Cooper Legion

Definitely some chance to beat Veteran with good holds, but not reaching Ode to my Father.

So I was poking around Box office mojo trying to find evidence of a “Cinco De Mayo effect” in past years... and it’s totally impossible, because all the previous cinco de mayo weekends everything is hopelessly confounded by a humongous Marvel movie opening that weekend. Maybe if they move A4 up we can see how Cinco De Mayo Sunday goes.

Let’s sail onward to R$250M!

Roughly a 48% drop from true 3-day opening, vs 46% for Avengers. If next weekend is between Avengers and AoU/CW again it should be about a 48% drop for ~60M.

Don’t you need 10.86 to beat Shrek2 for 9th? 10th does look locked.

This would be a total of over 770M, which requires just under a 4x multiplier off the 2nd weekend. Nothing even resembling a reasonable comp has done that.

So a 3x multiplier from this weekend would push it just past Shrek2 for 9th all time, yeah? That would be a medium MCU 2nd weekend multi for America, but don’t know about NZ.

Previous best was Ant-Man with 20.8%, so it’ll be down to the actuals there. Nope, Incredible Hulk with a 19.3% Easy to have a good Second Sun drop when you had a weak Second Sat

With a 37M Sun, 115 weekend, it ends up 206 short of Titanic, and needs a 2.79 multi off this weekend to pass it (quite likely). Needs 3.15 off the weekend for 700, which is definitely possible, but also quite missable.

If IW’s weekdays were “normal,” this weekend is very solid relative to last weekend but a tad disspointing compared to the weekdays. With a hypothesis that “IW maxed out capacity on Sat and Sun dramatically more than any previous schooltime opener, artificially inflating its first week,” then this is a great weekend relative both to the weekdays and the OW. As I think about it further, the latter hypothesis seems increasingly likely to be a contributing factor to some degree, so with a actuals a couple million off the current estimate thanks to a strong Sunday I will be 100% contented.

AIW won’t beat Thor3’s OW this weekend... but T’Challa might, between his two films

Wait, am I about to have to unmeltdown!? That’s a lot of work, why you do this to me IW.

Yep, as expected. Since BP only needs 2.5M more they will probably pass within a week of each other though, which is a pretty funny coincidence.

A Han Solo movie being able to open as high as T’Challa? What a joke.

Additionally, those were both viewed as the end of Star Wars. IX obviously is not, and I doubt they’d find much success marketing it like it was.

Not so surprising, is it? IW’s Thursday preview gross domestically would win the 20th-26th box office week. I imagine this is true in many markets.

Easy.

Weird how some people seem to think that 2B isn’t happening now. Even with 640 domestic or something, it’s pretty basic addition to see how it still happens.

I know that you’re mostly a troll, but 2B WW is still on. So is passing TFA, really. Despite my three comically exaggerated overreaction posts on the last page, this Sat num could reasonable turn into like a 58% drop, which is totally solid for a movie with 40M of previews in its OW figure and no holidays on the second weekend.

For some perspective on just how bad things look with a drop like this, the average of the 3 MCU movies this year will barely be enough to make the DOM top 10 (please don’t fail me now Paul Rudd).

I’ve seen a lot of reports of people wanting to use MoviePass to repeat view Infinity War, so they buy a ticket for a different movie and then just go into a screen for IW. That would be money which is really being spent to see Infinity War, getting officially counted for other movies instead. So, we should probably mentally shift about 10% of every other movie’s gross this weekend to Infinity War, just to be safe

I guess there was no hype after all props @Ethan Hunt

RIP the back to back 700M dream. And the 3 consecutive entries in all-time adjusted dream. Will we have to settle for back to back MCU releases in the DOM top 4 now ? Top 5? Will Avengers 4 even be able to pass TFA once it gets the DH2 bump? With a 2nd Saturday like this I’m even starting to fear the MCU’s ability to make more domestically in 2018 than JW made WW

Exactly. I wasn’t in the “IW will drop in the 40s” camp, or some nonsense. I was hoping for high 120s, expecting maybe 115-123. Sub BP 2nd weekend would be disspointing in the context of the weekday numbers and past MCU performances. And not, like, super disspointing. Just a bit.

It’s annoying when people are disspointed and then told their expectations were stupid when they weren’t, to be honest.