misterpepp

This is true, but I do want to add that licensing deals for streaming services are still pretty lucrative even if they're not providing the money that home video used to provide back in the crazy days of its peak. Sony's Netflix partnership seems especially valuable, as does Bleecker Street's deal with Showtime/P+ (In fact, the latter is probably how Bleecker St. still manage to stick around despite their movies typically not taking off in theaters or on VOD).

I tend to find that the whole "[X] times the budget" rule-of-thumb thing doesn't work, either because it's outdated or it over-simplifies things far too greatly. Each movie has its own individual circumstances re: budget, P&A spend, ancillaries, etc. to the point that using one blanket method to determine profitability in the theatrical window can't really be done. For instance, in the case of a $100m-budgeted movie like John Wick 4 or Oppenheimer, that rule would imply breakeven at ~$250m WW, but when you consider P&A costs and theater takes, that would be insinuating that those titles only had around $25-50m marketing spend each, which they very much did not. If I were to take a guess at a solitary breakeven point for those titles (although I do agree with AniNate that these points have a little too much significance), I think they'd be somewhere in the mid $300m's to low $400m's worldwide (that would just be on theatrical gross alone, not considering the plentiful profits down-the-road). To clarify, I'm not trying to argue with any users over this, nor am I trying to make this about Dune 2's profits, I'm speaking more in a general sense.

Early Access shows will play on May 1.

American Society tix on sale March 5

Immaculate on sale March 7

Fall Guy tix on sale March 12

At least two major chains put these tickets up early, for whatever reason. The others should theoretically have them up on the 1st.

My reliable go-to guy says Interstellar will be getting a re-release this summer (although could be as late as September), with at least IMAX on board. Additional aside, you can now buy concessions on Fandango starting today.

Knox Goes Away tix should be on sale this Tuesday, Feb 27.

Monkey Man tix on sale March 11

Love Lies Bleeding tix on sale March 1. Remake of Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead opens April 12, tickets on sale Feb 27.

Feb 29 for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire tix

One Life tix on sale tomorrow.

This might actually just be a green-band version of the trailer that's already out, notice that the website doesn't have the original trailer even rated at all. Still, might be some new alternate jokes/shots to replace the raunchier stuff. Whoops, had to click the drop-down. I still stand by my theory of an additional cut-down trailer for theaters, though. Maybe some sort of promo thing, those often get thrown into these rating sites as well.

Looking like Arthur the King will be on sale Feb 28.

You posted that about an hour too soon! Was a late night drop.

I actually had this exact same issue. Had to leave my first attempt at seeing it because somebody decided to vape and talk over the first half-hour or so. Went to a later showing with only a handful of people who were much better behaved.

DL just said Lisa Frankenstein's Thursday was ~$700k (I also second the thanks for @vafrow, I don't track here but I always appreciate those who go out of their way to post something helpful for others!)

Imaginary tix on sale Feb 20

I would recommend December 13. Similar pre-holiday slot that Wonka opened to successfully, and it'd likely only be going up against the animated LotR movie, which targets a pretty different audience. Karate Kid is probably moving. Only real competition would be the following week with Mufasa/Sonic 3, but one of those is surely vacating. With the holidays, it'd still have a long run regardless.

Important to keep in mind that Sonic 3 is opening on a pre-Xmas weekend. A portion of what its OW would've been had it opened on a normal weekend will be reallocated to the Xmas/New Year holidays, like many family-targeted December openers. I actually agree with @Bob Train, at least regarding the OW. I think solely because of this, it opens under 2, but legs out significantly ahead of 2's domestic and WW totals.

I do agree this is largely the case, but there’s still publicly available numbers on sites like Tribute.ca and, in some cases, the official comScore website’s public weekly rankings that aren’t also over on the aggregates. On another site, I only just today learned the theater count for one of the new wide openers of this week! Perhaps I’m confused why some data is shared over there but not anywhere else (In a stranger case, for instance, Demon Slayer: Swordsmith had a couple weeks worth of data that ended up on the aggregates, but for its later weeks I was only able to find those numbers through Tribute). I guess this is just part of my own personal frustrations. It’s a lot of hunting down numbers rather than everything being in one nice place. 😞

Here's a number for Friday, can't seem to find anything for the full weekend yet. To go off on a little bit of a tangent, it seems way too hard to get US/NA numbers for some of these limited and foreign language titles, end up having to scour through third-party sources and more obscure websites to find anything. I wish smaller distributors would be more proactive in their reporting, but I also wish BOM and The-Numbers would actually post all of the data that goes into ComScore. Jungle Bunch 2, Fighter, Warning 2, etc. are all indie/foreign titles that have weekend estimates available on CS that aren't on those websites.

Think Tenet still holds the record for lowest 3-day wide domestic opening for a $200m+ budgeted production at $9.3m, though obviously that comes with a huge asterisk. This should be second-lowest?

Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training tix on sale tomorrow