Cooper Legion

True FSS overseas was what, 290? Maybe 160 from those territories, 20 from Russia+Ukraine, ~180 overall?

26.7% above Avengers Thursday, which as aa and sam already went through translates to a 130.5 weekend. I'll outline an even more optimistic possibility, since it has had better day-to-day % than Avengers every day except Wednesday so far. Fri: 37.7 (+140%) Sat: 56.9 (+49%) Sun: 41.5 (-27%) 2nd weekend: 136.1 (-47.2%) Shockingly possible, though I'd take the under. And of course, this sets a new record for a non-opening schoolday Thursday.

AIW (2.15)=BP (1.35)+AMW (800) Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

Well, that makes more sense.

More than triple the sales of Mon/Tues/Wed. Seems safe to say that many of them must be for the upcoming weekend at this point, so I think we can pretty safely say that the gap between Fandango % and BO% on Wednesday has to do with more weekend sales on Wednesday.

-10% theaters for Rampage and -0% for Panther? Top 5 should be IW, Overboard, AQP, IFP, but then an interesting fight between Rampage, Panther, and Tully to round out the top 5.

All contexts

Nice

Considering it’s not an event and has no hype, will likely finish just short of 480M (this Sunday).

Those add to about 910, not 890. Guessing it will be more like 900-905 though.

Oh, sure. I mean, if you had given me this Wednesday number 2 weeks ago I would have flipped out. Sat and Sun and Mon and Tues were fucking huge though, and this drop is pretty in line with the other smash-hit, huge-OW, surprisingly-leggy MCU films. In the context of previous known numbers, I feel this one adds very little information, it’s just a result of “IW didn’t have an bonkers good Wed hold, and IW didn’t have abonkers bad Wed drop.”

This number is not super exciting in either direction. Wouldn’t mind if actuals could come in like .5 higher.

I honestly don’t get the disdain that some people here or on reddit seem to have for wide prediction ranges. A range should be no wider than is needed to reflect the true uncertainty that someone has — but also no narrower. If you think that a movie could reasonably open as low as 130 or as high as 170, then just put 130-170. 110-190 would be stupid and dishonest because it tells people that some numbers are plausible that you don’t actually believe are. But giving a range of 145-155 would also be stupid and dishonest. In effect it would be telling people that a bunch of numbers aren’t going to happen that you actually think are quite plausible, just cause you think have a super narrow range is going to make you look smarter or something. There’s nothing smart about giving an unrealistically narrow range.

Woah. If this comes in over 20 everyone is going to lose their mind.

23.5 Yes Because we have the Tuesday number now.

Doesn’t look great for Panther having a top 5 shot this weekend. Maybe if Rampage loses a lot of theaters, but it’s PTA isn’t that bad and the new releases this week don’t need that many screens.

Just curious, are there many presales for dates past OD? If so, what % of the OD presales would they tend to be?

690 at the end of this week, probably hits over 3.3 for the weekend and then needs a less than 3 multiplier on the 12th weekend to make it. Even with the DVD release it look very good, but I could imagine a world still where it came slightly short. Edit: I can also imagine a world where it makes a run at Avengers adjusted total, but that’s pretty outlandish still

Anything above 18M today would be pretty crazy good. Above 17 is enough to make me happy.

28% week to week drop, but that’s very good considering last Tuesday was the first day we started seeing these crazy IW boosts.

Pretty sure that is @BoilingHotCoffee

Almost flat OS? Barely a better domestic drop than Avengers? We’re in the flopgame now,

Passes DH2, 8th. Passed by IW, 9th. If it loses to Fallen Kingdom it slides to 10, and then it is impossible for it to share time in the top 10 with Avengers 4 and they have to settle for a mere 40%.

Yeah, Strictly speaking Ant-Man is a phase 2 film. Looks like in a month Phase 3 will be 7 films with an average of 1.1B+. Edit: Phase 3 ends with Avengers 4. Looking like it will be 10 movies with an average gross of 1.1B+.

How’s that Phase 3 average looking?