Cooper Legion

I am on the case. Watch this spot.

Expecting 936M DOM would be crazy, but expecting 2B WW would have been about right imo. Episode 1 became #2 WW after all.

Christmas actuals? What sorcery is this?

600??? That is asking a lot. I think 560+540 for now, considering the 3 markets left will be goof for less than 10M probably.

depends how much it crosses by. 1148 end of Wed and things look rather better

Yes, they’ve both got a display error on Tuesday at the moment (though the “error” is counting money made on Tuesday toward Tuesday...). It should end up as just a couple dozen thousand dollars. 56k is my guess.

From the depths of the archives I summon thee. Riiiiiise, Riiiiiise my minion. Anyway, this is very small sample and a bit of an obviously skewed population, but seem good nonetheless:

If Jat gave a number 20% off so late, that would actually be a big discrepancy that I would want to know what happened. There is no discrepancy here. There is a spectacular Jat number and you being an utter fool about preview grosses.

You’re just making a clown of yourself. L2subtract

30 Thurs leads somewhat optimistically to 84 Wknd, 196M mon-sun week. Give it a medium 2x weekly multi, and it’s a nice 569M Pessimistic 81 wknd, 1.9x weekly multi for 543M. Optimistic 86 wknd, 2.15 mult for 600.

Wow, huge hike in CGV ratio today, north of 57%. I guess we’re getting into numbers similar to Aladdin’s late run now, I should start looking at that as a guide. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $1,904,925 ($32,667,130) 360,398 (4,538,531) 1,394 43.41% 2 Forbidden Dream South Korea Dec 26, 2019 $749,362 ($823,184) 145,695 (160,119) 1,176 17.07% 3 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $642,318 ($13,082,701) 119,152 (1,826,830) 887 14.63% 4 Cats U.S.,U.K. Dec 24, 2019 $434,835 ($4,189,290) 83,994 (585,750) 873 9.9% 5 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $287,277 ($93,894,853) 47,961 (13,073,791) 528 6.54% 6 The Haunted House: The Sky Ghost VS Jormungandr South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $95,831 ($3,418,033) 16,746 (501,592) 432 2.18% Clearly this was a Culture Day after all, as it looks like most movies will drop a large % Friday and be way way way down from Christmas. Hoping that the 25th+26th are deflating today and we see some nice Sat bumps. CGV PS of just 7906 means a day around 32k or so probably.

Last 2013, live-action movies in the Thursday top 8 had Thurs:wknd multiples of 2.67-2.94. American Hustle 2.94, Saving Mr. Banks 2.88, other 5 2.67-2.76x No discernible correlation to Thursday daily change. Using 28 for TROS and x2.75, I get about 77. That’s why people would probably like to see a much larger Thursday. Using Smaug’s ratio from Wed+Thurs would be more like 88M with a 28 Thurs. So gun to my head I’d probably go 84ish right now.

To the extent that there’s any discernible trend to Boxing Day gross, it seems to me to be that movies in their first week do worse, which makes intuitive sense. 27.5 seems very reasonable to me, would point to sub 90 wknd.

Song impact: F1>Aladdin>F2 movie impact: F1>F2>Aladdin F1 establishes the entire beloved franchise. F2 is a fun watch and does some fun things with characters and worldbuilding, but if it didn’t exist or was 100% different that would work fine. Frozen’s simplicity works for it, not against it. All it needs to be better than F2 (and most movies this decade) is the Elsa/Anna relationship, ice superpowers, villain twist, and feel-don’t-conceal Aesop.

It’s with walkups estimated of course. Could be better, could be worse. J2 -11%, Aquaman -23%

Jumanji, Frozen, and Knives Out though

Cats is down to a perversely impressive 68% Egg. It may see a spectacular drop in revenue of near 80% daily if today has a typical Culture Day ATP drop. Forbidden Dreams begins at a solid 94% however, which means might be seeing it and Ashfall in the top 2 for quite a while. Still a small sample size there. That is the last of the December local competition, and each of the 4 ODs has had some impact of Frozen but overall I feel it’s weathered them quite decently and is on track for the main milestones people are still hoping for. Midday update 58k, +8% weekly.

Going with 34 today, 31 tomorrow for 65 W+Thurs, Smaug did 19.8M for a 29M weekend, so maybe 95 weekend for 208M Mon-Sun week/385M cume. Multipliers from Dec 23-29 (bit of an unorthodox period to take a multiplier from, but it will always have Eve, Xmas, Boxing Day, and one of each weekday so seems decent enough): Aquaman 2.37x -> 670M TLJ 1.84x -> 560M RO 2.02x -> 597M TFA 2.22x -> 639M BotFA 2.03x -> 599M DoS 2.11x -> 616M AUJ 2.22x-> 639M ... F1 3.72x -> 950M Personal guess atm: 205M Mon-Sun week, x1.95, 577M.

Some of those deadline numbers are especially Deadline-ish. Implied -56% Thurs for KO 🤔

Looks like a typo on F2 Wed from Deadline. Otherwise they’re expecting +43% Thursday.

If Uncharted can’t hit the date, would be fun for Disney to swap Eternals and WSS.

I think JB33 was assuming a standard Friday open. All Dec 18 Fri openers get to enjoy that schedule, but only available in 14% of years or so.

Good to know. I’ll give my 2¢ from the peanut gallery after each month is over with. January 2¢: no1curr

The F2 number would be a slightly better % of last weekend than F1 had. Much better vs Mon too. Just looks like a small jump since Eve was good. Now Jumanji/KO had great Eves and great Christmases, so who knows what’s going on there beside pleasing crowds very well. I was going to be pretty impressed if 35 hampered honestly, 33 is still perfectly solid.

Arithmetic is hard today. Correction: 109 2nd weekend (same multiplier from Wed only) 670 finish (Same multiplier form Sun-Wed period to stabilize things a bit more) I don’t think it’s going to follow Smaug from here. In particular the 40M Thursday looks really ambitious, FSS bumps seem reasonable enough.