MagnarTheGreat

I saw Mortal Engines as my Star Wars substitute this year and had a better time than I did a year ago but clearly nobody cared.

The same people in my circle that wanted to see Jumanji:WttJ last year are all in on Aquaman this year (I personally don't care.)

All Disney Rotten Tomatoes Critic and User Ratings and Cinemascores (2015-2018):

RE: Frontloading/'Legs' @Premium George December is a whole 'nother world unto itself. Usual caveats apply: total box office has an effect, brand recognition has an effect, being released midweek instead of on the weekend has an effect, schools being out has an effect, etc. Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier January 2.88 2.66 July 3.30 3.22 February 2.81 2.73 August 3.22 3.00 March 3.02 2.89 September 2.87 2.75 April 2.76 2.65 October 3.02 2.75 May 2.95 2.82 November 3.43 3.23 June 3.13 3.01 December 5.45 4.76 all (1025 movies) 3.21 2.93 excludes 2018 releases highest month in blue; lowest month in red numbers from top openings (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

Late Night TV Talk Show Lineups Page LAST CALL WITH CARSON DALY, NBC We 12/12: Jameela Jamil, Hera Hilmar ACCESS LIVE, syndicated Fr 12/14: Ali Lohan, Hera Hilmar, Gay Men's Chorus of Los Angeles Not seeing too many cast appearances to promote the movie on that list. NBC is Universal.

This week's stamina update for the Top 10 domestic grossing films >$200M (2015-2018): Holding better than Gravity, A Star Is Born is impressively going over >$200M domestic even without an expansion now. If and where it appears and sneaks into the final Top 10 depends on expansion; additionally Mary Poppins and Aquaman are movies that could make that more difficult. Venom ended up with a longer tail than Logan did as well. Weekly Domestic Multiplier Gravity (4.91) A Star Is Born* ASIB Minus Gravity Oct. 2013 Oct. 2018 Weekend 1 FSS $55.79M $42.91M Week 1 1.419 1.542 0.123 Week 2 2.501 2.495 -0.006 Week 3 3.218 3.136 -0.082 Week 4 3.694 3.602 -0.092 Week 5 3.992 3.962 -0.030 Week 6 4.200 4.230 0.030 Week 7 4.342 4.381 0.040 Week 8 4.430 4.473 0.042 Week 9 4.486 4.535 0.049 Final Multiplier 4.913 TBD TBD Days to 90% Final Gross 56 38 Final Gross $274.09M TBD * still in theaters NOTE: Gravity received a Week 16 and 17 January expansion

I've personally seen slightly more ads for this on TV than I did for Nutcracker at least...though that's probably an unfortunate comparison to make. ‘Mortal Engines’ Tops Studios’ TV Ad Spending

Rated by the BBFC. http://www.bbfc.co.uk/releases/mortal-engines-2018 You can tell Peter Jackson didn't direct it by the runtime.

Deadline - ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’ Swinging To $30M-$40M Start – Early Tracking

ComingSoon.net - Get Hyped for Mortal Engines with Four New TV Spots

Gravity's January expansion really jacked up its multiplier. We'll have to have see if and how ASIB follows suit. With it having a longer streak of >$1M days than Gravity helps its shot to get over $200M at least.

This week's stamina update for the Top 10 domestic grossing films >$200M (2015-2018):

Sequels and established brands often have lower multipliers which drag the averages down. Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier January 2.88 2.66 July 3.30 3.22 February 2.81 2.73 August 3.22 3.00 March 3.02 2.89 September 2.87 2.75 April 2.76 2.65 October 3.02 2.75 May 2.95 2.82 November 3.43 3.23 June 3.13 3.01 December 5.45 4.76 all (1025 movies) 3.21 2.93 excludes 2018 releases highest month in blue; lowest month in red numbers from top opening domestic earners (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

TGITSW: $8.015M estimate (first weekend) ASIB: $8.010M estimate (sixth weekend)

