Menor the Destroyer
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Posts posted by Menor the Destroyer
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Little Mermaid MTC3
Shows: 2885
Seats Sold: 2252/612517
Obviously don't have a great comp, but going by the current number for GOTG3 and making a rough guess as to how much of that was from D1, it's probably around 1/6 of that start, so probably a bit lower than what I've seen in some of the other reports. GOTG3 today was missing data from a few theaters so no data from there. Will go back to GOTG3 until release and then start updating Fast X and this.
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Not too worried about reviews, I've got a good feeling about this one and all tea leaves are looking very good. WF reception was hurt less by tone and more by losing its star lead and pacing, this one may have the latter problem but at least won't have to deal with the former.
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Meh. Still doesn't feel like anything fresh and the action doesn't look like anything special.
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1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:
I am not dead, fwiw. Just figured there would be a lot of doom posts around here that I strongly disagreed with and wasn’t in the mood to argue about but that would resolve itself near release.
I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.
You have to adjust the raw number for Bat Sacto down a bit but yeah I agree I prefer it somewhat in terms of pace.
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5 hours ago, Porthos said:
Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting
Capped
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Seats Sold
Perct Sold
TOTALS
0
0
182
26942
27722
780
2.81%
Total Seats Sold Today
16
T-22 Comp:
%
Sold
T-22Total
Sold
Sellouts
Shows
Seats Left
Total Seats
Perct
Sold
Final
Sold
% of
Final
Comp
JWD
44.12
56
1768
0/179
22879/24647
7.17%
33839
2.31%
7.94m
FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.
Regal: 119/10130 [1.17% sold]
Matinee: 15/3525 [0.43% | 1.92% of all tickets sold]===
@Menor Reborn Ran out of time today to really sit down and hack out a good adjustment for F9, but I plan on working on it tomorrow
before Jedi Survivor dropswhen I have the time. FWIW, NTTD will be coming online very soon, and possibly a couple of others. So more comps coming soon — just not tonight.Thanks, btw the JWD comp for today seems off, total sold didn't change from yesterday.
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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:
Pre-covid comps tend to be almost worthless at this point...
If Women King had done better, I almost might suggest that comp...but it's too small an open (and it might have had too small a presale period).
Barring that, Fantastic Beasts 3 was a known brand and was female heavy (54-46), so it might be okay.
Minions 2 was 51% female, and was suitably a big movie and brand, so it might also give some idea (but that had the last minute teen invasion, so it may only be so helpful).
FB3 will very likely be too small as well, and I think Potter has different fanbase dynamics. Minions 2 was such an outlier in late growth that I don't think it's a good comp for anything. But I don't have any good ideas for this, it's a tougher one for sure. It may be better to wait for the 24h and just throw in anything that sold a similar volume just to get a range.
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25 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I really really really rather not use an F9 comp thanks to ATP differences plus lack of Ontario, but if I must I might try to sit down and see if the number I came up for Marvel films is reasonably predictive for genres like F9.
FWIW, it came online at T-23. But thanks to the insane length of pre-sales, the difference between the two is huge:
F9 T-23: 393
FX T-23: 764
Comp [using informal adjuster I have for BW]: 16.23m
Daily pace isn't gonna be remotely the same, either. But, I dunno, I'll think about it.
(also at T-13, I'd have to switch to an even more adjusted comp as that's when a local chain's seat maps became unreliable and I had to stop using them for the rest of F9's run)
Yeah I'm not looking for the actual value, just the pace. The pace is so far below JWD rn that it's hard to make sense of the trajectory.
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17 minutes ago, YM! said:
Different demographics. Mario while a family film skewed male so it should be more frontloaded ticket sales wise compared to Mermaid.
I'm not convinced about that at all. Mario had a great ramp-up especially considering the size. Plus female-skewing films are more presale-heavy from what I've seen.
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23 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:
Guardians MTC3
Shows: 5301 (+13)
Sold: 39191/1085987 (+1586)
So this sets the baseline pace, let's see how it increases through the week.
Shows: 5385 (+84)
Sold: 41428/1099472 (+2237)
Slightly more than 24 hours, I would say take more like 1.9-2k as the 24h pace.
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9 minutes ago, M37 said:
The caveat is that the original GOTG didn't have a huge OW, when those PostTrak surveys are taken, but found it later. It could be that the secondary audience which fueled the excellent legs or picked it up later on home viewing found it more enjoyable than the hardcore fans who came out right away.
In retrospect (having just re-watched it this week), GOTG was a bit messy, a whole lot of what would prove to be more relevant later included in the story, and a one-dimensional villain, but the irreverent tone, lack of respect for authority, and interplay between the characters is what made it a hit with audiences outside of the MCU fanbase at that time. GOTG2 was a cleaner/neater story, but a little bit less "fun" (other than Baby Groot, who was the star of the movie)
Yeah I think comparing the audience scores of the first entry to sequels is dicey (not impossible, but you have to be aware of these factors). The audience for GOTG2 knew exactly what to expect from the film and was much more primed for the tone.
