LordNox

Only 14M left now for Aquaman to become the highest grossing superhero solo movie OS. It has a very high chance to do it.

How does Aquaman opening weekend compare with Venom's opening weekend in Japan? Venom grossed 19M so if Aquaman had a comparable opening that means that around 19M should be the highest possible number for Aquaman to earn in Japan.

The Shazam trailer does have a respectable 40M views on Youtube. Which is comparable to what the likes of Ant Man and Dr Strange got. Their is an interest. But the movie needs to be good to transfer that interest into good word of mouth to propell it into a good box office performance. If it also manages to get good reviews that will also be an added bonus.

This suggests Aquaman will only earn about 10M in Japan.

One thing long range tracking can't really predict is the word of mouth of a movie as well as how good a movie is. If Shazam gets good ratings as well as good word of mouth it can easily perform more than they predict.

Yeah its only speculation by now. One thing though is that Shazam for better or worse seems like very much an MCU style movie when it comes to tone and all MCU movies have got good reviews.

Yeah kinda weird. I'm only going after what the test screenings seems to imply and the RT score Aquaman got. For Shazam a good RT score will probably be important for it to overperform at the BO as well.

By the sound of it seems that Shazam will get a rotten tomato rating in the 70s or so. Many says its better than Aquaman.

What is the floor and ceiling for Aquaman now at the domestic box office?

Are there any indications that Aquaman will do slightly better than other DC movies in Japan? Or does it look like it will make only 10M?

I was thinking...will this movie be Scarlett Johansson's "Logan"? Meaning a farewell movie for her character in the MCU?

Well we will just have to wait and see. If Shazam makes Ant-man money at the BO then brand power will have proven to be overrated. Given that the general audience will then have shown to be as likely to go to smaller DCEU movies like they are to go to smaller MCU movies.

Brand is overrated when it comes to the BO. If brand was important Aquaman would have bombed coming directly after Justice League. Sure Marvel has done better overall than the DCEU but that has very little to do with the brand. It has to do with Marvel having made generally better recieved movies. Compare the rotten tomato scores and you see that except for a few movies the MCU movies have a higher score compared to the DCEU movies. When a DCEU movie gets well recieved it also earns a lot of money see Wonder Woman and Aquaman for example. If Shazam is a good movie audiences will go and watch it.

The Batfleck fans are mostly Zack Snyder fanboys who loved Man of Steel and Batman v Superman and who still talks about the Snyder cut. A pretty small group all in all. The general public hated Snyder's take on Batman.

Aquaman continues to have better drops than Suicide squad had at the same time. Suicide squad ended on 324M so Aquaman will reach 335-340M on current trajectory.

Disney has long dominated such lists. Other studios like Warner Bros rarely produces billion dollar hits. Aquaman was the first one in years for WB while Disney usually has several such hits every year.

Aquaman seems to be on track to do about 335M. The same as Spiderman: Homecoming.

I think the opposite. Now that Snyder is out of the picture the main takeaway that WB will take from the success of Aquaman and the failure of the Snyder DCEU is that the general public wants dumb and fun superhero movies and rejected the gloomy Snyder movies. So expect future DCEU movies to be lighthearted movies with lots of quips and action and see the BO numbers expand like Aquaman. I think the era of Snyder flops is over.

Will the trailer to Shazam be released this week or the next? I don't think they will hold the trailer off longer than that.