I don’t think it’s particularly related to Star Wars, Disney, China, or anything like that. It’s just that medium box office performances are boring, while extremes, by dint of being less common, are more interesting. So anything that does extremely good or extremely bad in any big territory becomes an interesting narrative to focus on and talk about.
In service of that, when a movie is tracking for a 90th percentile performance, people will hop for it to overperform — end up at 98th, rather than end up at 75th. 98th is just more interesting that 75th. But when a movie’s is expected to perform around the 10th percentile, people will hope that it bombs even more, with a 2nd percentile rather than 25th percentile performance, simply because 2nd is more exciting than 25th.
In my opinion, this desire for the more exciting narrative on either extreme is a core dynamic behind people wanting to see IW beat Titanic or JL fall below Man of Steel.