2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:I think the GotG movies have more heart and charm than most other superhero movies. It's why I like them more than most over the past decade or so.
Yep. It's also why I prefer Guardians 2 over the first, I think it leans more into the heart and emotions that make these movies special.
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15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
So the pace is almost at 4K per day at Alpha. Let us hope it keeps building. But yesterday was a good day for sure.
Did LM presales start just this morning or yesterday night?
Ant 3 pace was 6100 after the premiere which made the comp drop but it dropped to 4400 today. I'm hopeful that Guardians can get close to or surpass the pace today without any help from the premiere or reactions/reviews. That would also put less pressure on having a really high review bump.
LM I believe started last night at midnight but the Fandango alert came this morning.
7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:I keep waiting to see some significant upward movement, but it looks like if that is to happen it likely occurs after the review embargo lifts on Friday (assuming the reviews are strong). It's frustrating to see that it is arguably in a worse position today than 8 days ago.
Every day I look at this and just think, it is running out of days to improve.
I wouldn't put any hopes on the BP2 or Thor comps improving significantly until after reviews. The AM3 comp is very likely going to start moving up from tomorrow's update.
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4 hours ago, Porthos said:
Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting
Capped
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Seats Sold
Perct Sold
TOTALS
0
0
182
26961
27725
764
2.76%
Total Seats Sold Today
9
T-23 Comp:
%
Sold
T-23Total
Sold
Sellouts
Shows
Seats Left
Total Seats
Perct
Sold
Final
Sold
% of
Final
Comp
JWD
43.21
56
1768
0/179
22879/24647
7.17%
33839
2.26%
7.78m
FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.
Regal: 119/10130 [1.17% sold]
Matinee: 15/3525 [0.43% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]I forget exactly when it started, is the F9 comp coming soon?
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21 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:
So guys, I need a little help if possible.
I am considering (will depend if I will have enough time outside college and job) to start tracking some major releases here in Brazil, since it's a thing that no one does over here yet and That Waluigi Dude provides basically all data of Brazil box office by himself and he does a great job at it, but I think it would be nice to give the Brazil thread more information and interactivity. So I want to ask some advices you might know for a beginner like me. Is it difficult to run a script for it? Where is the best place to keep the data? and those kind of things.
I would appreciate a lot the insight of the masters of tracking that we have over here.
As far as scripts, I'm not sure how much coding experience you have but I think there are plenty of resources online for web scraping. You'll have to check the individual website to see which method works best. I tend to use Python, there are some basic web scraping libraries like BeautifulSoup and such or there is browser simulation like Selenium for pages that need to render JavaScript to show the seatmaps. Generally you want to find all the showtime links for a particular movie and be able to navigate to each link and count all the seats (Inspect Element is your friend in terms of finding out the particular page structure and what to search for in your code).
As far as keeping the data I think a spreadsheet of some sort is the best format.
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4 hours ago, M37 said:
Even if it were to match Monday sales over the next 3 days, it would be another 9K+ for ~124K total, and IMO more likely the acceleration begins and we see ~4.5x Mon over that time for 127-128K by T-7. I'm hesitant to rely much on Thor's daily pattern due to the shorter sales window and July 4th holiday, but BPWF should be a decent barometer for the rest of the run
My base case is that I think it'll be more or less steady from yesterday on Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe a larger jump on Thursday with the premiere into the 4k+ range (so just about 125k), and then assuming fairly good reviews a sizeable jump on Friday to a daily pace of 8k+ (as we've seen with reaction bumps for other movies and this is a double catalyst of reactions+reviews). From there I think it paces around 80% of BPWF dailies (raw numbers) for the rest of the run, with perhaps a worse Sat+Sun as the review bump wears off a bit but a somewhat better Tuesday+Wednesday trend as BPWF did have the midterms sucking up media attention. That will put it close to 19m previews.
(I did read your post fully and I know it would be an outlier going by growth rate, but I just feel like this has good reason to behave abnormally. Is it my bias trying to create a better scenario for this? Perhaps, but I don't think it's unreasonable that buying patterns for the MCU have shifted a bit with repeated disappointments and more pertinently that the very late premiere relative to recent big MCU films also creates some modeling issues. We'll see how it goes. If it lands more in the range that you've predicted then props and that would be a big win for modeling by growth rate)
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On 4/24/2023 at 10:38 AM, Menor Reborn said:
Guardians 3 MTC3
Total Shows: 5288
Total Sold: 37605/1080635
This is the first time I'm tracking this chain and the ratio of reserved/non-reserved seating makes it difficult to compare with other data, so no comps as of now. But it'll be nice to have this for upcoming CBMs like Flash/Spiderverse etc.
