Menor the Destroyer
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Posts posted by Menor the Destroyer
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11 minutes ago, emoviefan said:
Isn't that true of most movies. Me and my friends and family who plan to see the movie have not bought our tickets yet. There are a lot of us like that.
Yes, but these trends in buying tend to happen in a fairly predictable manner and there is a correlation between the behavior of those who are prebuying a week before and those who buy late. Not perfect but it's not as if we have to just throw up our hands and pretend that we don't know anything about where this is headed.
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6 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:
Endgame destroyed them both.
Temporarily, but Pulse at least was back up for a couple months after that. In fact the period after Endgame was when we figured out how to make the best use of Pulse and were even able to project dailies with it very early on. Fandango removed it from the app in one of their updates right before the release of Far From Home.
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Woody and Buzz, Nemo, the Incredibles family, Simba/Mufasa/Scar are pretty iconic
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Yeah I think Indy is doing ok. 100m still possible on higher end.
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19 minutes ago, M37 said:
Really don't care much, was something I whipped up on a whim that seems to be working well, so still in Ver 1.0 form. Mostly was just confused when I came back to the thread and saw 2 of them. Don't even know why I chose green, usually prefer blue
Maybe this is over-compensation, but feeling like I got a bit duped by TF by bucketing the EA shows as a separate thing and missing the growth curve that was building. It was a very unusual dynamic, having EA shows with that many seats still available for a release of this size, and while I agree its not a 1:1 comp, not really sure how to adjust and apply going forward. Or maybe TF turns out to be a one-off that is best not used as a comp?
The Drafthouse Th/Fri ratio is also low (0.66), but also not that far off from BA at the same T-7 checkpoint (0.81), which doesn't scream to me a super low Th/Fr in June. Or maybe BA is the outlier among this group? Too many questions, leanings towards DC just being a different beast
I have observed that Thu/Fri ratio can be artificially better for bigger films since they have presold more into the weekend anyway. Makes Flash a bit tough to comp since it's too big for the small stuff and too small for the big stuff. However MTC1, unlike other samples is fairly close to SV at the moment (75%ish), and is pretty significantly more Thu-heavy at 0.56 vs 0.66 (bucketing in the fan shows with Thu here). I tend to put more weight on that comp than Transformers which I feel like has a pretty different dynamic in terms of audience behavior and the EA makes Fri/Thu hard to comp.
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25 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:
I'm sure it will but in the end, what does that entail at this point? Maybe 8-9 previews and a 55-65 OW?
It's a bit early to hone in on a number but I feel like it can go higher than that especially in IM. The middle of run sales have not been quite that dire and as Jat said Fri is well ahead of Transformers.
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16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Oppenheimer MTC1
Previews - 21813/256594 443915.07 1244 shows
Friday - 17547/467112 347246.77 2210 shows
I think its solid though show count is still quite low.
Really solid sales especially for Fri with still 40+ days to go. It's hard to comp this one but I definitely think 50m OW is in range even with Nolan's fanbase skewing things. Friday is not far behind where Dune was T-14 (a fanbase, PLF heavy film that also had the HBO Max release as a disadvantage). Though this staggered release is hard to read. Could you do one update tomorrow just to see the pace?
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44 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I think this is an excellent post and point.
This thread is probably one of the most accurate on the (public) net when it comes to forecasting box office previews and even we can have a giant whiff now and again (this absolutely includes Yours Truly). Just goes to show the inherent volatility baked into this little hobby.
To highlight what I mean, I was just going back to the first couple of days of pre-sales for Rise of the Beasts, and whoooo boy, we did not cover ourselves with glory. At all. (starts around pg 894 but is scattered through a ton of other discussion and goes on for pages afterwards)
Now the reaction to the sales was warranted to a degree at the time because the ticket sales WERE bad. It's the certainty though with that much time left for things to change which should be the reminder to all of us to maybe be either a little bit more humble or a bit more open to the possibility that things might change.
(and, yes, I should have tracked this all along as I've said more than once - but there was just too damn much else going on and those initial sales convinced me that the odds weren't in favor of a breakout [which just reinforces my prior point])
Mind, as it gets closer and closer to release, the variance lessens. But even then things like Minions 2 and Let There be Carnage can surprise at the very last moment.