Speaking of which Daily Domestic Multiplier Gravity (4.91) A Star Is Born ASIB Minus Gravity Oct. 2013 Oct. 2018 Weekend 1 FSS $55.79M $42.91M Weekend 1 FSS 1.000 1.000 0.000 Day 4 M 1.108 1.189 0.081 Day 5 T 1.227 1.330 0.103 Day 6 W 1.323 1.437 0.114 Day 7 T 1.419 1.542 0.123 Weekend 2 FSS 2.193 2.205 0.012 Day 11 M 2.304 2.273 -0.031 Day 12 T 2.376 2.365 -0.011 Day 13 W 2.438 2.433 -0.005 Day 14 T 2.501 2.495 -0.006 Weekend 3 FSS 3.040 2.939 -0.100 Day 18 M 3.083 2.982 -0.100 Day 19 T 3.136 3.044 -0.092 Day 20 W 3.177 3.090 -0.087 Day 21 T 3.218 3.136 -0.082 Weekend 4 FSS 3.579 3.464 -0.115 Day 25 M 3.606 3.494 -0.111 Day 26 T 3.639 3.538 -0.101 Day 27 W 3.665 3.568 -0.096 Day 28 T 3.694 3.602 -0.092 Weekend 5 FSS 3.924 3.858 -0.066 Day 32 M 3.940 3.881 -0.058 Day 33 T 3.961 3.915 -0.046 Day 34 W 3.977 3.939 -0.038 Day 35 T 3.992 3.962 -0.030 Weekend 6 FSS 4.145 4.149 +0.004 Final Multiplier 4.913 TBD TBD Days to 90% Final Gross 56 TBD Final Gross $274.09M TBD * still in theaters / studio estimate for weekend 6 ** Gravity received a significant January expansion after 256.4M Gravity's $1M day streak ended on Day 32 while ASIB's streak hasn't ended yet and may end on Day 39. A few weeks ago I took out most of the Gravity expansion and adjusted Gravity to 24 weeks: Gravity comes to $259.59M and a multiplier of 4.65 without it. ASIB first weekend $42,908,051 * 4.65 = $199.52M . And it's only off Gravity this weekend if the estimate is correct by +0.004. Seems more likely than less likely a few weeks ago at least because of the dailies being stronger than Gravity's at this point.

Ad aired during South Park last night on Comedy Central.

Rotten Tomatoes Disney comparisons (2015-present) Disney movie (2015-2018) RT Critics % RT Critics Rating RT User % RT User Ratings User minus Critics % User minus Critics Cinemascore Disney’s Christopher Robin 71% 6.1 86% 8.6 15% 2.5 A Ant-Man and the Wasp 88% 6.9 79% 7.8 -9% 0.9 A- Incredibles 2 94% 7.9 87% 8.4 -7% 0.5 A+ Solo: A Star Wars Story 70% 6.3 64% 7.0 -6% 0.7 A- Avengers: Infinity War 84% 7.5 91% 9.0 7% 1.5 A A Wrinkle In Time 41% 5.2 28% 4.6 -13% -0.6 B Black Panther 97% 8.2 79% 8.2 -18% 0.0 A+ Star Wars: The Last Jedi 91% 8.1 45% 5.8 -46% -2.3 A Coco 97% 8.2 94% 9.2 -3% 1.0 A+ Thor: Ragnarok 92% 7.5 87% 8.4 -5% 0.9 A Cars 3 68% 6.0 70% 7.4 2% 1.4 A PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 30% 4.7 61% 7.0 31% 2.3 A- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 83% 7.2 88% 8.4 5% 1.2 A Born in China 83% 7.0 74% 7.6 -9% 0.6 A- Beauty and the Beast (2017) 70% 6.7 81% 8.0 11% 1.3 A Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 85% 7.5 87% 8.4 2% 0.9 A Moana 96% 7.9 89% 8.4 -7% 0.5 A Doctor Strange 89% 7.3 86% 8.2 -3% 0.9 A Queen of Katwe 93% 7.4 87% 8.2 -6% 0.8 A+ The Light Between Oceans 59% 6.2 61% 7.0 2% 0.8 B+ Pete's Dragon (2016) 88% 7.3 72% 7.4 -16% 0.1 A The BFG 75% 6.8 57% 6.8 -18% 0.0 A- Finding Dory 94% 7.6 84% 8.2 -10% 0.6 A Alice Through the Looking Glass 29% 4.6 49% 6.4 20% 1.8 A- Captain America: Civil War 91% 7.7 89% 8.6 -2% 0.9 A The Jungle Book (2016) 95% 7.7 86% 8.2 -9% 0.5 A Zootopia 98% 8.1 92% 8.8 -6% 0.7 A The Finest Hours 64% 6.0 66% 7.2 2% 1.2 A- Star Wars: The Force Awakens 93% 8.2 88% 8.6 -5% 0.4 A The Good Dinosaur 76% 6.5 65% 7.2 -11% 0.7 A Bridge of Spies 91% 7.7 87% 8.0 -4% 0.3 A Ant-Man 82% 6.8 86% 8.0 4% 1.2 A Inside Out 98% 8.9 89% 8.6 -9% -0.3 A Tomorrowland 50% 5.9 49% 6.6 -1% 0.7 B Avengers: Age of Ultron 75% 6.7 83% 8.2 8% 1.5 A Monkey Kingdom 94% 7.3 76% 7.8 -18% 0.5 A- Cinderella (2015) 84% 7.1 78% 7.8 -6% 0.7 A McFarland, USA 80% 6.7 88% 8.4 8% 1.7 A Strange Magic 17% 3.9 51% 6.6 34% 2.7 B- average (all) 78% 7.0 76% 7.8 -2% 0.8 A average (Marvel Studios) 87% 7.3 85% 8.3 -1% 1.0 A average (Lucasfilm) 71% 6.8 67% 7.3 -4% 0.5 A- average (Disney Animation Studios) 97% 8.0 91% 8.6 -7% 0.6 A average (Pixar) 88% 7.5 82% 8.2 -6% 0.7 A average (other) 70% 6.5 70% 7.4 -1% 0.9 A- % of fresh (>=60%) rated films 85% (33/39) 85% (33/39) Data current as of early May 2018; eight newest movies data current as of October 29, 2018 I don't care about Cinemascore ('next time you see a film got a certain CinemaScore, keep in mind that it’s not a measure of the film’s quality or even what audiences as a whole think about a movie. It’s a measure of marketing, and how well expectations lined up with the finished feature.') just including it to get across the point that everything is graded on such a curve. Very few movies have been given a failing grade (F).

