Joyous Legion

Tracking is literally intended to be a prediction of the final ow. That it’s not the final prediction of the eventual ow doesn’t excuse misses That said we’ve known industry tracking is a joke for all 6+ years I’ve been here so not really sure why it keeps getting discussed 😆

Gotta beat KFP by sun or flop 😛

First time ever seeing this thread. Those folks in 2011-2013 didn’t know how good they had it…

Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty T-46 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $30.00 $31.25 $32.50 $33.75 $35.00 $36.25 $37.50 $38.75 $40.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.825 $144.75 $150.78 $156.81 $162.84 $168.88 $174.91 $180.94 $186.97 $193.00 4.9 $147.00 $153.13 $159.25 $165.38 $171.50 $177.63 $183.75 $189.88 $196.00 4.975 $149.25 $155.47 $161.69 $167.91 $174.13 $180.34 $186.56 $192.78 $199.00 5.05 $151.50 $157.81 $164.13 $170.44 $176.75 $183.06 $189.38 $195.69 $202.00 5.125 $153.75 $160.16 $166.56 $172.97 $179.38 $185.78 $192.19 $198.59 $205.00 5.2 $156.00 $162.50 $169.00 $175.50 $182.00 $188.50 $195.00 $201.50 $208.00 5.275 $158.25 $164.84 $171.44 $178.03 $184.63 $191.22 $197.81 $204.41 $211.00 5.35 $160.50 $167.19 $173.88 $180.56 $187.25 $193.94 $200.63 $207.31 $214.00 5.425 $162.75 $169.53 $176.31 $183.09 $189.88 $196.66 $203.44 $210.22 $217.00

It’s been dire overall since last Aug. Only one movie clearly past 20M tickets since Barbenheimer (Wonka right on the line tbf) and even that only got to ~25M. It’s very understandable why people are gloomy with that backdrop. June and July should finally have some big hits though so that’ll be nice while it lasts

Large majority of people tbh. Excellent employment levels, wages outpacing inflation particularly for lower income levels. Strong real consumption growth, real gdp growth, productivity, etc. Biggest macro problem right now is anti-housing regulations stifling construction leading to high home prices. That +high interest rates combine for a particular issue for those looking to buy new homes though interest rates will be coming down soon

Exactly — people think it’s bad but it’s actually extremely good right now

49.99: year of cinema collapse continues 50.01: Teflon Will saves BO for all time

That schedule is leaning hard on thunderbolts and MI, either of which could do pretty solid but no sure thing. Maybe Ballerina does pretty nice too but I’m not sure how far the wickverse will go without , you know, wick.

To bring things back to weekend prognostication a bit I think there is something to sports impacting the preview walk ups a bit given demos and I am still thinking mid high 50s possible esp with what looks like very solid reception. Hope to wake up to s nice true Fri outlook

We aren’t really arguing about different “viewpoints” or “feelings” though. The question of “does Charlie consistently overestimate in initial preview tweets, or are errors about 50/50” is a pretty cold hard numerical objective matter and the answer is about 50/50. That’s not some opinion of mine it’s just the record of reality. You can check it. Anyone who’s curious can check it. It’s just that you didn’t do so, which is mostly what annoyed me about the whole thing

Sorry but this response really doesn’t show much except that you don’t really understand how to judge whether predictions are good or not. Obviously it’s not 0% error every time, but modest errors balanced in direction is pretty much gold standard. He isn’t “above criticism” but your criticism involved some factual claims that just weren’t and that deserves some pushback as well

Bad boys: tweeted 5.75, reported 5.875 Fall guy: 3M, 3.15M GxK: 9.5M, 10M GBFE: 4.5, 4.7 KFP: 3.5, 3.8 Dune: 11, 12 Sometimes over, sometimes under. If you want to make claims about a consistent direction of error, why not check if it’s true first?

No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷‍♂️

No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est

50M is the new 35M

FWIW, top adjusted R openings (this is using an est 2024 atp so it differs slightly from the-numbers which is using a (slightly off) 2023 atp): DP1 170M Reloaded 169M (easy 200+ if Fri open) DP2 153M It 153M POTC 150M Hangover 2 120M Amer Sniper 117.5M Joker 116.5M 200+ easily possible for R nowadays if excitement is there (as we may see in July)

The Fall Guy made 6.47M in the last week, a 25% drop from the prior Th-Wed week (excluding mons because of memorial funkiness). Needs 33.2% drops on avg from here, should be very doable. Even if you pencil in 40% vs bad boys (which seems pretty pessimistic) it could get there with 28.3% avg drops after. I would say more likely to fall in the 95-100 zone than 90-95

So how are things actually turning out relative to this May scenario: TFG 28/95 (bang on) Apes 58/170 IF 34/120 furiosa 26/32/75 garf 24/31/100 Pretty good forecast

To be fair it will underperform

Lowest post memorial weekend winner since Backdraft in 1991 with 9,118,395 (~24M adjusted to 2024 atp)

Think about it porthos. If a movie was going to be good, they would just get everything perfect on the first take 😤

The heck was going on here

35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain