothing more than a bug on F2’s windshield. F2’s most important market the best date of March would be more separated from TROS than day and date. I think it just reflects a broader trend of trying to sync up release dates because of global social media.

@keysersoze123 Got the Friday adjustment right but was slightly underoptimistic on Sun

Substantial % increase 🥰

For BO it wasn’t optimal, but I bet e.g. Japanese fans are happy they don’t have to wait an extra 4 months.

Well, I’ll certainly agree that an expected daily number shouldn’t cause any range updates, but I think someone could have been reasonably concerned from TROS’s weekend behavior and combination of audience metrics that it would do more like a 26-28 Monday, which is hardly out of historical bounds. I mean, it still could if the PSm ends up a bit on the low side (F2 Mon projection feels a bit too good to be true, so I can’t help but wonder if all the PSm’s he used will be a skosh too high). And I think given O/U 550 with a 26 Mon, I’d go under.

I would call Jat’s 550-600 or so from after seeing Mon PS very realistic.

Ugh, that’s right, we’re in a 17 day estimate corridor

I think it can just barely make it, but it’ll really all come down to how many people show up over these next two inflated weeks.

8/8 films doing easily over a billion in current market.

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $1,905,659 ($20,130,113) 276,931 (2,736,751) 1,849 54.6% 2 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $749,978 ($9,047,693) 107,484 (1,248,499) 1,025 21.48% 3 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $362,811 ($91,731,098) 53,242 (12,791,354) 787 10.39% 4 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $118,725 ($8,175,445) 16,817 (1,083,441) 329 3.4% 5 The Haunted House: The Sky Ghost VS Jormungandr South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $74,887 ($2,239,816) 11,815 (327,658) 559 2.14% 6 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $74,672 ($4,142,245) 10,382 (571,387) 190 2.13% 7 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $65,843 ($7,416,235) 10,272 (1,036,089) 431 1.88% I was way off today 😅 But that was a known risk since I don’t have any break days to compare to. F2’s revenue share is a bit up and it held fine looking at the last Mon 23rd, in 2013. That Tues 24 saw The Suspect open with about 330k, and with Cats at a final KOBIS number of 311k it might head for around there. The holdovers varied from 25% daily drops to 100% daily bumps, and with F2 CGV PS at 15k (up 78% from yesterday) I think it will have a nice Eve performance. Around 72k if I had to guess, but this is another day with high variance. A couple other movies are opening today, The Queen’s Corgi and Snow Queen:The Mirrorlands. Both are 24k final PS and shouldn’t really affect anything. Forbidden Dream is up to D-02 33k, looking fairly small as well.