Menor the Destroyer
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Posts posted by Menor the Destroyer
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14 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:
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I was thinking about this a little bit franchise history of 60 40 40 is… eh
The only expecteds that make me nervous are Mufasa and Thunderbolts
I would not even put Mufasa under expected, I don't think it gets to 100m at all. Feels like a movie with little demand unless it's very very good.
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I think it'll be closer to 10m including Mon from most of the updates here. Walkups were decent, not spectacular but enough to preclude the worst case.
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7 minutes ago, DAJK said:
Sub-50 is impossible at this stage. Even mid-50s fairly unlikely since walkups today were decent. It seems to be heading for the low 60 range but I'll be curious for the final alpha Fri ps update if we get one.
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29 minutes ago, ZackM said:
169k
The Flash - Eastern Time Zone The Flash - Central Time Zone Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3 Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3 3:00-3:59 13,627 9,185 0 3:00-3:59 8,427 4,738 0 4:00-4:59 5,628 5,184 20,417 4:00-4:59 2,251 2,498 14,321 5:00-5:59 3,025 2,790 8,521 5:00-5:59 1,664 1,318 6,108 6:00-6:59 17,371 13,100 11,434 6:00-6:59 10,022 7,522 7,891 7:00-7:59 16,425 14,670 24,802 7:00-7:59 8,148 8,102 18,911 8:00-8:59 5,852 6,654 17,147 8:00-8:59 2,505 3,320 12,096 9:00-9:59 7,489 9,910 9,304 9:00-9:59 3,506 5,131 6,259 10:00-10:59 8,081 4,485 4,470 10:00-10:59 3,051 1,913 4,238 11:00-11:59 1,176 315 4,552 11:00-11:59 295 106 2,723 12:00+ 94 201 115 12:00+ 16 0 106 The Flash - Mountain Time Zone The Flash - Pacific Time Zone Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3 Showtimes Sales Black Adam JW3 3:00-3:59 2,092 1,400 0 3:00-3:59 7,708 5,154 0 4:00-4:59 776 578 4,138 4:00-4:59 3,459 3,288 10,640 5:00-5:59 332 313 1,914 5:00-5:59 1,800 1,227 5,631 6:00-6:59 2,043 2,139 2,145 6:00-6:59 8,808 7,272 7,303 7:00-7:59 2,313 1,796 4,708 7:00-7:59 6,735 7,187 12,380 8:00-8:59 616 769 3,202 8:00-8:59 3,122 3,000 11,173 9:00-9:59 426 1,138 1,791 9:00-9:59 3,718 5,812 6,175 10:00-10:59 570 233 1,009 10:00-10:59 4,180 3,607 3,426 11:00-11:59 6 70 512 11:00-11:59 1,500 721 4,112 12:00+ 10 0 37 12:00+ 122 0 804 Feels like maybe low 180s final? Your update for SV2 about an hour later was 314k and it added another 14k from there.
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12 minutes ago, M37 said:
Fwiw, I still have your expected final sales at 5200, or ~1600 for final day, and pace has even picked up a bit, so maybe ~5400 now
That's still well below +1400 from this point though. I would be quite surprised if it did 1400 in the final update from just 634 in the initial one. Probably more like 1k.
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34 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Think thats a very solid number, its just about ahead of Black Adam and Transformers finals without including walk ups at all, + fan screenings and higher prices. Should be able to get 200k+ by end of night with ease no doubt
200k would be very, very difficult from here actually. I would guess 185-190.
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14 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Impressive special effects used to be something people gushed about years ago, but that seems largely gone.
Michael Bay'd first Transformers film is the last time I remember a consensus "holy fuck that was insane" around special effects in a film.
....we just had one a few months ago lmao
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25 minutes ago, excel1 said:
No way it was only at 115k last night, that would mean Wed barely increased from Tues and that the far today, it has added 8k in tickets between midnight and 10 am eastern time when sales are no doubt very spare, even on the day release. It was probably near 120 and trending up big. 200k+ should happen with relative ease. 😎
Jurassic Got $17.5m out of 250k admissions; Flash get 80% of that number with a slightly higher avg ticket + all the advanced show times...$15m previews maybe??
No, because JWD's numbers were far stronger outside of Alpha.
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3 minutes ago, Maggie said:
what does PITA mean?
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13 minutes ago, excel1 said:
LOL I know, Bobzaruni. I was merely highlighting that they cherry picked by answering w/ just the preview # as opposed the entire OW which would be much more favorable.
I guess if mid-60s counts as favorable to you lol. JWD had already established its backloaded sales pattern relative to CBMs at this point, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. Flash following those walkup trends wouldn't work some type of miracle.
