Cooper Legion

A bit tough with missing OS dailies. By Sunday I think it will have added about 43 OS, ~634 cume. DOM maybe ~351, for 985 WW. Leave it 15M away with about 40% of recent gross coming from DOM. So then it should cross when it makes around 6M more DOM -> next Thurs or Fri, April 4/5. Maybe a couple days faster with good holds, very little chance to take until April 6 imo. Add about 115 after that, current guess.

Yeah, Gotg2 wins week 4 for sure, also week 5 I think. CM would need to hope to creep back ahead on weeks 7,8,9ish, but won’t be easy.

I agree that sequels to breakout hits are often burdened with unfair expectations and then viewed in a worse light than hah their objective performance warrants. Still, I think a lot of people where thinking “oh, well, to be fair, F7 was higher than usual, maybe it’ll drop like 20%.” And then it did drop 20%, so the reaction was “yep, like I thought, thar’a not super interesting so let’s talk about a movie that performed very different than my expectations instead.” Whereas with AQM expectation were more like 500-800, and for CM like 700-900. If e.g. Endgame does only 1.6B (#6 all time) it’s going to get savaged on these boards for underperforming. In other words, I agree there’s a lot of questionable reception to huge movies that happens. And some of it is certainly driven by franchise biases, yeah. But I think a larger driver is the expectations game.

With around 5M W+Th, CM 3rd week will be basically the same as GotG2, which added 76M after (would get CM to ~409). CM falling faster, but might change late with Endgame

When a movie reaches 1B while falling from its predecessor, it’s just not the same for many people. If CM2 does 1.05 it will be met somewhere between “eh, so so” and “that’s too bad” despite still being a good number for a solo SH movie in a vacuum.

It doesn’t matter what F&F 1-6 did. F8 was a direct sequel to a movie that made closer to 2B than 1B. Without commenting on whether I personally agree, its 1.2B was met with a shrug for the same reason people were underwhelmed by TLJ, JWFK, and even AoU. It’s in a completely different category of expectations than CM, so obviously it got a completely different sort of response. I guarantee that if BP2 makes 1.15 it will be treated more like F8 than CM.

It’s almost like the expectation for a sequel to a 1.5B movie are different than the expectations for a first entry...

Nice Tuesday for CM

We’re late enough in the Os run that I don’t expect to get official updates except on Thursday, and Sundays for the most part.

I thought it was pretty non-controversial that summer helped legs, just like Christmas? I think @MagnarTheGreat has a great little chart of legs by month that bears this out.

Honestly it will probably do at least 3 Billie in China

So many people saw this thing that you’ll obviously have many, many, women who didn’t like it, and many, many men who absolutely loved it. But the data is quite clear that there is a gap in average reception.

Hoping 4.1+ Tuesday, but anything above 4 would be chill

Also the CM number is a bit below I would have liked given the break but overall it will still have a 45M+ 3rd week, 400+, ~1.1B, etc. No need to overanalyze the 18th day

Gap of 0.00021m, Jesus.

Yeah, Aquaman, and by extension top 20, looks pretty dead as of this weekend. Will make top 25, maybe even as high as 21.

It’s because CM week 3 only has 3 out of 7 days contributing 😛 Will be 45M+

Y I K E S Guess I had the good luck to miss those, that is quite ridiculous.

DOM overestimate was only .75M?

Sunday with a pretty serious dip, not too unexpected. Unless Friday actuals are down it’s a 3.71 IM, which is fine but lower than I hoped. Journey to 400/CW/IM3/WW remains interesting.

Making the top 20 like AQM will always be very impressive. Doesn’t get made any easier with ticket prices or market expansion, because it’s completely relative. But we’re going to have a movie in 2021 or 2022 that passes 1B but misses the WW top 50, and my reaction to that will be “hey, pretty solid.”

Yeah, it’s still a great accomplishment. 37, with probably 6+ more this year means that 1.05B doesn’t necessarily get me all hot and bothered anymore, especially for a franchise movie that was widely expected to pass it (not the case for AQM or CM though). Even as recently as end of 2012 there were only 14, so it’s going to have tripled in 7 years. There’s a lot of subjective interpretation here, and plenty of room to disagree with my stance. I just wish people would disagree with the actual one rather than making an exaggerated caricature version to disagree with Edit: Also, I want to apologize for the tone of my first reply. This is like the 4th or 5th time my comments in that thread were blatantly misrepresented, and your’s just so happened to be the one that broke the camel’s back and got an excessive response from the bottled up annoyance.

But you aren’t though. If you addressed what was actually said I’d have 0 problem. What was actually said is that 1B isn’t nearly as impressive as it was even half a decade ago — not that it’s “no big deal” now. That’s clearly true, and applies equally to CM.

The estimates were bad, kind of needed actuals 2M higher to have a solid weekend. Makes 700 a lot easier.