Guardians MTC3
Shows: 5301 (+13)
Sold: 39191/1085987 (+1586)
So this sets the baseline pace, let's see how it increases through the week.
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25 minutes ago, stripe said:
And is it possible to gain 200k from now on?
Yes. It needs strong reviews. BW added 160k from this point, Guardians pace is similar to what BW was doing but BW already had the reviews out. If Guardians reviews can provide a further catalyst then that number is reachable. I expect them to do just that, but review bumps are not always predictable.
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16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
20m previews will need alpha to hit 360K. Say 120K final day it will need 240K by end of Wednesday.
Something like
125K T-7 // Thursday around 6K
138K T-6
151K T-5
168K T-4
188K T-3
210K T-2
240K T-1
360K finish
Can this happen @charlie Jatinder/ @M37 / @Menor Reborn
I think the finish is doable, the most optimistic part seems to be 6k Thu, if it gets there then the rest just seems like a normal MCU trend (I would say probably drop in pace on T-5 with that being Saturday post reviews followed by a bigger recovery on T-4). But we need to either see strong recovery this week or a big bump post reviews.
For 100m I guess it would only need 16-17 and I don't think that needs anything special, it just needs to not collapse like AM3. The smaller starting value makes it easier to have a higher growth rate compared to the big 2022 comps.
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9 minutes ago, vafrow said:
With regards to GOTG3 avoiding it's worst case scenarios, what's the more likely variable to really shift. Do we think that preview number currently in the $14-15M range can push up to $16-17M or more potentially, or is it more likely that it stays close to forecast, but the internal multiplier exceeds what we've been seeing out of Marvel in the 5-6X range, and see that leg out to 7-8X or so.
The preview comps can absolutely increase significantly with a good final week. As for multi it should be able to clear 6, but 7-8x is impossible.
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Guardians 3 MTC3
Total Shows: 5288
Total Sold: 37605/1080635
This is the first time I'm tracking this chain and the ratio of reserved/non-reserved seating makes it difficult to compare with other data, so no comps as of now. But it'll be nice to have this for upcoming CBMs like Flash/Spiderverse etc.
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I am not worried about Guardians opening under 100 or anything like that either. T-17 to T-10 was bad, but I think those days are still more in the fan buying period of sales. From T-10 you generally see movies with longer PS periods start to bump and I think that's where the GA starts paying more attention to sales. My expectation is that Guardians will play more like other MCU sequels and have bumps throughout this week rather than AM3 which stagnated after reactions. If it does so then after its review boost on Friday it can pace on par with WF/Thor and way ahead of AM3, which would lead to a strong final week. Of course this could all be denial as the Guardians are my favorite MCU characters and I don't want to see this flop, but I do think that the fanbase/GA interest ratio here is much different than AM3 and that will show this week. If by next Sunday the relative pace hasn't improved too much vs Thor/WF and is closer to Ant-Man then I will start to get on the doom train.
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6 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
With the social embargo lifting today and most reactions seems to on positive side could we see a catalyst in sales today or tomorrow? Most of the reactions are in French so maybe it won´t reach the domestic audience? Doesn´t seem like there will be any more screenings then the one they had today before the LA premiere on Thursday night so if not Friday it is?
Maybe a small boost, I doubt anything like what the usual post-premiere boost of double or more is.
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3 hours ago, Porthos said:
Huh. Ahsoka showing up here long before I expected it to.
Yes, the double whammy of an exceptionally buzzy trailer + Week of Mando Season Finale explains the placement (these charts are updated once a week on Mondays, from what I've seen). On the other hand, for this to break into the Top Five about three and a half months before release? Even if it is a certainty that it will drop back down to earth in the coming weeks?
As I said: Huh.
Trailer kinda felt like it had more buzz than any of the SW trailers since Kenobi. I feel like this show in particular though is something that could very easily overindex with an online fanbase so who knows how it translates to viewership.
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Hmm...I have mixed feelings. It was entertaining but didn't really have the impact of previous season finales.
SpoilerI don't get the point of bringing Gideon back only to have him lose so pathetically. It's getting repetitive.
Action for the most part was great, particularly the jetpack fights.
In general I feel like Din's story meandered around this season and the finale continued that, I didn't really feel the stakes in his fights. Bo-Katan vs Gideon on the other hand felt a lot more exciting because we've been given a lot more meat to her story this season.
Also the ending serving to reset the show probably will make for a better and more cohesive S4, but also continues the feeling of this season being a bit of the copout of the most intriguing possibilities suggested by the S2 finale (particularly for Din's story).
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I thought the Guardians clips were fine and the Marvels trailer was good. Have never had a problem with humor in superhero movies except Thor 4.
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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
90+ seems doable from these reactions, I think it'll have WF reviews at minimum. Not sure if the animal cruelty thing might turn people off (it surely will at least a bit, hopefully not too much).