Aurora
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
Aurora replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
I don't know if this is suppose to go here, but I always wondered, if memory serves right, the 2D version of Avatar was pulled out of theatres early but the 3D version was allowed to stay. Did this have any notable impact on Avatar's final total? Could it have made more then 204M? -
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
Aurora replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
So how much do you think should be a reasonably expectation from Japan for Aladdin when it comes out? Beauty made a little over 100M. I'm also curious to see how well Lion King could do. I want to make a bullish prediction and say it could make 200M+ but I'm no expert on this haha!- 23,631 replies
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I LOVED it. Not perfect but very entertaining. I thought it wouldn't do well but that's because I put too much stock into the "controversy/backlash" online from the casting, genie and other new plot points. All the people I know irl and on my personal social media accounts weren't aware/never heard or cared about said "controversy". many of them liked the movie. And it's Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes is 93%. I think it can do 200-250M domestic. Maybe 300M is a little too high unless it has very good legs (and that's not out of the question). I wonder how it will preform in Japan...
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Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)
Aurora replied to sfran43's topic in Numbers and Data
If it's any consolation, Titanic made 600M domestic and 1.24B overseas in 1997/1998 (and before 2012 re-release, no premium formats to help bolster everything) and I believe it made more then double the previous record holder (Jurassic Park). While records will be beaten and numbers will keep getting bigger, To me Titanic's numbers are way more impressive then the numbers that Avatar and Endgame made. -
Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)
Aurora replied to sfran43's topic in Numbers and Data
I'll go middle ground. 42M Friday, if we compare it to the previous Avengers movies, a 45-60% increase on Saturday followed by a 20-25% drop on Sunday gives a total of 149M-163.5M second weekend. The Saturday jump could be much bigger though. -
Avengers: Endgame Thursday Thread: DHD 21.7M
Aurora replied to FlashMaster659's topic in Numbers and Data
I really don't understand the "adjusted" argument. In this day and age movies keep breaking IMAX, 3D, 4D, whatever premium format records and despite some reports claiming that "3D is dead", many big blockbuster movies can make around half (or more) of their opening weekend from 3D/IMAX/3D IMAX/whatever premium formats alone. So unless movie theatres or studio CEOs start telling us exactly how much tickets were sold, I normally ignore the adjusted argument. Anyways, if it ends up with a 21.5-22M Thursday, I can see around a 100% increase today, then a 50% increase on Saturday and a drop of 20-25% on Sunday for around a 160M finish. -
Given how big Let It Go was and how it seems like many girls/women of all ages I knew watched the movie, I'm kind of shocked Frozen made "just" 400M domestic. It's been 6 years since the original and it seems to promise more adventure and possibly more catchy songs so I think it has big shot at making more domestically then the last one.
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Wonder Woman had strong legs because many of its tickets were being bought by women, older people, families and a few other groups who view movies infrequently as word of mouth spread. I think WW 1984 will have a much larger opening weekend because of the younger crowd and a roughly equal male/female split. its legs will depend on re-watches and if old people/other infrequent movie going groups who came out for her first movie will come around a second time and watch the sequel.
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If that 34.5M sticks, following the other three Avengers movies it's Wednesday drop could be around 23-28% and all 3 previous Avengers movies dropped around 8.5-9% from their first Wednesday-Thursday numbers. Possible Wednesday: 24.8-26.5M Possible Thursday: 22.3M-24.2M. Off the top of my head, I think the only movie that had a Thursday number above 20M that didn't open on Wednesday was Force Awakens. It increased 80% from its first Thursday (27.4M) to get a 49.3M second (Christmas) Friday. And Avengers 1 and Infinity War increased 47-48% from their second Friday and dropped 21.5-28% on Sunday. So following that: Possible Second Weekend: Friday: 40M-43.6M Saturday: 59.3M-64.5 Sunday: 42.7M-50.6M Total: 142M - 158.7M (55-60% drop) EDIT: 160M-200M+ is very much possible depending on the Friday/Saturday, assuming its Thursday is around 22-25M.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
Aurora replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
Funnily enough, wasn't IW beaten by Conan last year? Personally my three highly anticipated runs in terms of Hollywood movies in Japan are Frozen 2, Aladdin and Lion King. Beauty did like 12.4B there and we know how big Frozen was so it's gonna be interesting to see the likely drop off in Frozen 2 and if Aladdin/Lion King can match or exceed Beauty's gross there.- 23,631 replies
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
Aurora replied to Corpse's topic in International Box Office
Hi! I'm just wondering does any Japan box office expert think that Detective Pikachu will be a giant hit there? I know Japan aren't big fans of Western movie adaptations of their properties, and I can only speak for the Japanese friends I know but they all felt indifferent towards the trailer.- 23,631 replies
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So since the Friday estimates are pegged at about 61.4, Saturday so far is about 52-54. Other March openers typically dropped around 23-33% from Saturday-Sunday so my guess given all the estimates we have right now: 61.4M Friday, I'll go the middle route and say 53M Saturday, Sunday: 35.4-40.8. So the total is around: 149.8M-155.2M.