Cooper Legion

It could beat AoU with a 60M weekend, but that would still be atrocious and highly dissapointing. As our information changes, what numbers are or aren’t dissapointing changes as well. In May 2015, a 300 total for JW wouldn’t be disspointing at all. After June 15, it would be one of the most dissapointing results in history.

Yeah, certainly some of that can happen. But it seems like I see a lot more of : A hopes for a number that is possible, but not likely — maybe like a 90th percentile quality number We get a number that is pretty reasonable, maybe like 40th percentile A is disspointmed. A says “I’m disspointed with this number, even though it isn’t an objective failure.” B says “This number isn’t bad, your number was completely unrealistic and impossible.” A says “no, it was optimistic but possible.” B says “no it was totally silly, just look at what the number actually end up being (doesn’t follow, btw). You’re silly for being disspointed and we’re going to laugh at for it.” I just don’t understand what is motivating B in an exchange like this. Let people be optimistic when they want to (within reason), and let them be disspointed more often as a result. That’s their business.

I know I’m newish here, but it’s pretty weird to me how many people come out of the woodwork to tell people that they shouldn’t be disappointed by numbers that disspoint them. Seems like a serious failure to distinguish between objective/macro performance and subjective/micro level performance. If BP comes in with 2.5 this weekend and someone says “oh, that’s disspointing, I was hoping for 3M” then telling them “BP isn’t a disappointment, it made ~700M” is missing the point pretty hard (even though it is true).

Most recent POTUS update, a little up the page, has OW 235 and total run 447 as estimates.

Exactly. You said it was not crumbling (true). When listing evidence for that, it seemed like one of your points was that it had a big OW. That simply doesn’t make sense, and it was the only part of the original post which I was disputing — certainly not the central claim that it isn’t crumbling, which, again, I’m quite aware of.

670+430+980. We’re just leaning harder on China now.

Thanks, I’m perfectly aware that IW isn’t actually crumbling. It’s just a fun meme. My point was simply that a big OW is 0 evidence against crumbling, when you seemed to be listing it as though it was.

Record breaking weekend isn’t a point against with crumbling though. Crumbling is about the relative performance after the weekend. Like, Jumanji’s run was great, but if stapled Jumanji’s 2nd+ weeks onto IW’s first the resulting numbers would actually be an example of a movie crumbling.

Apocalypse confirmed.

It only needs like 850 OS-China to have a realistic chance at 2B.

Oh come on, of course 48 would be dissapointing.

Below 50M and we riot.

But... The Return of the Jedi actually was the last one. Or so people thought at the time. And Revenge of the Sith, similarly, was actually seen as the last one. That won’t apply to IX — everyone knows X is coming, and probably within a half dozen years.

Umm... I was also not thrilled with the Friday number, but... you know that a (Not even very) weak Friday makes it easier to have a good Sat increase, not harder, right?

I was personally *hoping* for 128, even though I knew it was optimistic. This Friday puts us on track for ~120 though, which is still a crazy excellent 53.5% drop from last week’s 3.5 day weekend.

Oh wise and powerful @Rthanos, does it please you tonight to restore balance to this thread?

I choose to interpret this as a sign that IW will have TA weekdays and BP weekends

Less than 100% from Thurs? It’s a good thing I never believe Deadline over Rth or I would have to go find some gifs of a house of cards.

First place record for “first 24 hours of presales for a film named either Black Panther or Solo: A Star Wars Story.”

Hey, can anyone remember why I posted this? Doesn’t make any sense to me now somehow.

Wow, that extra 9M on the high end really improves the weekend outlook.

But Jake, how are we supposed to feel about 749.5!? Unacceptably large margin for ambiguity.

Oh no, crumbling. With numbers like this (which are, of course, completely locked and will not be revised in any way) it might be barely above 650.

Yay, increase.

Deadpool 2 opens at the end of IW’s 3rd week. TA had a 1st:3rd week multi of 476.7/270.0=1.765 This Thurs figure puts IW’s first week at 338.5, so we’d have about 338.5*1.765=597.6 before the big competition shows up. From there it would need to make 163M to catch Avatar, or about 27.25% of its day-21 total. Thor:Ragnarok failed to do so with *very* heavy competition (21%). Spider- Man was about 26%. GotG2 24.4%. Strange 21%. Civil War 14%. Ultron 20%. So, with this model of the run Avatar does look quite safe, though passing BP looks pretty good still. I think the ~600 end of 3rd week, ~730 final numbers from this kind of run look about right for now.