I only know her as "MURRRRRRPPPPPPHHHHHHHHH!" while Matthew McConaughey screamed. (I liked that movie.)

I think ASIB could miss $200M without getting the expansion treatment like Gravity... I took out most of the expansion and adjusted Gravity to 24 weeks - Gravity comes to $259.59M and a multiplier of 4.65 without it. ASIB first weekend $42,908,051 * 4.65 = $199.52M With an expansion, it becomes easier to potentially do >=$200M. And its multiplier's under Gravity after the first week - ASIB looked better early on because Gravity's Day 11 was Columbus Day instead of Day 4. The studio could find a way to drag it A Wrinkle In Time style or Spectre style over $200M perhaps if was close enough and they wanted to.

Daily Domestic Multiplier Gravity (4.91) A Star Is Born* ASIB minus Gravity Venom minus Logan Venom* Logan (2.56) Oct. 2013 Oct. 2018 Oct. 2018 Mar. 2017 Weekend 1 FSS $55.79M $42.91M $80.26M $88.41M Weekend 1 FSS 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 Day 4 M 1.108 1.189 0.081 0.039 1.120 1.081 Day 5 T 1.227 1.330 0.103 0.044 1.223 1.179 Day 6 W 1.323 1.437 0.114 0.039 1.281 1.243 Day 7 T 1.419 1.542 0.123 0.036 1.335 1.299 Weekend 2 FSS 2.193 2.205 0.012 0.041 1.771 1.730 Day 11 M 2.304 2.273 -0.031 0.036 1.806 1.770 Day 12 T 2.376 2.365 -0.011 0.036 1.853 1.816 Day 13 W 2.438 2.433 -0.005 0.029 1.880 1.852 Day 14 T 2.501 2.495 -0.006 0.023 1.907 1.884 Weekend 3 FSS 3.040 2.939 -0.100 0.046 2.131 2.085 Day 18 M 3.083 2.982 -0.100 0.044 2.148 2.103 Day 19 T 3.136 3.044 -0.092 0.040 2.170 2.130 Day 20 W 3.177 3.090 -0.087 0.036 2.184 2.148 Day 21 T 3.218 3.136 -0.082 0.035 2.199 2.164 Final Multiplier 4.913 TBD TBD TBD TBD 2.559 Days to 90% Final Gross 56 TBD TBD 26 Final Gross $274.09M TBD TBD $226.28M * still in theaters (Gravity had a significant January expansion which boosted box office/multiplier) Venom's been very consistent with Logan so far after 21 days.