NB: (VERY IMPORTANT NB for that matter) Not saying anything in particular in regards to The Flash or Indy 5. If I were a betting man, I def wouldn't bet on either of those exploding at the end of their runs. Just noting that every once in a while surprises like Rise of the Beasts happen.
(also should be noted that @TheFlatLannister had this pegged for Not Doing Terribly for quite a while, but even their comps as late as T-6 didn't see near 9m coming)
The thread can also be too high, though. So while it's important to consider all possibilities, that doesn't mean we should only consider variation in one direction. Just at the beginning of the year we had Avatar 2 and Quantumania which both finished poorly back to back (for different reasons). And in almost all of these cases the trendline usually has become fairly clear by now, it's just the extent of the rise/fall in expected value that is unclear. It's very rare (though not impossible) for something to truly change its trendline in the final week without some external factor like reviews or calendar.
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1 hour ago, excel1 said:
If your formula says that the Flash will open below Black Adam and on par with where Transformers is looking to open, your formula is...flawed.I came up with the Thursday projection based on the current pace and how other recent films have finished. In fact, I've leaned toward the films that saw stronger pace bumps in the final week. For example, Transformers, which was selling similar daily numbers of raw tickets for combined previews+EA, added about 108k from this point (again combined), which would put Flash in the low 180k range and previews closer to 9m. So you can see that I've given Flash benefit of the doubt here in terms of having a solid final week trend.
The FSS is based on general Fri weakness in tracking samples and normal CBM weekend trends with a strong Father's Day/pre Juneteenth Sunday. If you have a disagreement then put out your own number based on the data instead of just sniping at predictions you don't like.
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1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
Does the 10M include early showing numbers or just Thursday?With, but don't think they will do a whole lot. There are too few to make a big difference.
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:
Normally Zack updates Flash but just wanted to provide one checkpoint as we are just into final week of Flash.
Flash MTC1
Early shows - 3696/4478 86196.54 13 shows
Previews - 71450/544401 1344391.06 2816 shows +3655
Friday - 42288/810835 794916.86 4106 showsLet us see where things are on Monday.
Overall number is better than other samples but the pace is very low. Probably looking at a 200k finish for about 10m (expecting it to be around 85k pure Thu by the end of Sunday). Like other samples Fri ratio is weaker than Verse so would go 10-17-19-19 for the weekend, about 65m.
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1 minute ago, killbill said:
But Transformers and Fast X and quite frankly most movies accelerate in its premiere week. Why do you think Flash will not do the same ?
It will obviously accelerate, that doesn't mean the comp values will increase because the movies being comped to also accelerated.
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9 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Nobody is cherry picking they're talking about how heavily certain comps are weighed. Totally reasonable. If anything, you are cherry picking "Oh, well, BA had The Rock, who is walk up friendly". "oh, Shazam was a weird comic book, it was overtly walk up friendly".
Remember with BLACK ADAM that we didn't know the film sucked up a few days before release. Walk-up business was hurt in the final days relative to what it could have been as word spread that it was no good. We can have total faith in this dynamic. Flash seems to have opposite type of WOM and a weekend known for strong IMs.
We will of course see what happens but those saying Flashes going to come in in the same ball park as Transformers and Black Adam just sounds beyond bizarre. You can toss presales numbers all you want but the condition points to trends that you seem tot be downplaying significantly.
The trend is that it has been dropping against Black Adam lol. The BA comp being cited as evidence of this having a preview of 16m was in 23m after day 1 of sales! The Shazam comp was 31m! It will continue to drop as we enter the final week. You can't just take comp values literally like that.
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4 hours ago, Porthos said:
The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting
Capped
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Seats Sold
Perct Sold
TOTALS
0
0
178
23414
25148
1734
6.90%
Total Seats Sold Today
74
T-7 Comps:
%
Sold
T-7Total
Sold
Sellouts
Shows
Seats Left
Total Seats
Perct
Sold
Final
Sold
% of
Final
Comp
Bats
33.46
206
5182
0/297
31608/36790
14.09%
11757
14.75%
7.23m
BA
124.12
123
1397
0/152
21562/22959
6.08%
4494
38.58%
9.43m
Shazam 2
346.80
16
500
0/107
16507/17007
2.94%
1663
104.27%
11.79m
Wick 4
99.43
161
1744
0/113
13827/15571
11.20%
5448
31.83%
8.85m
AtSV
57.25
1285
3029
0/140
19113/22142
13.68%
9744
17.80%
9.93m
FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.