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20 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Flash following Jurassic World presales to talks up percentage would be a great number.
It would actually be the same 9-10 that we've been discussing.
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5 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Flash may be doing "fine" too and we just don't know it yet because comping to 1 yr old + Marvel films looks horrible while most recent non-Marvel films are a bit more friendly.
You keep spamming this line and don't seem to realize that most people are using "recent non-Marvel films" and they still look horrible.
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12 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:
Scrolling through reactions I would say they're decent, not great. But honestly reactions to the first two episodes of six aren't really meaningful anyway, most important is how they stick the landing.
You just have to actually read between the lines, it was pretty clear that they weren't the super enthusiastic reactions you'd see for something which would be raved.
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Fri is feeling like 1.6x Thu to me looking at various samples. Given that summer Sat tends to be pretty weak, that's not impressive even with expected great Sun hold. Think IM will be around 6.
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First trailer did pretty well, I'm curious to see how the second trailer does. I feel this could open bigger than Flash domestically.
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1 hour ago, Napoleon said:
Take the pessimistic predictions with a grain of salt. I remember when the tracking thread was pointing out less than $20m for Shazam 2's opening weekend, and under $100m for Guardians 3. At the end of the day, The Flash is a comic book movie with many recognizeable characters in it, from movies that did very well at the box office. It will have better walk-ups and better legs than it's required for it to be at the low-end of projections. I understand why people will entertain the possibility of this doing the worst case scenario but I don't think that's a very likely scenario, simply because to me this doesn't seem like a movie everyone will ignore, it has some appeal.
I mean...this is why you'd expect walkups to be low for it. Legs can be high, sure.
Also this sub-100 for Guardians thing needs to be corrected, many in the tracking thread were never that low and I don't think anyone was that low this late in the run. Shazam 2 indeed looked very bad, but it had reviews release very late which messed with thing.
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Scrolling through reactions I would say they're decent, not great. But honestly reactions to the first two episodes of six aren't really meaningful anyway, most important is how they stick the landing.
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5 minutes ago, M37 said:
So what I'm gathering is that Barbie shows will be full of unmarried, child-free, higher earning women under 40?
In all seriousness, would love to get my hands on more detailed demo data like this. And from a tracking perspective, don't get too excited about an early sales rush, would absolutely expect a MUCH flatter final week of sales. And frankly, for similar reasons, same applies to the Oppenheimer based on those breakdowns
I mean, I do, what of it? Lots of random and interesting things in between the named purpose of the account
I think the raw level is mostly useless, but I remember seeing similar poll where Gran Turismo was higher than both Barbie and Opp for whatever that's worth lol. But yeah I agree that both movies should be pretty presale-heavy (final week/previous days) based on this data. Barbie in particular is gonna be a pain to comp at first.
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30 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:
Yea I don't think it'll be (8 x 5.5) bad but at this point I'm expecting (9.5 x 6-6.5).
I think 8 is mostly off the table after yesterday, it stopped the bleeding in most samples.
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6 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:
Hm, didn't this same NRG predict that Transformers was gonna open somewhere within $30-$40?
Nope, I think they were in fact slightly higher than what it ended up opening to.
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8 minutes ago, El Gato said:
For what it’s worth, Blue Beetle has a much better views/likes ratio than all the previous DC films released in the last 3 years (outside of the Batman of course).
it’s in the 400K-500K range on YT, similar to Black Adam but way above The Flash (200K range), Shazam 2 (100K range), TSS (100K range) and Birds of Prey (300K range). The Batman (1M) and WW84 (700K) beat it though… maybe a 40-50M opening is in the cards? Hoping for one in the 50’s
You have to add in the WB channel numbers for Flash trailer 1 but even then Flash is barely ahead. Plus movies from a year ago will probably be higher as trailer likes were higher in general on YouTube then but I do agree (hence why I made the initial post). If it's well-reviewed and the Hispanic angle actually strikes a chord I wouldn't be surprised with it beating Flash OW. Curious how the second trailer will do.
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38 minutes ago, emoviefan said:
The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad. yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.
Thing with both of these is they accelerated a lot in the final week, they both did have reviews drop fairly late which was a helpful catalyst for buzz even though neither got great reviews (but within expectations for their franchises).
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1 hour ago, TMP said:
I mean, idk if there's much debate as to whether blue beetle's gonna bomb. I guess the next debate will be over... joker 2?
I will actually debate that, its trailer views do not look awful to me, and it at least has a fairly low budget so it doesn't need massive numbers. If it's good I could see it being profitable.
Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I don't think those had public test screenings. That said we did hear the same thing about Flash, lol