I've now seen/heard three TV ads so far recently. One was on the Disney channel during Duck Tales, another was a Glade commercial co-marketing for the movie, and the other I was in another room so I didn't get the specifics of it but heard its name.

(Gravity had a significant expansion in January which boosted its multiplier/box office) Day 17 ASIB = Gravity -0.1 Venom = Logan +0.046 Day 10 First Man = Blade Runner 2049 -0.002

Venom $10M Thursday preview $32.5M Friday (incl. Thursday preview) 3.25 preview to Friday multiplier $80.3M first weekend Halloween $7.7M Thursday preview $32M Friday (Rthanos) (incl. Thursday preview) 4.16 preview to Friday multiplier $__._M first weekend Car! Game On! Car! Game On! Halloween ($24.3M) has a higher true Friday than Venom ($22.5M) in Rthanos's numbers, but it doesn't have a Columbus Day Monday to bolster Sunday like Venom had.

Hanging tight with Logan (2.56 domestic gross multiplier) and Solo (2.53). Currently Logan +0.02 on Thursday and even with Solo. Deadline currently thinks Venom will be +0.05 Logan on Sunday and ASIB will be -0.12 Gravity on Sunday for whatever that's worth.

The Golden Compass (2007) got a 2.72 December multiplier off an opening of $25.8M. It's one of the lowest in current Top 200 in December. $15M-$25M * 2.72 = $40.8M to $68.0M Their $55M is right in between those two values. Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier Release Month Average Multiplier Median Multiplier January 2.88 2.66 July 3.30 3.22 February 2.81 2.73 August 3.22 3.00 March 3.02 2.89 September 2.87 2.75 April 2.76 2.65 October 3.02 2.75 May 2.95 2.82 November 3.43 3.23 June 3.13 3.01 December 5.45 4.76 all (1025 movies) 3.21 2.93 excludes 2018 releases highest month in blue; lowest month in red The past 10 years or so in the range of $15M-$25M Movie First Weekend Multiplier Theaters Domestic Gross Release True Grit $24,830,443.00 6.90 3047 $171,243,005.00 12/22/10 The Princess and the Frog $24,208,916.00 4.31 3434 $104,400,899.00 12/11/09 Exodus: Gods and Kings $24,115,934.00 2.70 3503 $65,014,513.00 12/12/14 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader $24,005,069.00 4.35 3555 $104,386,950.00 12/10/10 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $23,244,744.00 5.73 3723 $133,110,742.00 12/16/11 It's Complicated $22,100,820.00 5.10 2887 $112,735,375.00 12/25/09 Valkyrie $21,027,007.00 3.95 2711 $83,077,833.00 12/25/08 Pitch Perfect 3 $19,928,525.00 5.26 3447 $104,897,530.00 12/22/17 American Hustle $19,106,933.00 7.86 2507 $150,117,807.00 12/20/13 The Wolf of Wall Street $18,361,578.00 6.37 2537 $116,900,694.00 12/25/13 Yes Man $18,262,471.00 5.35 3434 $97,690,976.00 12/19/08 Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb $17,100,520.00 6.65 3785 $113,746,621.00 12/19/14 Joy $17,015,168.00 3.32 2896 $56,451,232.00 12/25/15 Office Christmas Party $16,890,204.00 3.24 3210 $54,767,494.00 12/9/16 The Tourist $16,472,458.00 4.11 2756 $67,631,157.00 12/10/10 Yogi Bear $16,411,322.00 6.11 3515 $100,246,011.00 12/17/10 Krampus $16,293,325.00 2.62 2902 $42,725,475.00 12/4/15 Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas $16,007,634.00 3.28 2194 $52,543,354.00 12/13/13 Annie (2014) $15,861,939.00 5.42 3116 $85,911,262.00 12/19/14 Jack Reacher $15,210,156.00 5.26 3352 $80,070,736.00 12/21/12