Regal: 281/5286 [5.32% sold]
Matinee: 37/2140 [1.73% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]Something off with ATSV tickets sold? It cannot be that high for T-7
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Just now, Mulder said:
Don't remember that big of a gap with Shazam but others can back that up or refute that, Transformers and Flash are very different beasts though I'd say.
Shazam did improve late but its presales were so ridiculously low that there wasn't even a proper CBM comp. Not the same scenario at all for Flash.
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36 minutes ago, Welcbr12 said:
Well, something really went completely sideways...
...that post was about Spiderverse lol
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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
It appears Quorum is saying 30-35m for Oppenheimer saying low awareness. I am not buying Quorum numbers that much. Its not yet proved its mettle. Based on early presales and amount of trailer views I dont see any issues with Awareness plus I already see tv spots for this movie.
On top of that limited shows listed have robust presales. Let us see how things go. I wont be there to track for key part of its release and not sure I will be back by its release. But hopefully @ZackM will post updates on it along with Indy 5, Flash, MI7 and Barbie 🙂
Quorum tends to be low for fanbase movies and Nolan has a very committed fanbase.
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Beetle trailer isn't far below Flash in YouTube likes (and well ahead of the likes of Shazam) I don't think that Flash not being huge means it will flop. Standalone DC films can sometimes do surprisingly well if they strike a chord even when the universe stuff does worse than expected.
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10 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:
Paging @Into the Legion-Verse
I mean we're making similar conclusions from the same data pretty much.
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I will also note that Flash sales trend is pretty frontloaded to Thu in Drafthouse relative to Spiderverse, which also matches what I can see in other samples. I think it's quite possible that the IM is more like 6, with the caveat that smaller sales makes it harder to project farther out into the weekend.
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Fairly limited review bump for Flash considering that this is the point in time where you'd expect to see bumps anyway. Will wait for tomorrow to see how it holds to take any hard conclusions from it, but it's not in a good spot considering it has no more catalysts until release.
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25 minutes ago, Porthos said:
(keeping this in the Tracking thread as this actually is about tracking!!!
)
As I was saying Off Forum a little while ago, I think how one reacts to the RT rollout in regards to tracking (and please keep RT comments themselves/comments surrounding the film over there. PLEASE) depends on how one is looking at the data/expectations.
If one was looking at the current/recent pace, then the reviews should be good enough to give a boost in pre-sales. Perhaps even a sustained boost (at least over what would have happened if it was rotten/in the 40s-50s).
If one was looking for some of the early expectations by Those Ever Nebulous "Some Folks Out There" of 100m+/110m+??? Perhaps not.
Won't know until the actual data starts to roll in.
So when I say over in The Flash thread that the current reviews are "Good Enough" I mean in the context of boosting sales over their current level.
I mean I don't know if there was a case where reviews didn't boost the pace. Even Eternals saw a minor boost. But the films that Flash is being comped to for the double digit previews values (SV, Black Adam) finished pretty well so it'll need a pretty strong boost to keep up.
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3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
You're wrong on Mario and it's to you to accept that fact. Maybe you'll be right on The Flash but for you to say "well it's families" doesn't mean anything, there was hardly any nuclear families at my showing and everyone still loved Mario. It is what it is.
You and the other guy who I can't remember his name but are also wrong on Fast X. It's not "diminishing returns" it's what the box office landscape is. $700-$750M is elite box office drawing power in 2023. Fewer films are reaching the one billion mark.
Your point is that critics and audiences were misaligned on Fast X because Fast X got an 85% from audiences? 85% and B+ aren't good audience scores.
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I think it will end up in the 70s. Probably just the initial batch of reviews was bad on RT and now it seems to have gone up.
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Menor Reborn
I think yours and Inception's numbers are a bit early to get the typical Sunday night bump, which would likely be more reflected in tomorrow's updates. Could more reflect the Saturday numbers which were generally not great vs comps (although that is in itself not a great thing for Flash).