Joyous Legion

Lol, chart must not have been updated with actuals when I checked. I’ll fix that. Also, 20th place for 12th weekend would be 3.95-4.06 — definitely enough to think about beating Rampage.

BP’s ranking in the all-time lists for a given weekend or release: OW 5th (when released) 2nd weekend: 2nd place 3rd: 3rd place 4th: 3rd place 5th: 4th place 6th: 4th place 7th: 7th place 8th: 10th place (First weekend below Jumanji) 9th: 26th place 10th: 25th place 11th: 20th place again (first weekend back above Jumanji) Just for kicks, a 20th place 12th weekend would be 3.95-4.06. Hey, BOM only goes up to week 12. Anyone know where I might be able to find rankings for weekends 13 and beyond?

I wonder if Panther could pass Rampage next weekend

Couldn’t even beat the unadjusted Saturday record (on Sunday). Simply shameful.

Don’t want to rule out that -89M weekend prematurely.

Hey, with a weekend like that it’s passing 100M after all

Now we’re talking. Ye olde 4% drop.

Let the crumbling train begin

Not a lot of releases this weekend. Maybe it can gun for another top 5 spot.

Hey, you guys remember that stupid Wikipedia chart which is just Fastest film to 50M fastest film to 100M fastest film to 150M ... Fastest film to 850M fastest film to 900M and every single one of its goddamn 18 rows was just TFA? Well, IW has now taken the slot for fastest to 150, 200, and 250 (only one with an actual day difference). It will fal behind for 300 and never catch back up, but still at least it has saved us from 18 rows of “TFA.”

Thanks for looking up the stats, but I’m not sure that JW is the pessimistic % there AoU’s drop off 72 would be a 19M, somewhat dissapointing. TA’s medium drop would be a nice 24M Edit: Oh, nevermind, figured the joke out XD

Alright, that’s fair. A bit of a vicious cycle where you have this reputation as the Avatar Guy, people will bring it up, you like it and naturally don’t just want to let it go without comment, reputation intensifies, etc. In the future I personally will just try to stear things back to whatever the thread topic is, and hopefully over time everyone else will do the same.

And still they doubt the power of Feige. You will see in time.

The POWAH of Thanos.

Okay, I’ve got to level — the reason I find your posts a bit tiresome is not that Avatar isn’t impressive, it’s that Avatar is too impressive. Watching a bunch of movies do “incredibly well” Worldwide but not come remotely close to a record just sucks so much excitement out of things that it’s more interesting to think about records for “the box office minus Avatar” than “the box office.” If something, anything, I don’t even care if it’s Avatar 2, can come even within 300M I will be incredibly grateful for the proof that Avatar’s record is a real number and not some mirage, fabricated solely to fool people into believing that an impossible number might be possible. So, best of luck, I really hope it does happen, but could you possibly post about this less than 50 times a day? Everyone already knows that nothing holds a candle to Avatar WW, there’s not actually that much more to be said about it.

Of top 10 openings, TLJ, IM3, and CW are also not events. They succeeded on the strength of a past event, rather than bringing something new(ish) to the table like TFA, JW, TA, BP, somewhat BatB, and, I’m hoping/guessing, IW.

Speaking strictly domestically there. Ultron opened solidly based on hype from Avengers 1, but had mixed-good reception and in the end just didn’t capture the interest of the broader US culture. It was a box office event, but not an event for America at large, and I think the multi and total demonstrate that pretty clearly. People might have different ideas about exactly why that was. In my opinion it was just too similar to Avengers 1 — same 6 main hero cast, adding 0 new sub-franchises, simply made it a reaction of “oh, this again” rather than “wow, I’ve never seen this before.” Some people thought the same might be true of Infinity War. “Oh, it’s this formula again, but for the third time now.” However, I think what we’re seeing is that by introducing 5 solo franchises never before in an avengers film (Ant-Man, Guardians, Black Panther, Spider-Man, Doctor Strange) and [redacted details about plot], IW successfully feels (to the GA) like a sufficiently new thing rather than just the third iteration of an old concept. Anyway, like I said, it’s early still. Until next Sunday I won’t be too confident in this thesis, since I’ve seen more convincing looking things that later turn out to have been held together by pure cherry-picking and confirmation bias

The best two comps we have are The Avengers and Black Panther, in that order. At least until some cold hard numbers come in to suggest otherwise, there is every indication that this belongs with the other two true event MCU movies and not the previous 16 non-event MCU movies. That said, it is indeed a sequel, and that also provides important information. If it does turn out to be the first sequel phenomenon, it will likely have legs between those of the non-phenomenon sequels (2.3-2.6ish) and the non-sequel phenomenons (3-3.4). Something like 2.75, if I had to pick a single number this early.

Just for kicks, GotG increased about 17% from 1 to 2, very near the mean 1 to 2 increase. If GOtG gets about a mean 2 to 3 increase that would be 47%, for a 573 DOM gross. Honestly depending on how A4 unfolds that seems totally possible at this stage, though realistically the fact that it is the highest raw second entry should mean a smaller % increase — maybe +20 to +35 for 470 to 525. Avengers looks real wacky with -26% and then +40% (estimate), but I don’t think it is a great comp for the smaller series.

47% increase from 1->2, 57% from 2->3. Iron Man franchise is -2% 1->2, +31% 2->3. Thor is +14% 1->2, +53% 2->3. Of solo trilogies Cap is literally the most consistent growth between all 3, whereas the it’s the other that experience way bigger jumps for the third entry. If the argument is “the more 3 increases vs 2, the more it means the third was an Avengers film,” then it really doesn’t hold up in the slightest. Put another way, just looking at First Avenger Numbers, Winter Soldier Numbers, and Numbers from other entries, we’d expect a third Captain America movie with just the Winter Soldier cast to have pulled about 400M, and Civil War not going much over that is proof that it wasn’t being treated like an Avengers entry.

I am enjoying it, but passing it adjusted would be nice. Passing figures without needing help from inflation is extra impressive to me.

In other words, IW-Thursday would have placed #2 straight up? Adjusted TFA in our sights? This weekend just gets better and better.

Wow, the triple 700 crown, when only Avatar and TFA has made it before? Really ballsy prediction.

Going to beat TFA’s true weekend by like 30M, adjusted by maybe 20M. That’s a solid 10% clobbering. Clear as day that TFA wasn’t operating near capacity for Fri/Sat/Sun, though it very likely was for Thursday.

“Based on the numbers I’m seeing, we can confidently say IW should be headed for a 55-75M Sunday.”